The 10 best clubs to manage on Football Manager 2020: Man

Note: I was technically supposed to post this earlier this week, but noticed that no one was signed up for today (plus I was super busy earlier), so I'm posting a bit late, under a throwaway account! Fair warning: I'm VERY verbose, so this will be long!
Section One: Assets and Debt
As I mentioned above, I make $56k per year as an administrator in higher education. My husband (K) just got a raise to making $155k per year. He works as a lawyer, has been in the workforce for about 12 years. I won't get into too many details but he works for a small boutique firm, not Biglaw. He also sometimes gets a yearly bonus of around $10k-20k but it's not guaranteed or anything like that. K and I have totally combined finances, so the below numbers are for both of us. I have a humanities PhD but I decided to leave academia and find an alt-ac job. My current position has good work-life balance (I never work past 5 pm), but pays terribly and my university is very badly run. I'm hoping to leave higher education all together in the future and am currently enrolled in a certificate program to try to make a career transition to instructional design.
The big elephant in the room is that my husband, K, makes a lot more money than me. When we first met, he was paying off massive amounts of student loans and making much less, and I was debt free with a lot of savings, so we both spent about the same amount. Now he makes 3x what I make and we are both debt-free, so the difference is much more noticeable. We do argue about money sometimes (more in the past), but the reality is that I have a humanities PhD and will likely never out earn him, and he knew that when I married him, lol. Because of all the labor I do around the house and in our lives to support him as he works a much more intense job, I was very clear that I believed we should split our finances equally as soon as we got married. We don't have separate accounts and we generally check in with one another whenever we are planning to spend more than $100. This system works for us for now.
I also want to address the question about parental or family support. Although I technically paid all of my own bills since I got my Bachelor's degree, my parents supported me a lot by paying for my flights home to visit at Christmas or in the summer as Xmas presents/birthday presents. My parents also paid for my undergraduate degree (and K's parents paid for his undergraduate degree as well). They also gave us about $15k to pay for our wedding.
Finally, my parents recently gave me $20k as an "early inheritance." They told me they plan to do this every year (depending on the stock market). We put this money into a brokerage. I don't consider my parents rich, as they both worked hourly jobs in health care my entire life (as a nurse and respiratory therapist - both with only associate's degrees). We never owned a new car, when we went on vacation we stayed in hostels , and shopped almost exclusively at Goodwill. But they scrimped and saved and now they have over $1 million in a retirement account. So I want to acknowledge my financial privilege in that I came from this kind of background. K's parents are similar.
Retirement Balance: $186k (combination of 401k, 403b, 457, 2 Roth IRAs, and taxable brokerage account).
Equity: None, we rent.
Savings account balance: Approximately $45k.
Checking account balance: Right now, around 8k.
Credit card debt: Right now, around $3k. But we pay it off each month with our checking account balance.
Student loan debt: $0. We finally paid off my husband’s law school loans (around $130k), last year. I didn’t have any student loans from undergrad (parents paid) and my MA & PhD were fully funded.
Section Two: Income
Income Progression: I’ve been working in my current field for 3 years. I started off making about $53k and got tiny 2% “merit increases” twice. Then in July my payroll title was changed, which triggered a required raise of about $2k. (I am dramatically underpaid).
Before my current position, I was in academia. I worked as a visiting assistant professor for one year at my alma mater (made $50k for 9 months of work) and before that I was a graduate student for 7 years. I was paid $18k-21k in stipends each year and my tuition & benefits were covered. Luckily, I lived in a very low cost of living area and this was enough for me to live on without going into debt. I got my PhD in 2017. Before I was a graduate student, I taught English in Japan for three years and made around $36k per year. In high school and college, I had random jobs that provided grocery/spending money, but I was lucky enough to have parents that paid my tuition and my rent in college.
I’m currently trying to make a career change (as you will see in my diary) and enrolled in a certificate program which runs from Autumn 2020 to Spring 2021 in order to help with that.
Main Job Monthly Take Home: $7,634. This probably seems low relative to our joint income, but we max out our 401k (K) and 403b (me). I work for the state government, which means I’m also eligible for something called a Deferred Compensation Plan (457b). This is basically the same as a 401k but you can withdraw contributions and gains from the account at any age without penalty (of course, you still have to pay taxes). I also max this out, and the limit is the same as a 401k/403b - $19.5k. Also this number is before K’s raise is accounted for. It won’t increase until his end of February paycheck.
Other deductions - I have health insurance taken out (about $80 a month for me, K’s firm covers his premiums) and taxes. WA has no state taxes, so it’s only federal taxes. I used to have to pay $50 / month for a bus pass (K's was free), but I don’t pay any longer because I’m working from home during COVID.
Final note - the sum I mentioned in the headline includes a variable bonus my husband gets. My base pay is $56k and his is $155k (as of February 1). This year he also got a bonus of $20k, which is set up a bit strangely. About $4k of this was structured as a 3% matching contribution to his 401k and the rest was taxable income. In small law firms, it’s unusual to get any 401k match so this was nice.
Side Gig Monthly Take Home: None.
Any Other Monthly Income Here: We get some interest from our savings account… like $25 a month.
Section Three: Expenses
Rent: Rent comes to approximately $2,050 total for a one-bedroom apartment. Rent itself is $1886, then we have pet rent ($25 per month), bicycle parking ($15 a month) and water / sewage / gas, which is usually $120-150 (variable cost).
Renters insurance: $157.76, paid annually. $13 a month.
Retirement contribution: In addition to the 401k, 403b, and 457, which all come out before taxes, we max out our Roth IRAs. That means $500 each per month per person (for a yearly total of $6k each). As I noted up top, we match out our 401k and 403b (19,500 each) and our 457. My employee also offers a 7.5% match. K's employee offers a 3% match but it is included in his yearly bonus so it's not guaranteed (confusing).
Savings contribution: We put $500 per month into our emergency fund. We also put about $860 a month into our “sinking fund,” which covers large and small annual or sporadic purchases such as vacations, gifts, Amazon Prime renewal, car insurance and renters insurance, etc.
Investment contribution: $875 per month into a taxable brokerage at Vanguard.
In total, we save about 47% of our gross income. We can do this because we keep our housing cost low relative to our high income, we don’t have any debt remaining, we don’t have any kids or parents who need financial support, and we’re very privileged in a lot of ways. We are hoping to FIRE within 10 years.
Debt payments: None.
Donations: We budget $100 per month for donations, which includes one-time donations as well as some reoccurring donations. My husband does pro bono work as well. I would like to increase this by quite a bit, but I still have a hard time budgeting for donations because I spent 7 years living on approximately $20k a year. To go from that to making more than 10x that amount within 3-4 years is obviously something that I am very privileged for, but it is still hard for me emotionally to comprehend at times.
Electric: ~$50-100 (billed every other month)
Wifi/Cable/Landline: An extortionate $87.12 for slow internet that only works for Zoom calls about half the time. Do I really live in one of the tech cities of the future?
Cellphone: $170 (This includes both service and paying off two new iPhones. We could have paid them off up front, but it was actually cheaper by like $50 to go on a payment plan.)
Subscriptions: BritBox ($7.70), Spotify ($16.50), HBOMax ($16.50), We Hate Movies Patreon (my favorite podcast - $8.81). My parents pay for Netflix and my sister pays for Hulu, and we all share.
Gym membership: None. K and I both run and do yoga with YouTube videos. Before the pandemic, we went to yoga classes pretty frequently in person. I’d like to do some online synchronous yoga classes but find it hard to make time.
Pet expenses: Varies, but I budget $50 per month and also include an emergency fund for my cat’s vet bills in our sinking fund. She’s 11 years old and probably asthmatic, so I know her vet bills are going to increase over time.
Car payment / insurance: We own our car outright. Insurance billed yearly is $2,097, about $174 per month.
Regular therapy: $0
Paid hobbies: Nothing regular, sporadic language classes and art supplies.
Other expenses: Right now I’m doing a certificate to hopefully help with a career change. The total cost for tuition is about $5k and we already saved it up (included in our 'sinking fund') basically through spending less during the pandemic. I’ve paid two quarters so far, and the last quarter (due in March) will be a bit more - about $2.3k.
__________
Day 1
Morning: I wake up at 5:30 am. Ever since the pandemic, my sleep schedule has been shot. At first, I was so happy not to have to leave the house at 7:15 for my 45 minute bus commute and I slept in a lot. But the stress (and maybe getting old?) has made me an early riser, no matter how much I try to sleep in. I do value my early mornings with just me, my cat, and my coffee, though.
I start work at 8 am and begin by triaging my emails. I have a bunch of deadlines this week, so it’s busier than usual. My job tends to be very seasonal, and sometimes I have a ton of work and sometimes I have none and can work on other longer-term projects. I have a piece of toast for breakfast and place a Whole Foods delivery order for the following day at 10:30 am. We made a meal plan and put everything in the cart the day before ($117.36, including tip).
Afternoon: I have my lunch break from noon to 1 pm. It doesn’t really matter when I take my lunch break, since I’m salaried, but the others in my office are hourly so in the before times we used to always close our office during the same time. I have a piece of leftover delivery pizza and some spinach risotto that I made a few days earlier. I also have half a brownie – the last one from a batch I made a few days ago (K gets the other half). He also has leftovers for lunch.
I should say at this point that both K and I are lucky enough to have been working almost entirely from home since early March. An area near Seattle was one of the first places to get hit by COVID-19, and my state and both of our employers have been taking it very seriously ever since. Working from home hasn’t always been easy since we live in a 600-square foot apartment. Also, there is a three-story townhouse being built directly next door to us and I can hear the pounding in my dreams at this point.
Around 2 pm, I go for a 2-mile run. I feel like some money diarists tend to toss off things like “oh, I went for an easy 7 mile run,” at the drop of a hat, so I want to be clear – running for 2 miles isn’t easy for me; it’s exhausting, annoying, sweaty, and generally gross. Also I am very slow. But it has kept me sane during quarantine.
Meanwhile, my husband goes to our local pet store to get an enzymatic cleaner (our cat peed in one of our suitcases… I think it’s probably a lost cause, but it was basically brand new, so worth a try) and special weight-loss cat food. Our cat is an 11-year-old rescue from the Humane Society and she is a chonky girl. We had to sign a waiver when we adopted her, saying that we understood that she was very overweight, lol. Our vet recommended a special diet food, rather than just restricting her intake as we have been doing, so we will give it a try ($78). My husband also stops buy our local wine store and picks up two bottles. We’ve been doing a dry January, so this will be our first drink for a while ($27.53).
I have a phone interview scheduled for 4 pm – just a preliminary interview with an internal recruiter. It’s the first ‘corporate’ job interview I’ve ever had, since I’ve been in academia my entire life. I’m trying to make a pivot into instructional design / training and development. I’m just excited to get an interview. It seems to go pretty well, but who knows. They tell me they will probably get back to me by the end of this week.
Evening: My husband whips up a random meal of fridge remnants – pesto pasta with sausage and a fridge salad with feta and bell peppers. It’s pretty tasty with a little Sauvignon Blanc. During dinner, we play a card game we call gin rummy, although it bears no resemblance to the actual game. After dinner, I make a chocolate cake with orange buttercream frosting and we watch Cobra Kai.
Daily total: $222.89
Day 2
Morning: Up early again, a piece of toast for breakfast (very exciting). We’re out of eggs until our Whole Foods order arrives. I’m working on creating some tedious but necessary spreadsheets this morning.
Noon: Our Whole Foods order arrives around noon. Excitement! They’ve given us a half-rotten bag of romaine lettuce and substituted pecans for hazelnuts. I should probably just double mask and go to Trader Joe’s myself (our regular spot, only a 5-minute walk from my apartment). I’m just getting anxious about these new variants.
I have leftover meatloaf and spinach risotto again for lunch. Lots of meetings and more organizing spreadsheets in the afternoon. Around 3 pm, I go for my daily ritual - a 20-minute walk around my neighborhood. It’s still raining slightly but I need to get out. Halfway through the walk, I get an email from my apartment manager telling me the apartment will no longer accept debit card payments, direct deposit, or credit card payments for paying rent. In other words, only checks or money orders (?!). Ugh. Our lease is up in 4 months and we will not be renewing our lease. Our last apartment manager was a gambling addict who may have been stealing people’s identities, but by God, he kept things working. Ever since they fired him, this place has been going downhill.
Evening: I check my bank statements to update my budget spreadsheet and realize that I have been billed the wrong amount of rent. They actually charged me less than they should have. I don’t trust my apartment manager not to start charging me a late fee or something for this, so I call them up. They are baffled by how to fix this, which you would think would be the one thing you would want to get right, if you’re renting out apartments.
K cooks dinner – steak with a Roquefort sauce and glazed brussels sprouts. It’s from a French cookbook we recently bought and it is delicious. I work on classwork for my certificate program while he cooks. After dinner, I do the dishes and buy the 13th season of RuPaul’s Drag Race. I watch the first episode – lots of shocking twists and turns! I’m planning to watch the rest of the episodes together with my younger sister, M ($22.01).
Daily total: $22.01
Day 3
Morning: K has an 8 am dentist appointment, so he takes off early. He already paid for the work last month, so there’s no charge. I have a piece of toast for breakfast and get to work checking my emails. It’s 8:20 am and the construction crew building a townhouse next door is blasting mariachi music. I’m glad someone is having fun. At least the sun is coming out.
Someone at work has made a critical error, but it wasn’t me, thank God. I was the one who found out about it, but it’s still going to cause a big old headache for me. I’m ready to be done with this job. K and I go for a run so that I can exhaust myself enough to no longer be furious about said careless error.
Noon: I have leftover spinach risotto and meatloaf again – exciting. I’m busy at work but frankly, not a lot going on other than that. Still no word about fixing my rent payments. I’m not really willing to pursue this any further at this point.
Evening: I start making chili (Turkey Chili from the NY Times) and cornbread (from my new cookbook, Jubilee). K is doing some work on our investments when he announces that, somehow, a transfer was scheduled from our checking account to our savings account of $55k (?!) We obviously don’t have $55k in our checking account, so we start frantically trying to figure out what’s going on. Numerous phone calls later, we still don’t know if that was a hack, if my husband somehow mistakenly scheduled the transfer himself, or if the bank messed it up. Either way, it doesn’t seem like any harm was done since the bank with our checking account just declined the transaction. But it seems really strange and worrisome. We get to work changing the passwords on all of our accounts, just in case it was some kind of hack.
After dinner (and chocolate cake), I have a Zoom happy hour with a local friend. We occasionally see each other outside but it’s nice to have a longer chat from the comfort of our living rooms. We both love murder mysteries, so we signed up for a service where a company sends us letters with clues and we try to solve the mystery together. It’s a fun way to stay connected and look forward to something during the pandemic. The service costs about $15 per month, but I paid for it in lump sum for 3 months, so it’s not included in my budget above. I drink some wine and we vent about work (we work at the same place) before getting started on the puzzle.
Daily total: $0
Day 4
Morning: I sleep in a bit, which is nice. Get up around 7 am. My parents are both getting their 2nd vaccine today – they’re both in their 70s and I am so relieved. I send my mom a “congratulations on being vaccinated!” text and we chat for a bit. I have leftover cornbread with honey and butter for breakfast – soooo good.
Work is not particularly exciting today, but someone sends me a last-minute request for something that does not need to be so urgent. I feel annoyed. Still no word from the interviewers on Monday, and I’m beginning to suspect I wasn’t selected to move forward. Too bad. K pays for a Wordpress website for the year (it’s a work-related website, but sadly his work doesn’t reimburse him). It costs $92.48.
Noon: The mariachi music is particularly loud today. I stand out on my balcony in the sun for a while and watch the workers. It’s been interesting seeing a house go up next door in real time, especially since I’m at home all the time. The workers are balancing on the top of the third story wall without, as far as I can see, anything like a safety line. It seems unsafe, but I presume they know what they’re doing.
We booked a cabin for the upcoming weekend in the Hood Canal region of Washington to do some hiking and birdwatching. I want to be as safe as possible and not go to any grocery stores or risk spreading COVID in any way while I’m there, so I place another grocery order with Whole Foods just for some special treats for the weekend. The cabin has a small kitchen and a grill, so we’re planning to make a fancy steak salad on Saturday. I order chips and hummus, some fancy cheese and meats, Tate’s cookies (I’ve heard a lot of good things about these), a baguette, and the ingredients for the steak salad. I also order a few staples I forgot in our last order, like sweet potatoes, more coffee, and half and half. It comes to $87.41, including tip, but that does include like $30 worth of steak. For some reason, I can’t order a small amount of steak online, so I’m planning to freeze half of it for later. (I include this purchase in our vacation fund budget, rather than under our regular grocery budget).
Around 2 pm, K makes a quick trip to our local wine store to buy an Oregon pinot noir and some port to enjoy at the cabin ($59.45). This store has an outdoor walk-up counter where you can tell the owner what you’re looking for, and he brings you some options (the store is way too small to allow customers to enter during Covid). It’s fun to chat with another human being, even briefly.
Evening: After work, we spend a little time rebalancing our investing and retirement accounts. We decide to put more money into bonds and a little bit into REIT’s as a hedge against a potential crash or recession in the future. Then I start making dinner – Broken Eggs (Huevas Rotas) from the NY Times cooking site. You basically cook the potatoes in a skillet in water, spices, and olive oil, and then sauté them to crisp them up once the water evaporates. Then you add onion, lots of garlic, and finally some eggs. It is delicious. I eat it with leftover cornbread while watching RuPaul’s Drag Race season 13 with my sister – we watch the first two episodes. It’s full of twists and turns. A note about this – we have an elaborate procedure for watching shows together developed during quarantine whereby we start the show at the same with an earbud in one ear, while FaceTiming. I also have chocolate cake, of course.
Later, I get an email that I’ve signed up for HBO on Amazon Prime. I definitely have not. I text my mom, who shares my account, and she tells me she signed up by mistake. I cancel right away and luckily they won’t charge us for it.
Meanwhile, K is doing an online Japanese language class over Zoom. He’s been interested in learning ever since we went to Japan last January. I lived in Japan for 3 years so I was able to take us around to a lot of more obscure places and he really enjoyed the trip – it was a blast.
K starts a YouTube yoga class (from Do Yoga With Me – my favorite channel) and I join him for part of it before bed around 10 pm.
Daily total: $239.34
Day 5
Morning: I get up around 7 am and we go for a run first thing. I prefer running early in the morning because there are fewer people to avoid during COVID. We do a different route today – it’s longer (3 miles) but has fewer hills. It’s a slog, as always, but I feel good when I get back right around 8 am. I jump straight onto my computer to start checking work emails and my husband makes us avocado and egg toast for breakfast - it is absolutely delicious.
We talk about how our bathroom smells distinctly mildewy (yay for being a grown-up because I guess this is what we talk about now) and we buy two big buckets of DampRid on Amazon ($26.60). I’ve found this to be a necessity in Seattle. Mid-morning, I take a break from work and start packing for our trip to the cabin.
Noon: I have leftover potatoes and cornbread for lunch, and my husband has the leftover chili. We finish getting ready to leave and head out right after lunch, taking a half day. The only problem is that I have attend a meeting at 3:30 pm, so we head out hoping to get there in time. Our cabin is near Quilcene in the Hood Canal region of Washington, about a 2 hour drive or a 2 hour ferry ride + drive. We are initially planning to take the ferry both ways, but realize that we mistimed the ferry departure, so we drive the whole way instead. Luckily, there’s little traffic mid-day, and we arrive at our Airbnb around 3:00 pm.
The Airbnb is beautiful! It’s a small cabin handmade by the owner, whose house is next door. It’s very rural, with a beautiful view. It’s tiny, but has a little kitchen and a waterfall-style shower with river rocks on the floor. It’s a great place to get away for a short time. Luckily, it also has good reception and I’m able to sit in on my meeting with no problems. My husband also does a little work, and then at 5 pm we’re free!
In our planning, we decided to get takeout on Friday night, since the little kitchen isn’t designed for any serious cooking. We call ahead to a local restaurant to order burgers (one of only 2 restaurants in the whole town). It’s around 5:30 pm and the place is deserted. It’s a microbrewery, but they tell us they haven’t been making beer since COVID-19 hit. None of the workers are wearing masks when I walk in, but they put them on when they see I’m wearing one. I pick up our order - a few bottled beers and burgers and fries ($49.52 including tip).
Back at our Airbnb, we watch Big Trouble in Little China and enjoy our very messy, but delicious, burgers (it costs $4.39 to rent). The movie is very campy but fun. I love silly action movies, as you will see with my other viewing choices. We wrap up the night in a very exciting fashion, eating chocolate cake and watching old episodes of the original Star Trek.
Daily total: $80.51
Day 6
Morning & noon: When we wake up around 8 am, the weather is looking thankfully clear and even sunny! We were expecting rain, so we’re really glad. We decide to go hiking today, and we head out before even having breakfast, with snacks and lunches packed. Our first destination is a hike called Mt. Zion, but unfortunately, we run into enough snow 2 miles before the trailhead that we decide to turn back. We don’t have any traction for our Subaru and don’t want to risk getting stuck on a very narrow mountain road. Instead, we drive another hour or so to the Lena Lake trailhead, a very popular and less strenuous trail. It’s about 7.5 miles roundtrip with 1200 feet of elevation gain.
By this time, it’s around 11:30, but luckily there is still parking. It’s a great hike up, and we run into relatively few people. We always mask up whenever we pass anyone, as does about 50% of the people we meet. The others… not so much. Around a mile from the lake, we start to run into snow. It’s turned into a beautiful sunny day, and I’m loving seeing all this snow! It’s a bit slippery, but not too bad. We make it to the lake mid-day, and it’s super jammed – there’s only a small viewpoint accessible, so everyone is crowded in there. I feel a bit uneasy with all the unmasked people, but we manage to find a spot away from the crowd and sit down to eat our lunch of apples, chips, and energy bars. There are a ton of robber jays there (Canada Jays) which try to eat our chips. It is fun watching them, but I’m annoyed to see some kids feeding them – it’ll just make them that much more aggressive. Bad trail manners.
On our way back down, we get stuck behind a group of 5 unmasked adults, who refuse to cede the narrow trail to faster hikers. I’m a slow hiker myself, so, to be clear, I’m not angry at slower walkers being on the trail but have some self-awareness and let people pass! especially if you’re going to go hiking in a big group during a pandemic! We finally get back down and head back to our Airbnb.
Evening: Back home, we explore some of the trails our Airbnb host has set up around his extensive property, and then relax on the deck. The sun is breaking through the clouds and it feels wonderful to sit out in nature and feel the sun on my back. We open up a bottle of wine and have a few pre-dinner snacks (more chips and hummus). For this night, we brought ingredients to make a steak salad. Our Airbnb host has kindly set up a charcoal grill for us, so we grilled the steak and toast some bread on the side.
We eat dinner while watching the truly terrible Jean Claude Van Damme movie Bloodsport and finish up the very last of my chocolate cake. It’s amazing that anyone ever let Van Damme act… or should I say ‘act.’ I also have a Tate’s chocolate chip cookie or two, accompanied by a little port. My husband and I are truly very old people at heart, so we finish up the night watching a few episodes of Columbo.
Daily total: $0
Day 7
Morning: Unfortunately, K had insomnia last night, so he sleeps in pretty late. I drink coffee in bed and enjoy looking at the view out our big windows. Once he’s up, we get packed up and write a thank you note for our host. It was a great stay.
One of my big hobbies is birding and K enjoys wildlife photography, so we go out to look for some lifers! (The first time you see a new species of bird). Did I mention we are very old people in (relatively) young bodies? We first go to Dosewallips State Park and see some bald eagles, great blue herons, lots of various ducks, and a flock of Canada Geese, which, strangely, includes a domesticated gray goose. He’s much larger than the Canada Geese and seems to be watching over them. It’s kind of cute. Unfortunately, a lot of the birds are too far from shore to be seen clearly.
Our next stop is Point No Point (I love all the sad & disappointed names that early Westerner explorers gave places in the Washington/Oregon coast), a popular birding spot. We see a ton of birds here, and I can understand why it’s so well-known - Red-Breasted Mergansers, Western Grebes, Common Goldeneyes, Pacific Loons, and a few others I can’t identify yet. Most excitingly though, we see a whole pile of otters! They’re lounging around together on a rock just offshore and a ton of people are watching. We watch as they all slip off the rock and go hunting in the shore. It’s my first otter sighting in the wild, and it’s so cool! We also see some seals and possibly a sea lion. It’s a great spot for wildlife. We eat some snacks (hummus, chips, some sliced meat & cheese) before we head out.
I really want to come back to this area another time and explore further, but K has decided that we need to get back home in time for the Big Game. We take the 3:00 pm ferry back to Seattle ($16.40) and get home around 3:45 pm. I veg out at home while my husband watches football. He’s a Patriots fan but he still loves Tom Brady (??) so he’s happy to see Florida win. I don’t understand sports team loyalties at all, but whatever, I’m glad he’s happy. We order from a new Indian place called Spice Box and get vindaloo, roganjosh, and vegetables pakora – so tasty ($53.96). Happily, there’s enough left over for lunch the next day, since I have no plans for what we will eat yet!
I’m really dreading work the next day, as I know that it will be obnoxious. I want to get out of my job so badly, but it doesn’t look like I’m going on to the next interview stage for the job I interviewed no back on Monday. I’m feeling kind of down about it. I try to stay positive and promise that I’ll apply for at least 2-3 new jobs next week. I bake up some frozen cookie dough I had in the freezer and feel sorry for myself. We end the night by watching another episode of Columbo.
Daily total: 70.36
Food + Drink: $395.23
Fun / Entertainment: $26.40
Home + Health: $26.60
Clothes + Beauty: $0
Transport: $16.40
Other: $170.48
Grand Total: $635.11
I think this week was pretty normal for us. Obviously we spent a bit more than usual due to the weekend cabin trip, but nothing outrageous. Our largest consumer spending category is definitely food and drink – we live in a very busy area of Seattle with tons of restaurants and bars so believe it or not, we actually used to spend even more on eating out. We still try to support our local places by getting takeout or delivery during the pandemic and even occasionally getting a few drinks outside. I spent more than usual on groceries due to stocking up for the weekend away.

Game Matchups Preview AFC Championship: Bills @ Chiefs

Before every Bills’ game I spend some time, probably too much time, digging into how the Bills’ roster stacks up against their opponent’s. While doing this I specifically look at 5 matchups; Bills’ Pass Offense vs. Opponent’s Pass Defense, Bills’ Rush Offense vs. Opponent’s Rush Defense, Bills’ Pass Defense vs. Opponent’s Pass Offense, Bills’ Rush Defense vs. Opponent’s Rush Offense, Bills’ Special Teams vs. Opponent’s Special Teams. After doing all of this I try to come up with reasons “Why We Will Lose” and “Why We Will Win” ultimately leading to a prediction. Below I present 2020’s 19th iteration of this analysis for the Bills’ upcoming AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME in Kansas City. Included is a scale to rank the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage).
NOTE: If you have followed this series all season long then you are well aware that these playoff posts are significantly longer. The increased length is intended to provide more details on the Bills’ opponent, including basic breakdowns of their offensive and defensive philosophies. If this is your first time reading this post and/or you are a Chiefs’ fan, feedback is always welcome!
Bills’ Passing Offense vs. Chiefs’ Passing Defense
In 2020 the Buffalo Bills have gone from “Lovable Losers” to one of the most feared franchises in the NFL. A team which just last season was considered one built on a foundation of a fearsome defense and a mobile Quarterback has undergone a shift in perception rarely seen in the NFL. Yes, that defense is still scary (More on that later) and yes, the man under Center can still run (Also more on that later) but the evolution of two players in particular have altered the way that opposing teams, and their fans, view the Buffalo Bills. The first some may consider the Bills’ 2020 1st round pick and since arriving in Buffalo has done nothing less than stake his claim as one of, if not the, best WRs in the NFL, Stefon Diggs. Diggs has beaten anyone and everyone in front of him collecting 6+ catches in 17 out of his 18 games totaling 141 catches for 1770 yards and 10 TDs. These gaudy statistics are just the tangible portion of what Diggs has brought to the Bills while the intangible is derived from his mere presence, which has ignited a swagger not seen in Buffalo since, well, ever. Throwing him the ball is a man that has been analyzed and critiqued ad nauseum, the newest member of the Fraternity of Franchise QBs, Joshua Patrick Allen. At 5,564 yards and 50 TDs Allen has entrenched himself in the top tier of QBs, a set of players that defensive coordinators look to contain as opposed to stopping entirely and though few achieve this level of NFL success note that doing so does not preclude them from the occasional rough stretch.
And that is exactly what happened to Josh Allen during the 4-game stretch from Week 5 to Week 8. In that span Allen, who would finish the regular season with a Passer Rating (PR) of 107.2, had a PR of just 79.2. This included a game against the Bills’ AFC Championship Game opponent, the Kansas City Chiefs, where Allen had his worst Completion % of the season (51.9%) and his second lowest PR (73.4). Many have pondered what the root cause(s) of these struggles were for a QB who now will likely finish Top-3 in MVP voting, and two causes tend to be consistently repeated. The first of these, the weather, can easily be debunked. Against the Chiefs Josh Allen’s adjusted completion % (Less Drops) was 56.0% while Patrick Mahomes who, played in the same weather, had an adjusted completion % of 91.3%. It’s hard to fathom that the weather was such a detriment to only one QB that it resulted in him being 35.3% less “accurate” than the other. The second is a bit harder to debunk and is actually backed by some “expert” testimony. Just 15 days earlier in a game against Las Vegas, Allen would be hit awkwardly while attempting to extend a play and suffer an injury to his non-dominant (left) shoulder resulting in what many believe to have been a grade 1 AC Joint sprain. An injury which takes between 4-6 weeks to heal fits the timeline of Allen’s 4 weeks of below average QB play and is even propped up by 3-time Pro Bowl QB Matt Hasselback agreeing that such an injury makes it more difficult for a Quarterback to deliver a pass to his target accurately. Out of these two I find the injury much more plausible but after going back and watching the Chiefs @ Bills’ game I find it hard to believe either of these were the primary reason for the Chiefs domination of the Bills’ passing attack. With that in mind the best explanation, and what I believe to be the most likely, is that Chiefs’ DC Steve Spagnuolo simply had a brilliant game plan which the Chiefs executed perfectly ultimately slowing down the air attack of the Buffalo Bills.
The Chiefs plan was simple yet concise, blitz from all different angles while disguising coverage pre-snap. They would finish the game with 14 blitzes sending a total of 26 blitzers, 12 from LBs (Hitchens, Wilson, & Niemann), 3 from CBs (Fenton & Breeland), and 11 from Safeties (Mathieu & Sorensen). This constant shift in the level extra pass rushers were coming from often left the Bills’ OL scrambling to recover resulting in their QB being pressured on a season high 35.5% of dropbacks (His season average is 20.7%). Simultaneously the Chiefs were mixing Man and Zone coverage schemes which often included a deep spy that was keying off Josh Allen’s eyes. Allowing the Chiefs to accomplish this was a secondary stacked with “Jack-Of-All-Trades” CBs and one of the better safety trios, yes trios, in the NFL championed by a possible future HOF. Charvarius Ward, Bashaud Breeland, Rashad Fenton, and L’Jarius Sneed are all capable of covering the X, Y, or Z allowing the Chiefs to conceal their coverages and trade off assignments at will. Breeland the most notorious and proficient of the three works with hands on his assignment in order to control their movement and was flagged a total of 9 times this season, 3 of which came against the Bills. Behind them is a trio of Safeties that make the entire defense click; Daniel Sorensen, Tyrann Mathieu, and Juan Thornhill, who is primarily used in Nickel sets which the Chiefs run north of 60% of the time. Sorensen is as close as you can get to a modern-day John Lynch, a hard-hitting safety with ball skills that allow him to effectively play Center Field on deep passes. Mathieu is the afore mentioned HOF hopeful and can play anywhere from the LOS to a deep prevent position. One of the most feared defenders in all of football expect the Honey Badger to spy Josh Allen more than any other player on the Chiefs and make a few highlight reel plays at Arrowhead Sunday night.
Ultimately this matchup comes down to two things, can the Bills OL recognize the blitz pre-snap and can the Bills’ receivers find holes in the defense. From the perspective of the OL they are vastly improved since their last matchup with the Chiefs with Ike Boettger replacing Brian Winters at LG and Jon Feliciano returning from injury to man the RG position. These two bring a physicality to the OL which was surely lacking prior to their arrival. At the receiver position there is a bit more concern with Gabe Davis a DNP and both Cole Beasley & Stefon Diggs limited as of Thursday night’s injury report. It is a near certainty that both Beasley and Diggs will see the field Sunday night, but the possible loss of Gabe Davis looms large. The good news for Bills’ fans is that this is the exact reason the Bills went out and got Kenny Stills so if Gabe Davis is truly a no go expect to see Stills for the first time in a Bills’ uniform. There are two more dark horse candidates for a big game through the air, WR Isaiah McKenzie and TE Dawson Knox. McKenzie has played just 12 snaps so far throughout the playoffs but is due for a push pass or two especially against a blitz heavy team like the Chiefs. As for Dawson Knox his size and athleticism may be too much for the Chiefs LBs to handle which would then require Daniel Sorensen to come down into coverage. This would keep Sorensen out of the box and free up more underneath routes for the Bills. As with every week it comes down to individual matchups and whoever wins theirs will win this one. P.S. Don’t forget about John “Smoke” Brown.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Offense vs. Chiefs’ Rushing Defense
While the Passing Game for the Bills has evolved into one of the best in the NFL the running game has regressed to the bottom tier of the league. This ineptitude has reached new depths with the Bills’ Running Backs combining for just 71 rushing yards (Josh Allen has 57) over the first two games of the playoffs. For context, all Non-Bills’ Playoff games have featured at least one player with 75+ rushing yards. Bills Mafia has been aware of these struggles since early in the season and exorcised their demons by lighting into OC Brian Daboll after he “excessively” ran the ball against the Colts. The following week, against the Ravens, Daboll flipped the script handing the ball off just 1 time in the first half and 9 times total to RBs who combined for a Y/A of just 3.2. It is abundantly clear to not just the Buffalo Bills but every other team in the NFL that this Bills’ team is a pass first team however, some semblance of balance will be needed if they are to reach the full potential necessary to chase down the Lombardi trophy.
Dependent on the gameplan which the Chiefs employ, running the ball could be an important part of the Bills’ offense on Sunday night. If the Chiefs do force the issue the Bills will be contending with the 19th ranked team in Y/A that just gave up over 5.0 Y/A against the Browns in the Divisional round. Of course that’s a Browns’ team that has both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt who were running behind one of the best run blocking OLs (#6 Adjusted Line Yards) in the NFL however, the Browns success against the Chiefs does not necessitate similar results for the Bills’ Devin Singletary and T.J. Yeldon who are running behind an inferior run blocking OL (#15 Adjusted Line Yards). Making it even more unlikely that the Bills could find success with a similar style of play is that most of the Browns’ success came when running the ball between the tackles. On 19 RB carries the Browns had 7 that went for 5+ yards 5 of which came when attacking this area. This relied heavily on the Browns interior line controlling the opposing DTs allowing the runners to get to the second level.
There is a further problem with this plan of attack though and he goes by the name of Chirs Jones. The massive 5-year vet drafted in the 2nd round out of Mississippi St. is a rare talent in the NFL, a game wrecker that can alter the outcome of any week. When talking about the best DTs in the NFL you will often hear names like Aaron Donald, Fletcher Cox, and Cameron Heyward but outside of Donald, there may be no one better at the position than Chris Jones. For his massive frame, 6’6” 310lb, Jones possesses incredible quickness that provides him with a tool bag of moves that range from outright bull rushes to tight swim moves. Jones is a pass rush expert that often finds his way into the lap of opposing QBs but his consistency in disrupting the run is what makes him one of the best all-around defenders in football. A disruptive bowling ball next to him comes in the form of NT Derrick Nnadi who I would doubt exceeds 50% of the defensive snaps this week with the Chiefs likely electing to go lighter in an effort to further disrupt the Bills’ passing attack. This means you should expect to see significantly more of the Chiefs primary 3-man DE rotation in Tershawn Wharton, Frank Clark, and Tanoh Kpassagnon. Like their comrades in the secondary each of these 3 players can play multiple positions provided by their quickness to set the edge and the size and strength to stuff the middle making them nightmare matchups for contending offensive linemen.
This all leads to the consensus that whether it be Devin Singletary, T.J. Yeldon, Antonio Williams, Devonta Freeman, or even Reggie Gilliam the Bills will struggle to move the ball on the ground consistently, but they do have one X-Factor. That man is their rumbling bumbling 6’5” 240lb buffalo of a man, quarterback Josh Allen. In the last game against Kansas City Allen was able to account for 42 rushing yards on 8 carries often finding a corner to run to and beating the Chiefs LBs to the spot. The Chiefs have 3 good ones in Anthony Hitchens, Damien Wilson, and Ben Niemann who are all talented football players with large frames that allow them to handle extra blockers but that comes with a limitation to speed and quickness over the middle. The Bills will need to occasionally find success on the ground if they want to win the Time of Possession battle and all signs point to any success in the matter only available via one avenue, the legs of #17.
EDGE: Chiefs 👏 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Passing Defense vs. Chiefs’ Passing Offense
The Buffalo Bills play one of the most difficult defensive schemes to master in all of football, the Palms Defense. At a very high level this Zone scheme is built on the coverage units’ ability to communicate and trade off players as they get deeper into their routes. Its effectiveness begins with its pre-snap deceit which some Quarterbacks will find difficult to identify but culminates post-snap where it is nearly impossible to determine where the reads and tradeoffs will occur. It is the defensive equivalent of the Zone-Read offense and flips the advantage to favor the defense. This scheme has been utilized since Sean McDermott became the head coach of the Bills in 2017 and has resulted in them finishing no lower in Passer Rating (PR) against than 6th since that point in time. Even the 2020 Buffalo Bills would finish the season 5th overall with a PR against of 86.9 which early in the season seemed like an impossible feat.
Up until the Chiefs’ game the Bills were being torched through the air with a PR against of 103.6. If that were to have continued for the entire 2020 campaign the Bills would have finished 29th in the NFL in this statistic. This reached its crescendo against the Chiefs where despite bailing out to stop the pass, and then getting gashed on the ground, the Bills still managed to give up a PR of 128.4. There was clearly something wrong with a passing defense that by all measures had regressed as much or more so than the Bills’ QB had progressed, so I sought out to determine what the issue was. After a quick re-watch of the Chiefs’ game I came to find that the Palms defense was breaking down repeatedly with no clearer example than Travis Kelce’s second touchdown reception. I won’t rehash the entire analysis (If interested read the beginning of Bills’ Passing Defense here) but the tradeoffs necessitated by Palms were failing at nearly every turn. Something happened after the Chiefs game though, and the Bills began to find a rhythm. In fact, they found such a rhythm that through the remainder of the season they would hold opposing teams to a PR of just 72.6 and have continued that dominance in the playoffs allowing one of just 78.9. This Bills’ team that spent the early part of the 2020 season struggling to stop inferior opponents from moving the ball through the air and is now the best remaining team at stopping it which could come in handy with the remaining playoff QBs being Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and…
Patrick Mahomes. For the sake of this post I’m ignoring the “Will He, Won’t He” on whether or not he will play because I am fairly confident “He Will”. So, what is left to be said about Patrick Mahomes? Over the first few seasons of his career he owns just about every record a QB can own as well as an MVP award, a Lombardi Trophy, and a Super Bowl MVP. My definition of a “Gunslinger” Mahomes is willing to attempt any throw on the football field and can make any of those throws. As much as, if not more so than, Josh Allen, Mahomes’ excels when he breaks the pocket and the play falls apart leaving him to ad-lib with a slew of weapons and a well-coached offense that is able to take advantage of recovering defenders. Always the best player on the field, when Mahomes is on there is almost no stopping him and frankly, when he is off it’s still nearly impossible. The recipe for beating him is simply stated, and difficult to execute, the 1 or 2 throws a game where he misses his target, must be converted into turnovers.
This is in no way meant as a slight to Mahomes however, he has the perfect players around him that allow him to execute his game as he desires. On the one hand is Travis Kelce who may go down in history as the greatest TE to ever play the position and is, in my opinion, the best receiving threat to ever do it. In 2020 Kelce played just 15 games but broke the record for receiving yards by a TE with 1416 while raking in 105 catches and 11 TDs. The Bills attempt to limit him by alternating their LBs and Safeties onto him which results in the Bills spending more time in Big Nickel pushing players like Siran Neal onto the field more often. Next up is the man known as “Cheetah”, Tyreek Hill. Hill is one of the more disrespected on field talents in the NFL and statistically is right there with players like Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, and DeAndre Hopkins. Better yet, Hill fits Mahomes in the same way Diggs fits Allen except as more of a home run threat that is going to consistently test Micah Hyde’s prowess as one of the best prevent safeties in the NFL. Outside of Hill and Kelce there are a ton of other weapons for this passing game to utilize. The speedy Mecole Hardman, the “Real Deal” Demarcus Robinson, and the Bills’ previous #4 overall pick Sammy Watkins. Pick your poison against this team but regardless the Bills’ CBs and especially their Safeties will have their hands full Sunday night.
EDGE: Chiefs 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Defense vs. Chiefs’ Rushing Offense
The Bills’ rushing defense is coming off a game in which they may not have shut down the Ravens’ vaunted rushing attack, but they surely contained it. This was a Ravens’ team that led the NFL in Rushing Y/G at 191.2 and Y/A at 5.5 and managed just 150 yards at 4.7 Y/A against the Bills. How was Buffalo able to do this? Defensive Coordinator Leslie Frazier challenged the Ravens to beat them through the air by running 3 LB sets on 41% of snaps and bringing down one of Jordan Poyer or Micah Hyde to stack the box with 7 or 8 players on nearly every play. This, often, left the Bills’ DBs matched up in a rare version of single coverage which the Bills won on a consistent basis. An eye-opening game for the Bills and one that they won because of scheme, a scheme they can’t afford to run against the Chiefs.
The Chiefs are more than competent of moving the ball on the ground, when at full health. Rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire (CEH) burst onto the scene early in 2020 and was on pace to finish with just around 1000 rushing yards before suffering a substantial high-ankle sprain against the Saints on December 20th. Sidelined now for just over 1 month CEH is bordering on healthy enough to play with the average recovery time between 4-6 weeks. If CEH cannot suit up the likely replacement for him is not Le’Veon Bell (Who is now dealing with a knee injury) but instead 3rd year back Darrel Williams. In the Chiefs’ 1st playoff game against the Browns Williams would finish with 13 carries to Bells’ 2. Primarily a deep depth player Williams is getting more work now than he has at any other point in his professional career. Dynamic enough a player in his Senior season at LSU, with 1151 yards and 9 TDs on 168 touches, the Chiefs took a flyer on him picking him up as an undrafted rookie in 2018. A 1-cut back that finishes downhill Williams who is listed at 5’11” 224lb looks much smaller but plays like a bruiser. As for the previously mentioned Le’Veon Bell, he has exceeded 35% of offensive snaps just once since joining the Chiefs and saw a season low of 16% in the first round of the playoffs. I postured it when it happened but with the Bills in the mix for Bell earlier in the season is it possible the Chiefs were keeping him away from a team they could see in the AFC Championship game? Something to think about.
In front of whoever is running the ball is an offensive line, that like the Bills, looks a little different from the last time these two teams faced off. At Center the Chiefs elected to start veteran Daniel Kilgore over presumptive starter Austin Reiter. Reiter would eventually regain his starting role in Week 9 and will get the start against the Bills on Sunday. At RT Mitchell Schwartz started the game against Buffalo but after suffering a back injury early in that game has now been replaced by ex-Bucs, Chargers, Panthers, Rams, Vikings, and Giants tackle Mike Remmers. The other 3 positions are held by men that Bills saw in their last matchup. Andre Wylie (RG), an undrafted free agent from 2018, and Nick Allegretti (LG), a 7th round pick in 2019, man the guard positions where they combine to be roughly 630 pounds and are capable of pushing the DTs in front of them back into opposing LBs. The OL is topped off by its headliner, Left Tackle, Eric Fisher who earned his second Pro Bowl nod this season and has been one of the more consistent linemen in the NFL over his 8-year career which started with him being the #1 overall pick in 2013. Fisher has incredibly quick feet and long arms which will provide him an advantage over whichever pass rusher lines up over him.
I would not be surprised in the least if the Bills employ the same defensive scheme they did against the Chiefs in their first matchup during the AFC Championship game. Forcing the Chiefs to run the ball at a defense which now includes the most underrated player in all the NFL, Matt Milano, should play right into Buffalo’s hands. If the Chiefs take the bait and elect to go this route it should surprise everyone if they exceed their 221 rushing yards from the previous matchup. The Bills’ Front 7 has vastly improved since that matchup and should see new faces, including Harrison Phillips, making plays up front. Expect a light lineup at times during the game meaning more Ed Oliver and Quinton Jefferson as the Bills’ attempt to pressure Mahomes and force the Chiefs to run up the middle. This puts heavy reliance on the Bills’ LBs to clean up the scraps which via dramatic improvement, Tremaine Edmunds looks more capable of now than at any other point in the season. One player that goes un-talked about way more than he should is Safety Jordan Poyer. A massive Pro Bowl snub, Poyer is playing with a chip on his shoulder and under the bright lights with a chance to prove why he is not just one of the best in the AFC but the entire NFL, expect a big game from him and keep your eyes peeled for his use of the “Peanut Punch”.
EDGE: Chiefs 👏 👏
Bills’ Special Teams vs. Chiefs’ Special Teams
Coming into the playoffs the Buffalo Bills were widely considered to have one of the best ST units in the entire NFL, which has been tested through 2 weeks. In the Wildcard round the Buffalo Bills played the Indianapolis Colts whose Special Teams consisted of above average return groups, excellent coverage units, a similar kicker to the Bills, and one of the more efficient punters in the NFL. The Bills may have lost the field position battle here but when calling upon their punter and kicker they answered the bell every time while a Colts’ missed kick ultimately decided the game. Against the Ravens the Bills would play one of, if not, the greatest kickers of all time in Justin Tucker, a punter that had barely given up any return yards, and solid return and coverage teams. As the game ended the Bills and Ravens’ Punters paced each other, as did the Bills rookie Kicker to Justin Tucker, while Andre Roberts was the only return man able to pick up yards in the return game (34 in total). Were these decisive victories for the Bills against opposing Special Teams? No. But when going against the best and at a minimum finishing neck and neck with them the Bills’ Special Teams have clearly announced themselves as a weapon in the playoffs.
As we roll on in the playoffs I would not be surprised if, though I would advise against, this is the last time we see Andre Roberts in a Buffalo Bills’ uniform. Still, the 2020 2nd Team All-Pro is a weapon for Buffalo and while he still is yet to score a TD for the Bills don’t be surprised if he has a splash play or two left in him. Heck, there is even a chance he could be the deciding factor between the Chiefs and Bills. At Punter is Corey Bojorquez who has had a Renaissance of a season and is undoubtedly in the upper echelon of Punters in the NFL. Last is Bills’ Kicker Tyler Bass who against the Ravens missed his first FG kick(s) since his 61-yard miss against Seattle back in early November. Bass quietly put together a rookie season for the ages and looks to be on the trajectory to emerge as one of the better kickers in the NFL.
For the Chiefs they trot out 2019 Pro Bowl return man Mecole Hardman who is one of the scarier return men in the NFL. In 2020 his stats have dropped off drastically as he has fallen to 7.0 Y/PR (9.3 in 2019) and 20.4 Y/KR (26.1 in 2020). Still Hardman did bring a punt back for a TD this season and has 4.33 40yd speed making him a dangerous return man to contend with on Sunday. This means for the 3rd straight game Bills’ fans can expect Buffalo to bypass their short kick strategy and kick the ball out of the back of the endzone. At Punter is Tommy Townsend the rookie out of Florida who had a solid campaign as a Punter in his first season. Townsend would finish the season with a Punt Avg of 45.0 and a Net Punt Avg of 40.4 right around the middle of the NFL in both categories. At kicker is Harrison Butker who at times is in contention for best kicker in the NFL and at others misses kicks that even Sam Ficken could hit. On the regular season Butker went 25 of 27 on Field Goals with misses from 42 and 48 but just 48 of 54 (88.9%) from XP. In his first playoff game against the Browns Butker would go on to miss 1 of 2 FGs (33yd) and 1 XP. This is without a doubt something to monitor during the AFC Championship.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏
Why We Will Lose
All season long these posts have been filled with a recurring statement, “The Buffalo Bills are the more talented football team”. Sure, I could argue that to be true this week, but I could just as easily argue that the Chiefs are more talented. It all starts on offense where a large amount of the credit is owed to…Andy Reid? Yes, Andy Reid the coach who had turned Donovan McNabb into a household name, Michael Vick into an MVP contender, and Alex Smith into a perennial winner as a starting QB has now been handed the keys to a QB who may just be better than all of them combined. Reid will find the weak points in the Bills’ defense and he will attack them over and over until the Chiefs put up enough points to win the game. Kelce is a mismatch, Hill is a zone breaker, they will run the ball effectively, and Mahomes will make big play after big play.
And then there’s their unheralded defense that has quietly been improving as the season went on and at points was the key to them winning football games. They have the two dynamos in Tyrann Mathieu and Chris Jones who have been described in detail above while the other 9 players on the field with them complement each other well. The Chiefs will send complex blitzes at Allen, stuff the run, blow up the Bills’ receivers and force multiple turnovers turning what should be a close game into a blowout. All those statements are feasible outcomes of this game and if even a portion of them were to occur expect the Chiefs to head to their second straight Super Bowl.
Why We Will Win
This is not the same Bills’ team that the Chiefs played on October 19th. This isn’t the same Bills’ team that people have known for the past quarter century. Instead this is a Bills’ team that has showed an affinity for showing up when the whole world is watching. Led by one of the toughest coaches in the NFL the Bills will arrive in Kansas City prepared and their OC, Brian Daboll, will have a gameplan ready to attack a Chiefs’ defense which does not match up well with the Bills’ offense. Yes, they have a competent secondary but if Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters were unable to shutdown Stefon Diggs who on the Chiefs will be able to? Factor that in with the other weapons the Bills have in the passing game and a Quarterback that will surely exceed what he did the last time these two teams met, and the Bills are on the precipice of a 30+ point outing.
Is this the same defense that the Chiefs saw in the early part of the 2020 season? No. Back then the Bills’ Palms defense was struggling, and they were without the player that makes their defense hum, OLB Matt Milano. Still, the defense came inches away from turning the tide of the game in October when Justin Zimmer tackled CEH for a 4-yard loss and what looked to be a fumble but was later overturned. By mere inches the Chiefs avoided giving the ball to the Bills on the 35-yard line up 6 with 5:23 left to play. But close only counts in horseshoes in hand grenades and on Sunday night this Bills’ defense isn’t looking for close enough, they are looking to dominate. Turnovers are the key for the Bills and if Buffalo can limit them on their side and force 2+ by KC then the Buffalo Bills who are STARVING to get to a Super Bowl will punch their ticket to Tampa Bay.
Prediction: Bills 31 – Chiefs 28
Coming into writing this post I was confident I was going to choose the Chiefs to win this game. They already beat the Bills this season, the game is in Kansas City, and the Chiefs are experienced in the AFC Championship. Then I started looking at the matchups and I noticed that most of the downfalls of their previous game resembled more aberrations than dominations. Don’t get me wrong the Chiefs could easily win this game but something just feels right about picking Buffalo this week. I expect this game to go down as one of those instant classics we talk about years from now and possibly start a new rivalry in the NFL. At the end of the day I think there will be one big play that decides this game. It could be a Honey Badger strip sack, could be a tip drill between Hyde and Poyer, could be a last second scramble by Patty Mahomes, or could be a rocket thrown by Josh Allen hitting Diggs deep. But I’ll take the Bills making that play. So, Mount Up Mafia, it’s almost game time.

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[OC] Best transfer targets in Football Manager 2021

The rise and fall of Earl Thomas: A Hall of Fame career interrupted - ESPN+ Exclusive

Earl Thomas wanted to show an old friend how far he had come.
It was 2013, and a then-24-year-old Thomas patrolled the Seattle Seahawks' Legion of Boom secondary. The franchise was just weeks from its first Super Bowl championship, and Thomas had flown his high school coach, Texas state Hall of Famer Dan Hooks, and his wife to see the Seahawks' regular-season finale against the St. Louis Rams.
After the Seahawks breezed past the Rams, Hooks found himself at Thomas' house for dinner, surrounded by luxury. He overlooked lake waters as Nina Thomas, Earl's future wife, prepared a tender steak. After dinner, Thomas walked Hooks to his garage to check out the Lamborghini Murcielago. Hooks can't remember if the car was blue or white, but he definitely remembers the scissor doors and hand-stitched leather seats, a rare glimpse into a player he always considered a bit of an introvert.
Thomas stressed he never drove it through rain or mud.
Seven years later, Hooks wonders how Thomas -- a once-proud playmaker now unemployed after a rocky season with the Baltimore Ravens and well-publicized problems off the field -- is navigating those same conditions in his life.
"I was really surprised when he got off track like that," said Hooks, who coached Thomas at Orange-Stark High School. "As time went on, the image he represented became a little different. I don't know what happened. But he's a great kid and I wish him success."
After nearly $90 million in career earnings, seven Pro Bowls and three All-Pro selections, Thomas has played deep safety on a likely route to the Hall of Fame. But a series of bizarre events on and off the field late in his career have raised questions about a legacy coming apart at the seams, including:
He ended his Seattle career by flashing a middle finger at Pete Carroll on Sept. 30, 2018, after a leg injury and an acrimonious contract dispute.
He ended his Baltimore career with a punch, with teammates fed up with his act well before he fought safety Chuck Clark during a training camp practice on Aug. 21, 2020. Two days later, the Ravens cut him for conduct detrimental to the team.
In between, a well-publicized issue with his wife, Nina -- who was arrested April 13, 2020, for allegedly pointing a gun at Thomas over cheating suspicions, according to court records -- took the focus off football.
Now, Thomas is 31 and hopeful for one last chance to anchor a secondary. All season, the free agent has worked out five to six days per week with Jeremy Hills, a former University of Texas teammate who trains many NFL athletes out of Austin.
"He feels like he has so much more to prove," Hills said. "He'll show up ready whenever he gets the call."
Blake Gideon, a former University of Texas safety who shared the defensive backfield with Thomas, backs up that claim, saying Thomas conveyed in recent text messages that he "understands the position he's in and is eager" to correct it with another chance.
Many former teammates and coaches said the news stories about Thomas, who didn't respond to multiple attempts by ESPN to reach him, don't match the person they know: a quiet but loyal individual who doesn't trust others easily but cares deeply once walls are broken, with a rare football focus that some mistake for iciness.
That last part complicated Thomas' status in multiple locker rooms. His relentless pursuit of greatness could create a gulf that several former teammates didn't want to discuss on the record out of respect for Thomas' career.
As one longtime Seahawk put it, Thomas was "a lot like Kobe" in his competitive drive. Kobe Bryant evolved and was beloved when he retired in 2016. Will Thomas get his goodbye, or has the game said it for him?
Faith and family in Orange, Texas Just about everything a young Thomas did felt ordained.
His interest in music became not just a hobby, but a vessel for an entire church body, playing the drums and organ in the Sunday service band in Orange, Texas.
A quiet boy with a matching tie and vest helped get the congregation at Sixth Street Community Church off their seats. Sixth Street, located in Orange's east side -- which the church's Facebook page calls "devil's territory" because of crime and drugs in the area -- spread joy from a brown-brick building. Thomas' grandfather, Earl V. Thomas Sr., was the founding pastor, and uncle Anthony D. Thomas has taken over.
Raymond Richard, Thomas' teammate at Orange-Stark, said the boys were in church three nights per week, plus weekends. Services were "filled with the Holy Ghost -- shouting and spirits moving," he said, and though Thomas wasn't the animated type, he took pride in helping others celebrate God through music.
"Every instrument, he could play. He was just gifted like that," Richard said. "I think he just learned how to play by being around it."
Growing up in Orange -- nicknamed "Fruit City," sitting on the border of Texas and Louisiana with a population of about 11,000 -- Thomas cut grass with his dad on weekends. Locals knew Thomas as Debbie Thomas' "miracle baby," because doctors told her, a cancer survivor, she couldn't have kids. Instead, "God blessed her with a millionaire," Richard said.
Thomas became arguably Orange's best player since former Dallas Cowboy All-Pro cornerback Kevin Smith in the '80s. Thomas was a hybrid cornerback-running back who hated to come off the field. No tests, on the field or standardized, would stop his ascension.
High school teammate Depauldrick Garrett recalls Thomas' struggling with his SAT scores to qualify for the University of Texas. Before his last attempt at qualifying, Thomas told him on site, "If I pass this score, 'I'm going to the league.'"
"His focus level was just different," Garrett said. "He wanted to make a name for Orange, and he learned the value of hard work from his family."
Early signs of brilliance as a Longhorn In 2008, Gideon earned Texas' starting-safety role alongside Thomas, who for weeks hadn't said more than two words to him. So Gideon approached Thomas after a practice and asked if he had a problem.
"He said, 'Man, to be honest, where I come from, you're a white boy with a buzz cut, so I fill in the blank on what you think about me,'" Gideon recalled Thomas saying. "I told him, 'Hey, bro, that's not me. I grew up in a different part of the state, but I see how you play and how you work hard and I love you for that. I promise you, I want to play next to you and help you get where you want to be.
"From that point, we really trusted one another."
Thomas' hometown is rich in football tradition but familiar with racial tension, which ESPN highlighted in a 2017 feature on Thomas' roots. A 1993 Texas Monthly story highlighted the segregation problems in nearby Vidor. In 2016, a Bridge City High School official issued a public apology after two of its football players posted a meme of a West Orange-Stark player who was Black and a message including the N-word.
Richard believes racism isn't discernibly worse in Orange; it's everywhere.
"You've got a group that's always trying to keep things turned up in every town," said Cornel Thompson, a longtime football coach and West Orange-Stark's athletic director. "In Orange here, the thing that pulls everything together is football."
And the field was never a problem for Thomas, who proved undeniable from the moment he stepped onto the UT campus.
He wasn't afraid to let people know, either. Lamarr Houston, a UT teammate and eight-year NFL veteran with the then-Oakland Raiders and Chicago Bears, remembers Thomas, as a redshirt freshman, declaring in the locker room that he would start the following year.
Houston brushed him off with a, "Yeah, yeah, we'll see."
"We kind of got into it -- he was really serious," Houston said. "He was letting everybody know."
Colt McCoy -- the Texas QB in 2008 -- was struck by how a shy redshirt freshman would play an organ at a local church on Sundays, sometimes missing an involuntary workout as a result, then become a dominant force during nighttime 7-on-7 workouts in the summer. Thomas begged McCoy, who had the keys to the field gates, to continue one-on-one sessions with him covering McCoy's receivers, over and over, until midnight.
"He was going to be the best and nothing was going to get in his way," said McCoy, an 11-year NFL veteran now with the New York Giants.
Thomas backed up that confidence with raw talent, with some teammates calling him "Earl the Squirrel" because of elite quickness that led to 10 interceptions in two seasons.
Will Muschamp, Texas' defensive coordinator from 2008 to 2010, remembers doing double-takes watching practice film because of the extra reps Thomas took, the ground he constantly covered.
Muschamp was cleaning his house during the early months of the pandemic when his youngest son, Whit, came across a picture he drew years back of his favorite Longhorn, Thomas. Muschamp snapped a picture and texted it to Thomas, who replied: "Coach, that's awesome."
"As productive a football player I've ever been around," said Muschamp, a head coach at Florida and South Carolina over the past decade.
Seattle was a perfect fit -- until suddenly it wasn't Man, he had a different burst.
That was the prevailing theme from Seattle coaches after the first practices with Thomas, a first-round pick in 2010. Coaches measured safety speed by how one tracked the "red lines" -- numbers to numbers -- and no one owned the red lines like Thomas did.
New coach Pete Carroll needed a catalyst.
"We started constructing a defense around a middle-field safety, and that's what he was," said Rocky Seto, a longtime Seattle defensive assistant who left the profession a few years ago for Christian ministry. "He had a knack for getting the ball, and his range was phenomenal."
Seattle's personnel staff followed the Thomas pick with a pair of fifth-round selections -- hard-hitting safety Kam Chancellor (2010) and lanky corner Richard Sherman (2011) -- for a defensive foundation to fuel championship runs
Thomas was different in every way, eschewing the role of vocal leader for a get-like-me mentality that some teammates couldn't reach. One Seattle coach recalled Thomas chiding teammates for doing an extra film session because he assumed everyone already did that like him.
The work ethic reached maniacal levels. Multiple people interviewed for this story remember Thomas leaving his daughter's birthday party early to go watch film in another room. Former Seahawks corner DeShawn Shead was there for that moment. He was also there when Thomas angrily confronted defensive linemen for not carrying out assignments with intensity during a walk-through.
Thomas would balance contentious moments with invites for teammates to watch "Thursday Night Football" and play video games at his house.
"We know each other's family -- wives, kids, and on the field, we were there for each other," Shead said of Seattle's secondary.
Thomas' hero was Ed Reed, and Thomas wanted to "surpass Reed and beat him by a mile" in career accomplishments, said Kris Richard, Seattle's former defensive backs coach and defensive coordinator.
Thomas hasn't quite matched Reed's 64 interceptions, but Thomas' 30 is tops among safeties this past decade, with Sherman leading the way among active players, with 35. Chancellor was a generational hitter, and Sherman could erase the top receiver, but Thomas' versatility scared opposing coaches. His freelance moves were calculated, almost always based on film tips. Richard recalls a moment when a young Thomas sniffed out a toss play for Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles, put his foot in the ground and "leveled him out of bounds."
Richard had to manage a position room with three greats, which he admits meant "sparks would fly" with emotion on occasion.
One team source said Thomas had multiple heated confrontations with coaches, though Richard said he doesn't recall that, only a player of few words but much action.
"He wanted to be the greatest safety to ever play," Richard said. "For my entirety coaching him, he was always the glaring example of what to do and how to practice, the epitome of excellence."
That football immersion made him unapproachable at times. If someone isn't helping Thomas connect on the field, a team source said, then "he's an island."
But Seattle was the ideal place for a "keeps to himself" guy such as Thomas, Seto said. Seattle is unapologetically messy when it comes to players; coaches get to know them as people, business be damned, and if that muddles contract negotiations, at least players can't say the team doesn't care. Carroll is skilled at coalescing an amalgam of personalities and embracing differences. Seto had multiple talks with Thomas about the Bible and his relationship with Jesus Christ.
"He came in as a 19-year-old guy, almost out of high school, and we saw him in that way, nurtured him," Seto said. "If there were any quirks, we learned to appreciate that part of him. We all kind of came up together."
By 2018, Thomas was 29 and found himself on that island without two trusted anchors. Chancellor retired because of neck injuries, and Sherman was released after tearing his Achilles tendon. Both played roles in corralling Thomas when he appeared distant or indifferent.
Without them, Thomas appeared increasingly irritated to be in Seattle. Public demands for an extension or a trade before the 2018 season were unsuccessful, and as trainers carted Thomas off the field in Arizona in Week 4 -- with his lower left leg fractured, and his middle finger pointed to the Glendale sky -- one Seahawks source described the moment as "numbing," a finality to a relationship that felt over much earlier. People from Orange considered the gesture uncharacteristic of the church-organ-playing football player they knew.
Sherman declined to comment for this story through the 49ers, adding that he would talk only if Thomas talks; efforts to reach Chancellor were unsuccessful. The Seahawks did not make Carroll and general manager John Schneider available for this story.
"They were pillars who knew they could lean on each other," said Richard of Thomas and the Legion of Boom. "When you remove those pillars from his life, that affects you."
From Orange, Hooks sensed Thomas' desire to return home fueled unhappiness in Seattle.
"He wanted to go to Dallas, and when that didn't happen, maybe that changed things for him," Hooks said.
Why it didn't work with the Ravens The Baltimore Ravens are among the league's best at finding bargain contracts and developing draft picks into tough-minded players, which only fueled curiosity when then-new general manager Eric DeCosta gave Thomas a four-year, $55 million contract with $32 million in guarantees in March 2019.
Thomas, two months from age 30 at the time, was believed to have a one-year deal on the table from Kansas City, but his market wasn't exactly booming. The Ravens had moved on from Eric Weddle and, without a viable replacement in the system, figured Thomas' pedigree and range could strengthen the secondary against the Odell Beckhams of the AFC North.
The signing felt rushed -- and proved unsettling nearly as fast.
Within the first month of game action, Thomas initiated a heated argument with Brandon Williams over the defensive tackle's availability against the Cleveland Browns. Thomas' unreliability became a broader issue, as ESPN's Jamison Hensley reported, once he didn't show up for meetings following the bye after a Week 7 matchup with the Seahawks.
According to a report in The Athletic, Thomas took a private jet to Las Vegas straight from the game in Seattle instead of returning to Baltimore with the Ravens. Thomas was fined repeatedly for his indifference to game prep.
"It's one of the all-time mysteries why he didn't work in here, because it seemed on paper like he'd be the perfect Raven," said a team source. "This is a good locker room, but it didn't fit from the beginning."
Peak Thomas no longer showed on the game film from the 2019 season, but he still produced 47 tackles, two sacks, a forced fumble and two interceptions.
The team's handling of the fight with Clark in 2020 showed just how many strikes Thomas had used up. Thomas was gone within two days of punching Clark during a Friday training camp practice over a blown coverage, with the team essentially paying out $22 million for one season of work.
Coach John Harbaugh consulted prominent Ravens, who believed it was time to cut ties. After Thomas' release, the team declined to provide specifics publicly and privately, eager to move on despite owing him $10 million in guarantees in 2021, which is currently being sorted out by an NFLPA grievance.
Without making excuses for Thomas, several former Seahawks acknowledge that leaving Seattle's locker room is an adjustment for veterans. Several former and current Seahawks brought this up when discussing Thomas' problems. It's not that players can't be successful elsewhere -- Sherman became an All-Pro with San Francisco -- it's that they can take the culture for granted.
Outside linebacker Bruce Irvin has been vocal about this. He left Seattle in 2016 free agency and, after 30 sacks in five seasons elsewhere, he returned to the Seahawks because he missed the nuances -- how the team traveled, practiced and took care of older players.
"Seattle has energy, a positive environment, and they tailor a lot of their defense and offense to the players," Shead said. "It can be very different compared to the rest of the league. For some, when you got to other teams, it just gets to them."
Thomas' football career started to spiral as his personal life suffered in the public eye.
The Ravens were shocked by the April 13 incident in Austin, which resulted in Nina Thomas' arrest for first-degree felony burglary of a residence with intent to commit aggravated assault with a deadly weapon.
The details alleged in Travis County magistrate court records were jarring:
After finding Earl Thomas and his brother, Seth, in separate bedrooms of a rental home with separate women, Nina placed Earl's 9mm Beretta less than a foot away from her husband's head, with the safety disengaged and her finger on the trigger, all of which an officer viewed on cellphone video footage. Nina, accompanied by two women to help confront Thomas, told police she intended to scare Thomas but was unaware of a round in the chamber. Earl, who was not arrested, tussled for the gun, but police showed up at 3:41 a.m. with Nina allegedly chasing Earl with a knife. Thomas posted a since-deleted video urging people to pray instead of gossip, as "stuff like this happens."
Jonathan Goins, Nina's lawyer, told ESPN that Nina and Earl -- high school sweethearts who married in 2016 and have three children -- are reconciling.
"They are working on their marriage and doing what they have to do to make sure their three children are growing up in the best environment possible," Goins said.
Goins said he is expecting a dismissal of the case, which is currently being handled by the district attorney's office. He is working closely with Carl A. Moore, Earl Thomas' attorney, and Thomas has fully cooperated in the process.
Will Thomas get another chance? As a concerned friend, Gideon has sent encouraging texts to Thomas in recent months. He figured Thomas felt like the world was coming down on him, so he simply let him know he loved him. They had pleasant exchanges that Gideon would prefer to keep private.
"A lot of people were surprised with the issues that came to light because that was never him," Gideon said. "I don't see that as not having a great relationship with teammates in the locker room. The stuff back in Austin with his brother, that wasn't him."
According to Hills, his former teammate and trainer, Thomas has immersed himself in routine, working on his personal life and football craft without any guarantees of his career resuming.
Most days, Thomas wakes up early, jogs a mile to get loose, goes through a traditional weightlifting session (he needs to squat with the barbell across the back -- no body-weight sessions here), then it's on to conditioning and two-man offensive work, Hills said.
Hills classifies Thomas as being in "damn good shape," with speed of the NFL game the only thing they can't truly replicate in workouts. But when Hills can't find Thomas, he usually knows why.
"For the first time in a while, he has more time to be a dad," Hills said. "If he's not with me, he's probably in a bouncy house somewhere."
Family photos comprise much of Thomas' social media fare.
Thomas also has several posts that seem to promote the grand opening of Area 29 in Houston, which, according to the company's Instagram page, is the "hottest new international strip club featuring #1 dancers." Twenty-nine is Thomas' famous jersey number. ESPN left a message for a club official for comment on Thomas' involvement.
The Houston Texans appeared ready to sign Thomas in late September but backed away over concerns from the locker room, according to reporting by CBS Sports.
The Dallas Cowboys desperately needed secondary help yet didn't aggressively pursue Thomas. League sources said they believe the Cowboys once entertained signing Thomas for the league minimum, but those discussions never went very far.
Football can be cruel to aging veterans hoping to gracefully bow out. For every John Elway or Peyton Manning, there are dozens forced into retirement due to declining play.
But that's tough for Thomas, McCoy said, because of what he still can give.
"It's hard for anybody when someone tells you you can't play anymore -- it's even harder if you think you still can," McCoy said. "Hard thing to move on from. With Earl, I don't think that's what's going on. He can still play."
Richard also believes Thomas has "something left in the tank," because instincts and preparation will guide him.
Either way, a legacy awaits him in Orange, where for years he conducted a massive youth football camp. Providing a free camp to 1,000-plus kids was liberating for Thomas, who had to shake his hesitancy to speak publicly as a front-facing figure.
Thomas brought NFL peers to town and treated Orange "like Robin Hood" when it came to generosity for kids and family friends, said Derrick Scott, a former Texas strength coach who helps run the camp, which COVID-19 derailed in 2020.
"I see all this as Earl Thomas growing into the man he's going to be. I really believe he'll prevail," Scott said. "I believe his heart is in the right place. Things happen in life. I've seen his resiliency."
If Thomas doesn't get another NFL down, he has disciples to carry on his tradition -- and fiercely protect his legacy.
Any time Tennessee Titans safety Kenny Vaccaro breaks on a pass, he hopes his technique and angle to the ball would make Thomas proud.
The former UT teammate and friend can't be told any differently: Thomas revolutionized the free safety position because of his sideline-to-sideline range and anticipation.
That's why Thomas' current predicament deeply hurts him.
"Hall of Fame players like him should be able to go out on their own terms," Vaccaro said.

Juicy's First Official 2021 NFL Mock Draft (3 Rounds). Trades At The Top. Pick By Pick Analysis Continued In Comments.

Trades:
Broncos trade 2021 RD1#12, 2021 RD4 #105 and 2022 RD1 for Cowboys 2021 RD1#4
Panthers trade 2021 RD1#7 and 2021 RD4 #102 and 2022 RD4 for Chargers 2021 RD1#5
Jaguars Trade 2021 Rd1#25 and 2021 RD3#66 for Raiders 2021 RD1#25
The 49ers trade 2021 RD2 #47, 2022 4th and Jimmy Garapolo for Patriots 2021 RD2 #46 and 2022 RD6
Steelers Trade 2021 RD2#64, 2021 RD4#128 and 2021 RD7#239 for Seahawks 2021 RD2#58
Football Team trades 2021 RD3 #75 and 2021 RD4 #106 for Seahawks 2021 RD2 #64
Seahawks Trade 2021 RD4 #122 and 2022 RD4 Via Jets for Packers 2021 RD3 #93
Steelers trade 2021 Rd3 #96 and Conditional 2022 Pick (2nd or 3rd) For Jets QB Sam Darnold
1. *Jets*- Trevor Lawrence-QB-Clemson
Sometimes you just don’t need to overthink it. Darnold’s failure in the Garden State wasn’t his own fault but you don’t pass on free, generational QBs like Lawrence. While you can try to get cute and make cases for Fields, Lance or Wilson, you really shouldn’t, especially with the 2021 scheme still TBD. Lawrence has the arm talent, IQ, athleticism, size and character to fit well in any scheme and any coaching staff. His only weakness I see is a reckless streak to force balls to his first option through tight windows. IMO this is simply a result of being more talented than the competition, throwing to receivers more talented than the opposition and having better scheming than the opposition. It should go away with NFL reps. Slam dunk pick. It’s time to bring sunshine to the garden state.
2. *Jaguars*- Justin Fields-QB-Ohio St
For as poor as their record is, the Jags actually have some pretty good pieces to build around. This has to be one of the youngest teams in football and with Coughlin gone, maybe they can actually start bringing in free agents and keeping stars in house. James Robinson, Laviska Shenualt, DJ Chark and a surprisingly good interior O-line lead by a potential all-pro in Brandon Linder give the offense a good baseline to build around. Give Justin Fields some good protection, an emerging young RB who can catch passes, an OC who can scheme first reads into space and a playmaking receiving group and we have a good chance to do something. For my money, Fields is the most accurate QB in the class and arguably the best at grasping route-tree concepts. Like Lawrence, he struggles to come off of his first read at times and for very similar reasons, though in his case it leads to less yolo balls and more tucking and running while second reads run free. He will need reps to come off of this, but in a quick-hitting system with playmakers, he could really hit the ground running.
3. *Bengals*- Penei Sewell-OT-Oregon
This pick is the easiest in the entire draft. Best LT I’ve personally scouted coming out to a team that needs it more than any other team, with an injured 1-1 QB who looked every bit the part in his rookie year. If it were any more obvious, Avril Lavigne would write a song about it.
4. *Broncos Via Cowboys*- Zach Wilson-QB-BYU
Either John Elway’s good will in Denver will be good enough to get him one last shot at drafting his QB, or a new regime will come in and want to draft their own QB. Either way, a new QB is coming, which is exciting given that they actually have some really good pieces on offense. Going with the idea that Elway remains, I can see Elway falling in love with either guy, likely seeing more of himself in Wilson, but Lance likely blowing him away in interviews and more importantly being slightly taller. In the end, while I have Lance rated higher, I think Elway will want to go the perceived safer route in Wilson, who is still a high ceiling player in his own right and has experience playing at high altitudes for BYU. Either way, I think Denver trading into the top 5 for a QB is one of the biggest locks of the draft. Dallas has a plethora of needs, but a healthy Dak Prescott has looked like a top 5 QB in recent years and is simply too good to walk away from. Since I have CB as their top need and Sewell off of the board, it makes sense for them to grab draft capital and still likely land a top 2-3 CB.
5. *Panthers Via Chargers*- Trey Lance-QB-NDSU
With Wilson off of the board, the Panthers pay a slight price to flip with the Chargers and ensure they get their QB. While I have Lance rated higher than Wilson for most teams, I actually slightly prefer Wilson in Carolina if they got their choice, but Lance is far too good to pass on. While Brady may not be able to run his full concept year one with Lance, Teddy’s still tentative nature has held back the offense at times and still lead to too many turnover worthy plays. They will need to slow down the game a bit for Lance if he starts from day one, but they have the pieces to do so. Lance will add a game-breaking dynamic to open up the entire field with his arm, while taking pressure off of CMC and demanding QB spies. This should really open things up for Brady to slowly unleash Lance. They have the pieces to have one of the best offenses in football (and the coaching) if this hits. With so many targets schemed into space and a heavy dose of CMC to make defenses respect the run, Lance’s potential accuracy issues will be muted and he has the ability to drive the ball in ways that help receivers functionally be more open than with a touch passer. They are also perfectly situated to start a cheap Teddy until Lance is ready with a long term minded coaching staff and ownership. Really like this fit and team.
6. *Eagles*- Caleb Farley-CB-Virginia Tech
I could see a case for the Eagles going after Chase here, but with how poor the Eagles secondary has been this year outside of an aging Darius Slay, I can’t see them passing on a talent like Farley. Jim Schwartz likes to put a ton of pressure on his secondary and Maddox/NRC simply don’t have the size or physicality to deal with what’s asked of them. IMO Farley has the highest ceiling of any CB i’ve scouted since Ramsey and similarly has the rare combo of size, speed and football IQ to match up with any receiver or QB in the game. The former QB still knows how to think like a CB and has the ball skills that made him highly recruited as a WR before he transitioned to CB. Farley checks every physical box, every mental box, every playmaking box and is said to have a home run character. If i’m searching for an issue, he can take an occasional miss-step in zone, but Schwartz is famously averse to soft zone. Farley has a bit of an injury history and is still fairly new to the position, but he has all-pro potential, a high floor and is a much needed good fit for this Eagles secondary. They can’t afford to pass on him.
7. *Chargers Via Panthers*- Samuel Cosmi-OT-Texas
The Chargers traded back, acquiring two fourths to make stomaching reaching for a tackle a bit easier. Still they have to do it. They look to have a franchise QB and play-action can only mask so much. The line is simply terrible. Per PFF, the Chargers line ranks as follows: tackles Sam Tevi and Brian Bulaga (71st and 56th out of 78 with Pipkins ranked 77th getting snaps), Trai Turner and Forrest Lamp (81st and 74th of 83) at guard and Dan Feeney (35th of 36) at center. Oof. The only borderline passable starter is a Bulaga at RT who will be 32 next year. With a QB who has wheels and big money tied to a fleet footed Ekeler, I think adding lateral mobility and athleticism to the line is a must. Cosmi isn’t a finished product technically or physically but he has the frame to add good weight while maintaining plus athleticism at the blind side and is used to playing with a mobile QB who will make life tougher on him. He rarely fully loses reps and should provide an immediate upgrade from Tevi, while having an extremely high ceiling. It’s time to change the identity of that line and lean into the play action game that is keeping the offense functional, even if I have Darrishaw rated slightly higher, I prefer this fit.
8. *Football Team*- Ja’Marr Chase-WR-LSU
People seem to be forgetting how good Ja’Marr Chase is after a year off. Justin Jefferson has been one of the best receivers in the entire NFL his rookie year, Terrace Marshall is a borderline round one guy, CEH was a first round pick and yet the most impressive skill player on that 2019 LSU team was Chase. While the Football Team clearly doesn’t have a long term solution at QB, the top 4 guys are gone and I’m not sure they have the skill players or line for a new QB to ever be successful anyways. When your receivers 2-5 are Steven Sims, Cam Sims, Dontrell Inman and Isaiah Wright, you don’t pass on a Ja’Marr Chase. Easily the worst 2-5 in the NFL. Logan Thomas isn’t a top 30 TE either. There are some pieces in DC. McLaurin is a stud and Gibson is everything I hoped he would be. The line has some good pieces, but have two weak links in Martin and Christian that need to be replaced before it can become functional. With a year left on Smith’s deal and 50 mil in cap space, the FT can afford to bring back Scherff, upgrade from Martin and take a swing on a mid round QB. Worst case scenario they go all in on a 2021 QB but actually have the pieces in place for him to hit the ground running.
9. *Lions*- DeVonta Smith-WR-Alabama
The Lions currently have Quintez Cephus and Geronimo Allison as receivers under contract in 2021...that’s it. They have approximately 1.23M in available cap space as it currently stands. I still expect them to figure out a way to bring back Kenny G, but even then, they are going to need a day one starter at WR. My mind is telling me Jaylen Waddle’s speed will get him to top 10, but I don’t love how his game meshes with Stafford nor am I fully confident he’s ready to go day one in 2021. Smith may be built like a teen who just hit a growth spurt but he’s a day one starter in the NFL and his game meshes really well with both Stafford and compliments Golladay’s. I’m really interested to see who takes in Detroit next year, but whoever it is, a potential unit of Kenny G, DeVonta Smith, an emergent TJ Hockenson and D’Andre Swift isn’t the worst place to start.
10. *Falcons*- Kwity Paye-Edge-Michigan
The Falcons need a pass rusher off of the edge, we all know that, it just comes down to which one; so having Rousseau, Paye and Parsons all still on the board is a dream scenario. While I personally have them rated Parsons, Rousseau and then Paye, it’s close enough between all three to go by fit. I honestly think the Falcons have a very strong linebacker corps and won’t get the greatest usage out of Parsons and while I love the idea of Rousseau sliding inside next to Grady Jarrett on 3rd and long, I think they need to go for day one impact and mainly the best all around true edge. For me, that makes Paye the best fit. Always a true freak athlete (which, check out Bruce Feldman’s freak list (https://theathletic.com/1938659/2020/07/21/bruce-feldmans-freaks-list-2019-college-football-top-athletic-performances-2/) but in 2020 he has made a herculean jump in production and polish. This a day one starter, with incredibly rare athletic traits, a feel good backstory and immediate impact at a gigantic need.
11. *Dolphins Via Texans*- Micah Parsons-LB-Penn St
I don’t need to go into too much detail here. The Dolphins have one of the NFL’s few good defenses thanks to a strong secondary and simply elite play calling and positioning from Flores/Boyer. That’s despite Elandon Roberts and Jerome Baker’s poor play and general talent. So what if we gave them a uniquely talented player who can play inside, outside and even play as a pure edge while fitting what the scheme wants to do perfectly? I can’t wait to find out. I think Parsons is still somewhat raw as a player and will have a few rough moments early on, simply because he’s been so so so much more naturally gifted than his competition for his entire life and hasn’t been punished for small mistakes. That said, I can’t think of a better landing spot at getting the most out of him early on and putting him in positions to succeed, nor can I think of a better player at mentoring him than Kyle Van Noy. Parsons will be an immediate upgrade and the potential for what he could grow into in Miami is tantalizing. Thanks Houston.
12. *Cowboys Via Broncos*- Patrick Surtain II-CB-Alabama
The Cowboy’s trade back pays off. I would have been between Surtain and Farley at 4th overall and while I would have leaned Farley, the gap certainly isn’t a 2022 (likely somewhat early) 1st rounder and a 4th. Pairing Surtain up with his college counterpart in Diggs should allow Diggs to go back to his natural 2 spot and provide an immediate upgrade from the triumvirate of Awuzie, Brown and Lewis. Surtain may not be the fastest straight line runner, but his hips are as smooth as they come and he makes up for any long speed deficiencies with elite mirroring and physicality. Surtain has improved as a tackler in 2020 and is probably the best day one starter at CB in this class. The Cowboys will need some safety help over the top against speed receivers, but this is an easy pick.
13. *Bears*- Christian Darrisaw-OT-Virginia Tech
The Bears would love a top 4 QB to fall into their laps at 13, but I just don’t know if they have the assets to afford a move into the top 5 right now. With Nick Foles more expensive to cut than to keep and only 2 mil in expected cap room in 2021, they will need to clear up some space. They happen to have two expensive tackles that are playing solidly but are the only non Akiem Hicks way to open up a big chunk of cap. With Ifedi a free agent expecting to see a bigger contract in 2021, the Bears have a day one need at tackle. Luckily for them, my #2 rated tackle is still on the board and is an absolute monster when he’s set and moves extremely well for his size. There are some issues getting set, but he has an extremely high ceiling and could help open up some much needed cap space for Chicago, while providing a long term solution to a two tackles who are due a lot of money, are cheap to cut and getting onto the wrong side of 30 (and coming off of a severe knee injury in Massie’s case). A receiver is an option here if they cant bring back A-Rob, as could be CB if they cut Fuller. Safety appears as a need as well, but nobody is close to a value this early. Darrishaw is the best value to need for me.
14. *Vikings*- Gregory Rousseau-Edge-Miami (FL)
I looooove this pick. A lot of people are low on Rousseau since he isn’t a finished product, but I think that’s pretty unfair. Rousseau, in his first year as a starter managed 15.5 sacks and 19.5 TFL. While his pressure rate made the sack total seem unsustainable, this is a player who will always have a high sack to pressure ratio due to his insane length, absurd speed to power and insane closing burst. Rousseau is unlikely to be a finished product in 2021, he needs to improve his move repertoire and would do well to use his length to shut down passing lanes. But he has a much higher floor than people give him credit for because he does such a good job of using his length to keep defenders outside of his body and can always detach from blocks. He physically resembles Jevon Kearse, which is something I’ve never said before and his athletic testing is going to be nutty. From a traits perspective this is a once every 5-10 years prospect. Minnesota has done a great job developing high ceiling players and have needs across the D-line. Rousseau setting an edge on run downs and sliding inside for passing downs (where he will be a nightmare from day one) will be a huge asset for the Viks. I can’t see them passing on Rousseau should he be on the board at 14 barring a sliding Trey Lance.
15. *Patriots*- Jaylen Waddle-WR-Alabama
It baffles me that a great defensive mind like BB has allowed himself to have such a slow receiver group, but I can’t imagine him just allowing it to remain as is. The Pats have holes along the D-line and would love a franchise QB, but have played themselves out of contention for the clear round one talents. While I have to imagine Kyle Pitts would be extremely enticing here, he doesn’t offer the ability to play in-line/move nor would he be functional slid in at FB. Without the ability to disguise playcalls, I see Waddle as the pick here to add some much needed electricity and field stretching ability despite having Pitts rated slightly higher. Jakobi Meyers has emerged as a solid receiver for the Pats and the ghost of Julian Edelman remains. With Waddle demanding defensive attention, perhaps he can open up some free space for N’Keal Harry to finally realize some of the yac ability that got him drafted so highly. Edge has to be tempting, but with Rousseau and Paye both off of the board the gap between what Waddle brings to the table vs a second round receiver and a Basham type vs who will be there at 46 leans heavily in Waddle’s favor. Assuming he’s fully healthy at the combine, I think this is Waddle’s floor.
16. *49ers*- Jaycee Horn-CB-South Carolina
The 49ers would love to see a top 4 QB fall to 16 and have to be somewhat interested in Trask and Jones as scheme fits, but they also currently have literally zero cornerbacks under contract for 2021, nor are they particularly flush with cap space nor do they have a third round pick. Jaycee Horn is not only my clear cut CB3 (maaaybe can see a case for Stokes) but he’s also a great fit for what Saleh wants to do should he remain in town. This is one of the easier picks in the first for me. Good fit, arguably best player available and absolutely massive,gaping, day one need. Wyatt Davis is a strong 1B for me though.
17. *Jaguars Via Raiders*- Kyle Pitts-TE-Florida
The Jags have a ton of picks early this year, a coordinator who excels at using athletic receiving TE, a rookie QB who they will be heavily invested in succeeding, a clear need at TE and a likely willing trade partner in Las Vegas. Trading up to grab Pitts is a no-brainer for me. He’s a top 10 talent in the class who could legitimately compete for WR1 in the class should he be listed that way. Is he a great blocker? No. But he’s literally breaking records at catching contested balls, runs the crispest routes i’ve ever seen from a TE and is going to be a prime Jimmy Graham level end-zone threat who can win at every point on the field. Who matches up with this guy? Not a CB, not an LB, maaaaaybe Isaiah Simmons on his best day or a Derwin James? Factor in Jay Gruden knowing exactly how to use this kind of talent and how ridiculously accurate Justin Fields is and you have to make this trade. A Justin Fields offense with this receiving group and Gruden calling plays gets me excited. Just need a tackle and a defense and we may just have something here. Jason Mendoza would be ecstatic.
18. *Ravens*-Wyatt Davis-IOL-Ohio St
The Ravens are reeeeally missing Marshall Yanda and Davis is easily the top IOL in this class for me. I think the Ravens are trying to move away from their 2019 offensive strategy since the don’t have the pieces, but the answer is actually to rebuild around what actually worked. That has to start in the trenches. Wyatt Davis embodies Ravens football. He is a genuine people mover, but he doesn’t sacrifice speed or mobility to achieve that power. He’s pure controlled aggression, and if that’s not a Harbaugh player, I don’t know Harbaugh. If Davis played any other position, he wouldn’t be on the board at 18. Plug and play week one starter who can help get the Ravens back to the 2019 glory. If Pitts is off of the board, this has to be the pick.
19. *Giants*- Joseph Ossai-Edge-Texas
The Giants situation isn’t as bad as I thought at first glance. They haven’t had the best offensive line pay, but with Nate Solder set to return in ‘21, Andrew Thomas starting to look closer to a top 10 pick and Matt Peart as an interesting developmental piece, it felt early to reach on a tackle and I don’t love any interior lineman enough to pull the trigger here. Receiver is a glaring need, but I think there will still be impact starters to get in round two and money to spend in FA as needed. I don’t hate Daniel Jones from my looks and think if the line and skill positions improve around him, he still has a chance to develop into a second contract sort of guy. He deserves his 40 start sample size. With Saquon set to return, that leaves edge as the most glaring need. Leonard Williams and Dalvin Tomlinson are both free agents (though should imo be brought back) and Kyle Fackrell doesn’t deserve another season as a starter. In Patrick Graham’s multiple 3-4 front, there happen to be two exciting players who fit the rush LB mold extremely well and fit value wise. Azeez Ojulari and Jospeh Ossai. I have Ossai rated slightly higher on my board and love his fit in this defense as a better early down linebacker with a higher athletic ceiling in coverage and better length to entice Gettleman while avoiding combo blocks. The dude is no slouch as a pass rusher either. I love the player and love the fit in a defense that might just emerge in ‘21 if things go right.
20. *Cardinals*- Eric Stokes-CB-Georgia
The Cardinals 2021 will have Patrick Peterson, Johnathan Joseph and Dre Kirkpatrick all hitting free agency next year, leaving just slot corner Byron Murphy and a soon to be 33 year old Robert Alford coming off a broken leg to end 2019, torn pec that cost him all of 2020 who can be cut to clear 7.5M of cap space. Corner jumps out as a need both long term and potentially from day one. Few players in this class have impressed me as much as Stokes has. Stokes has always been a technically sound player who shines bright outside in press, with loose hips and long arms to obscure passing lanes. But in 2020, he’s taken that next step into a playmaker. Despite teams tending to avoid throwing at him, he’s flashed greatly improved ball skills and even housed two of the picks he has. I think this is a true all around outside corner who can fit in any scheme and do whatever is asked of him. I don’t exactly see a pro bowl ceiling here, but I think Stokes might be the safest CB in this entire class and it wouldn’t shock me if he had the best rookie year of this solid corner class. People tend to underrate a good, polished CB2 chasing upside that doesn’t always fully develop. Draft good football players.
21. *Buccaneers*- Azeez Ojulari-Edge-Georgia
In a down IDL class, I’m tempted to reach for Barmore here and with Donovan Smith able to be cut to clear 14.25M in 2021, a polished tackle like Eichenberg is somewhat enticing. But with both Lavonte David and Shaq Barrett set to be expensive free agents next year, I think a rush LB/edge hybrid is the biggest need and it just so happens Ojulari is still on the board. When I watch Ojulari I pretty much see Shaq Barrett. A smaller, still long bursty/bendy player who can rush the passer at an elite rate, but will struggle setting an edge. Barrett is a good player, but he’s going to demand a contract that will pay him more than he’s worth and take him into the wrong side of 30. Ojulari can replace something very close to Barrett on rushing downs while a cheap Anthony Nelson is already an elite edge setter on run downs. Lavonte David is a much harder player to replace IMO and they should give him the big contract. Between Nelson and Ojulari, I think they can replace Barrett for 20M less a year and honestly, the pairing has a higher ceiling if everything comes together. It will also help the Bucc’s line get younger, which is much needed for future outlook. I can’t think of a better coach than Todd Bowles to max out a guy like Ojulari. Love this fit.
22. *Dolphins*- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah-LB-Notre Dame
After addressing linebacker with pick number 11, the Dolphins double down and draft another at pick 22. If you’re going to start two monster rush LB like Kyle Van Noy and Micah Parsons, it sure as hell won’t hurt to have an absolute speed freak to fly around and neutralize both TE and speed backs. The closest thing I’ve seen to Owusu-Koramoah is basically the 2020 Seahawks version of Jamal Adams (minus the injury) undersized for an LB but incredibly fast, incredibly good at deciphering plays and a surprisingly good blitzer. The dude finishes tackles against future sunday morning players too. As mentioned earlier, Elandon Roberts and Jerome Baker ain’t it, especially in a mainly odd front defense. JOK offers a truly unique skill set that not only compliments the pieces already there well, but will be maximized by a coach like Flores. The Dolphins have needs on the O-line, receiver and RB, but you won’t find another JOK in the second round, where they have two picks. Perhaps they can target Owusu-Koramaoh’s son, Travis Etienne with one of those picks.
23. *Colts*- Jaelan Phillips-Edge-Miami (FL)
The Colts have needs at WR,CB and will likely do their due diligence on the remaining QBs. However, the Colts top 3 snap getters on the edge (Houston, Muhammad and Autry) are all free agents, only Houston has been performing well and he’s already 32. Even if he returns, edge will be a need. While Phillips won’t be the top edge available on every team's board here due to a very small sample size and a long injury history, I have to imagine Ballard will be head over heals for this player. Ballard has shown in the past he wants to target athletes with length and Phillips has both in spades. The former #1 overall recruit has insane length, insane burst, elite bend,elite speed to power and knows how to use all four to be first to contact and shed tackles like snake skin. Phillips measurables and 2020 tape are clear cut first round grades and had he had three healthy years, he might be the top edge in the class. The dude even wins in coverage at 6’5 265. The question is, do you trust him to stay healthy. He’s the type of player that will be top 15 on 8 teams boards, mid day two on 10 teams boards and completely off of 14 teams boards. I think Ballard is going to fall in the first group of GMs and he will rush to the podium to get Phillips in the building.
24. *Browns*- Zaven Collins-LB-Tulsa
The Browns have clear needs at edge and linebacker. If Owusu-Koramoah were on the board, he’d be the pick and Dylan Moses has to make them think. But I think they instead get them somebody who can do both. Andrew Berry has shown a strong correlation of draft picks to PFF grades and guess who PFF’s top graded LB in all of college football is? Zaven Collins. More than just questionably important player grades at Tulsa, Zaven Collins has the unteachable traits you can’t coach and scouting teams will love. 6’4 260 pound men shouldn’t be able to move like this. Collins is nimble and agile and is going to blow up the combine. I’d bet money on that. He uses this blend of size and agility to simple avoid blocks at Tulsa but has the size and length to easily disengage at any level. He is borderline elite in coverage and has bullied American conference passers into 2 pass deflections and 4 picks (which he’s returned for 152 yards and 2 TDs) in just 6 2020 games. Collins can rush the passer as well and has legit edge size. Collins currently plays more fast (which he is) than powerful (which he also is). I’d like to see him learn to use his size to initiate contact and bully people at the point of contact because he absolutely can, but I guess why do it when you can just avoid them completely. The game speeds up from the American conference to the AFC North, but I think Collins is a day one LB, special teams force and has potential to develop into a very special player. Watching him play, he reminds me of a cross between KJ Wright and Jamie Collins, but bigger. Fun Player and easy fit.
25. *Raiders Via Jaguars*- Christian Barmore-IDL-Alabama
After trading back and acquiring an extra top 70 pick, the Raiders select the player they wanted all along. The Raiders need a more consistent pass rush. Clelin Ferell has taken a huge step forward in 2020, but he will always be a stop the run player more than a sack artist (as is Nassib), while I’m not ready to give up on Maxx Crosby, he hasn’t been the same player he was in 2019 (or close to it). Maurice Hurst has been their only good pass rusher for my money, but he will need help inside. Johnathan Hankins is a free agent, soon to be on the wrong side of 30. Vickers and Collins certainly aren’t the answer. In a down IDL class, Barmore is the only player I can see ging round one and is easily my top IDL in the class. Is he a polished player and tactician? Nope. NFL double teams will likely eat him if he can’t add more moves or play with better leverage. That said, if you try to double him, Hurst is gonna murder your quarterback. Barmore has rare length, bend and power for an interior player. He already wins against SEC lineman and can play all across the line despite being 310 pounds. When he wins, he wins quickly and is an immediate disruptive force up the middle. Put him outside in short yardage situations and back inside on clear passing downs and he will immediately be an upgrade for the black and silver. He won’t be a 3-down guy year one, but that doesn’t mean he won’t make an impact. Long term, the sky is the limit. This is the only IDL in this class I can envision making a pro bowl. He also just so happens to come from the winning culture that Gruden?Mayock love. It just makes too much sense not to happen.
26. *Jets Via Seattle*- Carlos Basham-Edge-Wake Forest
It’s still TBD who will be the Jets DC in 2021, but I think they have personnel best suited for a true multiple front but could certainly use a genuinely polished power edge suited to play both 3-4 and 4-3 edge. Basham is that guy and while Joe Douglas has a love for quick twitch athletes off of the edge, I think Boogie Basham would make too much sense to pass up on here. Basham (who’s cousin Tarrell is a current Jet likely to be brought back for 2021) is a relentless load to handle on the perimeter who has the kind of day one polish this team needs. Basham has a fantastic grasp on how to clog gaps on run downs, is a sure tackler with his massive wingspan, sheds blocks with a very impressive and polished array of moves, never seems to be out of position, doesn’t over pursue and get out of position and man knows how to use his long-limbed frame to create chaos. Across his last 19 games, he has forced 7 fumbles and tipped 4 passes despite being double and triple teamed week in, week out. Basham isn’t a poor athlete by any means, but I would say he’s more of a day two bend/burst combo than typical day one. That said, he has day one starter polish at 285, makes the players around him better and creates turnovers. This isn’t your 10 sack a year guy, but it’s your 6-8 sack a year, consistent 3 down/scheme versatile edge who makes the players around him better and brings much needed leadership skills.
27. *Titans*- Dylan Moses-LB-Alabama
I expect this to be one of my most controversial picks in this mock. With Clowney a free agent again, edge is a glaring need, but unless you want to reach big time for an edge there isn’t anybody left. With only 10M of cap space currently in 2021, Corey davis has likely priced himself out of town with a boom season. WR is a need but one that can be addressed later. Daquan Jones will need to be replaced at DT. But with Jayon Brown likely gone in 2021, I have to think the former LB and the former Patriot in Mike Vrabel is going to fall in love with Dylan Moses the player; as well as Dylan Moses the person. Moses is a freak athlete with a freak work ethic who clearly just loves the game of football. The movement skills, power and tackling ability are all special. That said, he’s had a somewhat down year. He has good instincts, but you can visually see him second guess himself and overthink plays. RPO’s, sudden moves and good routes have eaten him up in 2020. Who better to teach a special ball of clay how to turn his brain off than Vrabel? Moses will be a day one starter, immediate locker room leader and running back neutralizer in day one for the Titans. There will be some rough moments early on, but this is the kind of player Vrabel loves and the ceiling is really high for this pairing. A reach for Jason Oweh or Jay Tufele feel possible here as well, as could a Bateman or Marshall pick.
28. *Bills*- Shaun Wade-CB-Ohio St
Bills could use an edge if they can’t bring back Murphy, would have to take a long look at Moses if he were on the board and could really use a Pat Freiermuth...but if the draft falls like this I expect them to run to the podium. Josh Norman, Levi Wallace and Daryl Worley are all free agents in 2021 and Taron Johnson isn’t particularly good. With just 4.8M in 2021, this likely means the Bills will need a minimum of one cheap starting CB and likely both a slot and outside guy. Wade can fill both roles and is simply too talented to remain on the board here. Easy pick to make.
29. *Packers*- Rashod Bateman-WR-Minnesota
Do the Packers seemingly ever draft WR round one? No. Should they? Yep. Do they currently have the cap space to bring back Allan Lazard? Lol no. They have -18M in cap space next year. It’s worth noting that this means they are extremely unlikely to be able to resign Aaron Jones, which explains the weird AJ Dillon reach and opens up RB as a possibility. That makes me tempted to grab Kadarius Toney as a Kamara role hybrid, but that doesn’t seem like a Packers move. Terrace Marshall feels like a Packers pick, but he doesn’t block as well as Bateman and won’t be quite as good day one. I think Gutekunst will fall in love with Bateman’s boundary receiving skills, Rodgers will lobby hard for a receiver that wins with a skillset similar to Davante Adams and LaFleur will fall in love with Bateman’s alpha run-blocking game. Toss in the fact that Bateman in Green Bay will rip the heart out of Vikings fans and it’s an all around win. Linebacker is an absolutely glaring need, but all the good ones are gone and the Packers seem to hate drafting them even more than hate drafting receivers. Love this fit and pick.
30. *Chiefs*- Rashawn Slater-OT-Northwestern
The Chiefs have had one hell of a run, but 2021 will be the beginning of having to pay the piper. Even without resigning Sammy Watkins, Charvarius Ward, Breeland, Nieman, Wilson, osemele, Rieters, Remmers, Wylie, Robinson, Lev Bell, Sorenson,kpassagnon and Pennell among players who saw heavy snaps in 2020; they will be -15M in 2021 cap space. And that’s BEFORE the roster gets expensive in 2022. This means, at minimum two of the Honey Badger, Mitchell Schwartz and Eric Fisher will be cap casualties. Basically the entire o-line and secondary will be needs, as well as 1-2 WR. Rashawn Slater of “the only player not to be sucked into the void by Chase Young in 2019” fame can play 4 of the line slots, moves incredibly well for a man his size, can play in cold weather and is apparently loved by “NFL types”. This feels like a pick the Chiefs have to make.
31. *Saints*- Tyson Campbell-CB-Georgia
If you thought the Chiefs cap situation was bad….the Saints currently have -95M of cap space in 2021. -95M. Jared Cook, Alex Anzalone, Sheldon Rankins, Marcus Williams and Trey Hendrickson are impact free agents who won’t be able to be resigned. Making LB, FS, Edge and IDL big needs. Ryan Ramczyk, Marshon Lattimore, Malcolm Brown and Kwon Alexander almost 100% have to be cut. It’s a bad spot to be in. Tackle, QB, LB, DT and CB all stand out as the biggest needs. With two QB’s fully guaranteed over 33M in dead cap in 2021, reaching for a QB round one doesn’t seem likely. Jaylen Mayfield or a Liam Eichenberg seem possible, as could a Jay Tufele but there will be more potential day one starters there round two than CB. Tyson Campbell has injury concerns and has had a pretty poor 2020, but he looks built in a lab to be a CB1. I think this is the replacement for a Lattimore that the Saints simply can’t afford next year. It’s a very wide range of possible outcome player, but it’s a risk they have to take.
32. *Steelers*- Jalen Mayfield-OT-Michigan
The Steelers are yet another team in 2021 cap hell. Sitting pretty at -20M in 2021, the Steelers will have Bud Dupree, Juju, James Conner, Matt Feiler, Cam Sutton, Mike Hilton, Robert Spillane and Tyson Alualu as free agent starters. Edge, OT, CB and RB all jump out as big needs even before cap casualties and the QB of the future still isn’t in the building. In particular, tackle, edge and RB jump out as needs. Jalen Mayfield is a lab built tackle with great length, power and agility wrapped up in a prototypical frame. He is not yet a finished product, who struggles against speed to power and gets over his toes at times. But he has the traits you can’t teach and should thrive in a power concept. Year one will be up and down and in a perfect world, he’d have a year or two to season. Maybe Eichenberg will be a better fit. But he just screams Steelers power football when he gets his lower half right. I can’t see Mike Tomlin go for a RB with the ball security issues Etienne has and while Harris will be tempting, the needs up front are just too much to pass up on a potential starter.

The Tom Brady Saga, as sold by the NFL

The NFL has made huge money off the success of Tom Brady and the New England Patriots over the last 20 years. Immediately winning 3 Super Bowls over a 4 year time, becoming a great dynasty despite having not won a super bowl ever in their history prior. Coinciding with this great coming, was a tragic even on our nation, the attack on 9/11. If you recall, the NFL did not perform the national anthem before every game prior to the attack. And the players were often kept in the locker room on the occasion when it was performed. The NFL, being a for profit entity, generates its revenue from selling a product. In this case, entertainment under the guise of competition. Much like Fox news is able to market some of its programs as “entertainment” despite being portrayed as factual news to boost ratings, the NFL has the ability to support its subsidiaries and help to shape interesting narratives. With the surge of American flags and unwavering patriotism, it seems all to obvious that the team to rise to the forefront would be none other than the New England Patriots. Their mascot, a war ready minuteman, ready to wage battle for his country.
Now I must immediately make clear, the connection between these two events is not to be taken as conspiracy. Our country was attacked by foreign terrorist extremists. However, the NFL is a for profit entity. They have the ability to write and narrate events in a way to help boost ratings, so of course a successful season for the red, white and blue Patriots would be good for business.
If you’ve ever watched or played sports of any kind, you know that everyone has one enemy. The ref. Every call that goes against you is bullshit, and every time you feel slighted, they’re blind. There is one obvious reason for this. The calls that are made, or not made, can influence the outcome of the game. While we like to imagine Burt Reynolds in “The Longest Yard” going to jail for getting paid to throw games away, it’s much easier to influence outcomes if you don’t need the help from football players. After all, Burt Reynolds went to prison because he got caught.
One thing about high performers, and many athletes at all levels, is they are always looking to build momentum. To get the machine running so they can perform at the top levels of their game. With that knowledge in mind, changing the narrative could be the difference in getting a few calls at the right time.
When we look at the winning history of the Patriots over the last 20 years, there have been several prominent figures who helped shape the dynasty. Team owner and billionaire Robert Kraft, the stoic yet reliable Bill Belichick, and the young superstar quarterback, Tom Brady.
Starting at the top, we have team owner and billionaire Robert Kraft. The NFL is a web of business’s, with 32 of those being the team owners themselves. Much like owning a franchise, these owners have some control over how the team is built and structured, but it needs to fall in lines with the parameters laid out by the NFL. In order for the league to sell narratives, there need to be good guys, and bad guys. The good guys win, and the bad guys lose. But it’s big money in the NFL, and in America. And a rebranding is an expensive effort. Coincidentally, the Patriots completed construction of the new Gillette Stadium for the 2002 season. 6 short months after winning the teams first Super Bowl in history. This does seem to be true coincidence, since plans to build the stadium had been ongoing for several years. In business, football, and life, sometimes a little bit of luck goes a long way.
In the year 2000, while construction was under way on Kraft’s new stadium, he makes two key hires that would forever change the course of his team. The first of which is the hiring of Bill Belichick as head coach, and manager of football operations. A stoic man known for his perpetual scowl and guarded words; Belichick became the General of the Patriots. Credited with the being one of the most disciplined coaches in the league, this led to a record low in penalties over the course of his coaching career. With few outliers, the Patriots finished among the lowest penalized teams across the league each year under his guidance. He has also been credited with his cunning interpretation of the rules, leading to many questionable plays, formations, and other activities that other teams and coaches may have been penalized for harshly for. During a 2015 interview, Joe Montana is quoting as saying “if you ain’t cheatin, you ain’t tryin” in response to the infamous “Deflategate” where the Patriots intentionally deflated footballs in an effort to get an upper hand on their opponent. Two weeks later, the Patriots won another Super Bowl. In response, the league fined the patriots, and suspended Tom Brady for 4 games in the next season. The number 1 selling Jersey in 2015? Patriots quarterback Tom Brady.
If Belichick was Kraft’s best hire, then Tom Brady was a close number 2. Drafted in the sixth round of the 2000 NFL draft, it is hard to imagine 198 other players went before him, given his success at the University of Michigan. But drafting quality players is difficult, and college success doesn’t always translate to the NFL.
Tom Brady’s miraculous career has earned him the title of GOAT, Greatest of All Time. He now has 7 Super Bowl championships, more then any team in history, and more then Michael Jordan, Wayne Gretzky, or Babe Ruth. After spending his rookie season on the bench, he was given an opportunity to start on September 30, 2001, and proceeded to lead to his team to lead the Patriots to their first ever Super Bowl. The success of that season, and the era of dominance that followed, was immortalized by a field goal by the Patriots Kicker, Adam Vinateri in a game later known as the Snow Bowl. With less then 1 minute to go in the game, with the Patriots down by 3, a new rule was introduced to the game. After what appeared to be a fumble by Tom Brady, which was recovered by Oakland, the officials came together to review the play. The final verdict came to be known as the tuck rule, where despite his obvious attempts to not throw the ball, he is credited with an incomplete pass. The ball is returned to New England in field goal range, and the rest, as they say, is history. Momentum builds. But who decided the outcome of that game?
Over the next 36 months, as American involvement in the middle east waged on, moving to full blown war in 2003, we watch the Patriot win two more Super Bowls. As with the events preceding 2001, there is no conspiracy, because the government is not coordinating with the NFL in any way. The NFL however, is able to create whatever narrative they want in and effort to boost ratings and sell their product. And as always happens during wartime, Americans come together and remember their patriotism. We all love the red, white, and blue.
The changes that happen around the Patriots and Gillette stadium continue to move forward with rocket like trajectory. With the ever-growing Patriot fan base, the organization built a huge outdoor shopping complex around the stadium in 2007 known as “Patriot Place”. Complete with restaurants, sports bars, and even karaoke. Of course, there was no shortage of retail shops selling NFL licensed merchandise.
Over the next 10 years, the Patriots continue to dominate the NFL, breaking and setting records in nearly every category, and always staying disciplined, avoiding penalties at critical times. In 2007, the Patriots again set a high bar, making it to the Super Bowl, and breaking passing and receiving records in both yards and touchdowns. This season, however, was the first time the Patriots were caught “breaking the rules” and punished by the NFL. This time for spying on opposing teams play callers in order to have the upper hand. Later known as “Spygate”, the punishment was $250k, and the loss of one draft pick the following year. Without inside information and context, it’s hard to quantify how much value there is in winning one football game. What we do know, is the number 1 selling jersey, belonged once again to Tom Brady. The NFL also broke records on all time attendance, and television ratings that year.
As always happens when one team wins for long enough, they develop “haters”. People who look for any excuse to dismiss the value of a player or team. Given the nearly two decades of success, the Patriots have certainly earned some haters. What is interesting about the term haters, is that it creates a very convenient way to dismiss any criticisms as a straw man. Because it is always difficult to pinpoint which calls effect the game, and which do not, attacking officiating is an easy excuse on both sides. At the end of the day, the Patriots just kept winning, and that is all that really matters.
The same can be said of Tom Brady himself. Now having left the Patriots and still won a Super Bowl. Thus, proving himself as a great player, rather than a ‘system quarterback’. So, let us look at how he managed to have another great season, and how Tamba Bay became the next winner in the Tom Brady saga. First, when looking at NFL fans, and sports fans in general, teams have rivals which you cannot cheer for no matter what. After winning for so long, the Patriots rival was pretty much every other team in the AFC. That is half the league. Second, we look at other indicators of the market. One thing to note, Florida is the home to many retirees. In fact, the most popular hockey teams in Florida are the Boston Bruins, and the Montreal Canadians. If we look at the three NFL teams in Florida, two of them are in the AFC, obvious Patriot rivals. The third? You guessed it. The Tamba Bay Buccaneers.
When we look at the years of success of the Patriots, there is one question that came up again and again, how the Patriots can afford so many of the best players in the league every year. Isn’t there a salary cap to help keep the league competitive? The short answer, yes. But as with everything in business, it’s more complicated than that. If we look at Tom Brady’s contracts, his total income from the Patriots over 20 years was $235 million, however during that same stretch of time, he has also been paid around $100 million in ‘endorsements’. And while the Patriots cannot pay Tom Brady for endorsements directly, the NFL, and it’s web of business’s can find ways of ensuring he is paid more then the salary, every year. Said another way, his income is structured in such a way, that his impact on the salary cap is less then 70% of what it otherwise might be. For the highest salaried player on the team, cutting 30% off your salary cap is enormous. Freeing up money to pay players at other positions. It was said for years about Tom Brady, that he was willing to take less money for the benefit of the team. This was echoed by many teammates who were willing to accept a lower salary, to be on a winning team.
When we heard that Tom Brady was going to Tamba Bay, there was immediate excitement. Tamba Bay was a good team already, and a quarterback like Tom Brady felt like a sure-fire way to make the transition from contender to champion. Somehow, despite giving Tom Brady his largest contract of this career, the Buccaneers were able to roster several other high-profile players as well. Along with his old teammate from New England, Rob Gronkowski, the Bucaneers were able to add Antonio Brown, and Leonard Fornette to their offense, as well as ride out contracts on sever other big names players in Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Ndamukong Suh and Justin Pierre-Paul. In the NBA, this would be referred to as a super team.
Roster moves and contracts are all part of the game. But much life officiating, they are subject to the whims and desires of the company they work for. The NFL. When considering storylines and narratives, the NFL is likely to want their high valued players, playing in strong markets, and winning games. The willingness of ‘Patriot Nation’ to cheer for a team from a different conference, while being led by their favorite player, was an easy sale. And once the pieces were in place, the story line seemed to write itself. Nothing beats an underdog story, and somehow the NFL has sold it to us once again. Only this time, the “underdog” was a 6-time Super Bowl champion whose only thing left to prove was that, at 43, he was not too old to win again.
As we watched another season unfold, this time amid the COVID-19 pandemic, we saw many changes to the NFL. But there were many things that did not change, namely Tom Brady setting records. One trend in Tom Brady’s career continued to hold true. His team, now the Tamba Bay Buccaneers, finished the season with the highest +/- in penalty yards in the league. Terrific Tom Brady was so good, that he was able to bring the Bucs, who finished 23rd in that category the year prior, to the top of the charts. As always, it’s hard to say which calls effected the outcomes of which games, but we know athletes build on momentum, and having penalties go against you is hard to work through.
Now, before we get into the main event, Super Bowl 55, let us take a look at Tom Brady’s life and career. As discussed, he graduated from the University of Michigan in 1999. Michigan is a division 1 college, which may put it out of price range for many Americans, but Tom was given a scholarship, and paid nothing for his 4 year degree. This is not unusual though, as colleges pay big money for high talent. What is more unusual is his ability to share his high school game footage in 1994 with schools across the country. What may have been literally impossible for the vast majority, was as easy as hiring a video editor, compiling his high school footage, and sending that to his choice of colleges. There has been a lot of talk in recent years, about racial and social inequity, and the differences in access to opportunity for those of a certain race and social standing. Tom Brady was born to a well to do family, attended a D-1 school for free, and was drafted to play in the NFL which saved him from “having to be an insurance salesman”. For reference, Michael Oher, from the movie “The Blind Side” was orphaned and homeless when he was given his opportunity to play college football. Even LeBron James spent many of his early years without a home and used sports to get out of extreme poverty. For some people, being an insurance agent is a luxury. Despite this, Tom Brady’s story is constantly marketed as an underdog story. Someone who overcame his struggles to succeed. Remember, he was drafted to a $231k contract right out of college, which he attended for free. After his early career success, winning 3 Super Bowls in his first 4 years as a starter, he was introduced to supermodel Gisele Bundchen. The two began dating in 2006 and were married in 2009. The young superstar quarterback is now married to a supermodel wife. In the public eye, Tom Brady has come to represent a superhero of sorts. The epitome of what a quarterback should be. The fact that he is white, blonde, and beautiful is purely coincidence.
One last point before we get into the big game, an interesting side note from a game between the Carolina Panthers, and the New Orleans Saints but in 2015. It has long been speculated that certain players receive better or worse treatment from officiating crews, and that speculation was verified following an incident involving the young Carolina quarterback, Cam Newton. During that game, the quarterback for the Saints, Luke McCown ran the ball, and slid to the ground before getting hit. This is done to avoid injuring the quarterback, however, the defender tackled McCown resulting in a late hit penalty against the Carolina defender. Later in that same game, Cam Newton encountered a similar situation, but no flag was thrown in response to Cam’s being ‘late hit’. When asked about the non-call, the official told Cam “You’re not old enough to get that call”. For many fans this was a bit of a gotcha moment since it is always hard to tell whether a penalty should have been called or not. To hear the officials acknowledging favoritism, ageism, racism, or any other kind of differing treatment between players, really exposed the NFL’s ability to influence outcomes of players and careers. The story of Colin Kaepernick is not one I will go into in detail, but again we see the NFL’s ability to control the narrative.
Finally, we make it to the big game. Tom Brady and the supergroup Tamba Bay Buccaneers have made it to the Super Bowl. Their opponents, the reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs, led by another young quarterback, Patrick Mahomes. The story here is simple. The young, fast, athletic Mahomes vs the old smart, experienced Brady. If you have spent any time studying quarterbacks in the NFL you will find that the term athletic is used to describe quarterbacks who use their feet to make plays, getting out of the pocket, and often carrying the ball themselves. These players tend to be younger, since it is hard to have a long career if you get hit too often, they also tend to be black. When we talk about smart players, we are usually talking about more “traditional” quarterbacks (white), who step back in the pocket, read the defense, and try to get the ball out of their hands quickly.
As we watched the game, one thing became obvious very quickly. Penalty’s were going to have a huge impact on the outcome of the game. In the first half alone, Kansas City was charged with 98 penalty yards. 90 of those coming in the second quarter alone. All told, the Chiefs finished with 11 penalties accounting for 120 total yards. The Buccaneers were assessed 39 total yards on 4 penalties. One of which was called on the last play of the game, an unsportsmanlike conduct call, and accounted for 15 of the 39 total yards and ultimately had zero impact on the game. During the second quarter, the Buccaneers scored 14 points, all following penalties against the Chiefs that resulted in first downs for Tamba Bay. Given the understanding that football is a momentum game, this was essentially a deathblow for the Chiefs. Among the several penalty flags thrown, there is two of interest that include Tom Brady. The first, is a rare off target pass from Brady that is tipped and intercepted by Chiefs CB Tyrann Mathieu. That play was called back on a defensive holding call away from the play. As a result of the penalty, the Buccaneers were able to score on a short pass from Tom Brady. After that pass, Mathieu approached Tom Brady and held up a finger briefly before running towards his sidelines. Brady chases Mathieu down clearly upset by the action and draws a penalty flag. Another lesson you learn from playing or watching sports, it is always the retaliation that gets in trouble. However, in this case, the penalty was assessed against the Chiefs, with no mention of Brady’s retaliatory behavior.
It is easy to speculate what might have happened, or how any changes may have impacted the whole game. What we know about athletes, is they are creatures of momentum. And what we know about sports, is the easiest way to influence outcomes is to make sure momentum does not build the wrong way.
At the end of the day, you may be left wondering why. Why would the NFL want Tom Brady to win, what is in it for them? That answer is easy, and you likely already know what it is. Money. Nothing sells like a superstar. Just in case you are curious, the number 1 selling jersey of the 2020 football season, you guessed it again. Tom Brady

top tips for football manager 2020 video

The team at Sports Interactive offer their top tips for Football Manager success in this year's release. Written by Jake Tucker Published on 21.11.2019 · 12:23 UTC Football Manager 2020 tips The 10 best clubs to manage on Football Manager 2020: Man Utd, You need a top-four finish in 2019-20 and then a serious push for the Premier League in 2020-21, but there’s well over £100million to spend and it’s easy to get rid of fringe players for decent money. Find successful Football Manager 2020 tactics to download. Share your best FM 2020 tactics to help fellow managers struggling to create good FM20 tactics. Football Manager 2020 tips: 8 things to know before starting your managerial career By Ford James 20 March 2020 Kick off your career as a master tactician with these Football Manager 2020 tips Top Tips for Healthy Finances on Football Manager 33871 2 Sep 28, 2018 Financial management is one of the most important things on Football Manager. Football Manager 2020: 7 tips to kick off your managerial campaign Julian Sims Taking down the league can be a daunting task, but if you utilise these FM features you can win. Your free and comprehensive guide to Football Manager. Learn how to play FM and master tactics, training, team talks and much more. Football Manager, as complex as it may seem, is all about winning – just like any other game. It’s the ultimate football sandbox, allowing you to tweak and twist your team as you see fit, and Football Manager 2020 guide: how to create your own custom cup competition. By Ben Green. Published: 11:59, 14 April but we just want ‘Nation Top Division Teams’, Not only is Black Friday and Christmas looming closer; so is FM21 launch day. As our promotion to get FM21 for just £29.99 is ending soon, you may be worried that your laptop may not be up to the task of the new game. Thankfully, I’m a massive nerd who is here to help. I have found a specific laptop which should run FM21 like a dream, and is quite affordable so without further ado; here it is:

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Beginners Guide to Football Manager 2020 How to play ...

With Football Manager being made available to play for free for the next week due to the isolation, we have created this video for all the new people that ma... I kept a notepad by my side for two weeks and wrote down 10 things I WISH I knew when I started playing that have just made me better. Tips, tricks, tactics ... My favorite saves in FM have started in lower leagues. It is perilous, intimidating, and exciting to have no money or infrastructure at your back, but the cl... In this Football Manager 2020 experiment, I tested out 5 of the most popular tactics in FM to see which was the most successful. I tested out a different Foo... Have fun with FOOTBALL MANAGER 2020 Cheats in our ›MegaTrainer‹! https://MegaDev.Info/en/g/g/1966 The ›MegaTrainer‹ is MegaDev's all-in-one, plug'n'play Tr... The 'Tactic Tester' is out of Beta, and it has already analyzed most of the tactics posted to FMBase. The results? Here is how to find them, read them, and u... After testing lots of possible challengers, I've now found the best tactic for you to use in Football Manager 2020! Tested with Arsenal, the tactic helps the... So you've been appointed manager at your new club on FM20. Now what? This getting started tutorial will run you through assessing your squad, training, coach...