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Spoiler Alert: the results of the 2020-21 NBA Season
Some fans (like myself) loathe reading "spoilers" for their favorite TV shows or movies. Others actively seek them out. One of the best parts of being a sports fan is that it's impossible to look ahead and know the outcome of the season. However, I happened to stumble upon a Sports Almanac and will divulge the results for you now. Of course, if you're prefer not to know what happens this year, skip this post and be surprised instead.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Milwaukee Bucks : 50-22 With the news of Giannis Antetokounmpo's extensions serving as an early Christmas present, the Bucks roll into the year with good vibes and another dominant regular season run. Their new supporting takes some time to gel which leads to some more close games, but in turn that causes Giannis Antetokounmpo to play more minutes and put up better raw stats than ever (averaging 30 PPG for the first time in his career). Despite that, he's not a runaway MVP winner. Some voter fatigue and playoff backlash causes a split vote, with 5 different players receiving first-place voters. When the smoke clears and the dust settles, Giannis wins a close vote to snag his third consecutive MVP trophy. (2) Brooklyn Nets : 47-25 The Brooklyn Nets click together early, fueled by a healthy-looking Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. They race out to a 30-11 start to the regular season before taking their foot off the gas to help sustain their health. While that decision may help them in the long run, it costs Kevin Durant his early-season MVP buzz (similar to Kawhi Leonard's season in Toronto.) Still, the Nets enter the postseason with good vibes all around, which earns coach Steve Nash several laudatory media reports and nearly enables him to win Coach of the Year (he finishes second.) (3) Philadelphia 76ers : 46-26 Speaking of great press, new exec Daryl Morey receives plenty of glowing reviews himself after his tweaks to the roster work wonders. Thanks to the spacing of Seth Curry, Shake Milton, and surprise rookie Isaiah Joe, slashepasser Ben Simmons takes a leap up in efficiency, scoring a career-high 23 points a game and earning 2nd team All-NBA honors. Inside the locker room, it feels like there's a notable shift towards the roster being more of his team than Joel Embiid's. Of course, the club knows they'll need both of them to dominant to make a Finals push. (4) Toronto Raptors : 45-27 Reigning Coach of the Year Nick Nurse doesn't get half as much recognition as he should for another strong year at the helm, helping the club to easily beat their Vegas oveunder of 41.5 wins. Still, there are cracks under the surface. Now at age 34/35, Kyle Lowry looks like he's lost a step and struggles to match his 36 minutes per game from the prior year. Although nothing is official yet, it looks like the team may have to say goodbye to Lowry at the end of the season as he enters free agency. (5) Miami Heat : 44-28 The Miami heat don't ride their momentum from the Finals trip into a top seed, partly due to some leaky defense on the perimeter. Frustrated, Pat Riley decides to make a power move and trade for Victor Oladipo. The fit doesn't click right away as the team retains a similar record, but the Heat still feel confident that they can turn up the volume when the playoffs roll around. (6) Boston Celtics : 43-29 After losing Gordon Hayward, the Boston Celtics' ascent up the Eastern Conference stagnates. For the first time, the media appears to turn on this likable coach and club, wondering if the team needs to make a dramatic trade to shake up the roster. Ultimately, they decide to hold on to Jaylen Brown and the core and take their chances in the playoffs with the current lineup. (7) Indiana Pacers : 38-34 The Indiana Pacers attempt to shift their playing style under new coach Nate Bjorkgren, but some up and down play leads them to make a move and (as mentioned) trade Victor Oladipo prior to his free agency. Afterwards, they play more minutes with PG Aaron Holiday and PG/SG Malcolm Brogdon in the same lineup, a look that leads to a faster paced offense more befitting of Bjorkgren's ultimate goal for the team. That said, the decision about the future of the Myles TurneDomatas Sabonis pairing looms in the background. (8) Atlanta Hawks : 35-37 All the moves the Atlanta Hawks made during the offseason pay off -- more or less -- as Danilo Gallinari and Bogdan Bogdanovic give Trae Young some much needed help. A year after finishing 26th in total offense, the team leaps up into the top half of the league. Still, struggles on defense keep the team below .500 on the year and lead to a dogfight all year long for that 8th seed. (9) Washington Wizards : 34-38 New PG Russell Westbrook earns rave reviews from his teammates and from the press early on, as the club jumps out to a 12-8 record and a presumptive playoff spot thanks to a renewed effort and attitude. Ultimately, their poor defense (ranked 30th last season) and their young frontcourt lead to a few too many losses along the way and prevent them from clinching a playoff spot outright. Coach Scott Brooks is let go after the season in favor of Denver assistant Wes Unseld Jr. (10) Charlotte Hornets : 30-42 The Charlotte Hornets' maligned signing of Gordon Hayward doesn't look too bad (in year 1) as Hayward returns to near All-Star levels with averages of 18-6-5. Still, the youth on the roster cripples any chance of a true playoff finish. At the same time, the future looks brighter than before. LaMelo Ball wins a polarizing Rookie of the Year campaign with good raw stats (15-5-7) on bad efficiency, while R2 pick Vernon Carey flirts with All-Rookie team for a solid 11-7 first year as a scoring big off the bench. (11) Chicago Bulls : 28-44 One year after winning Coach of the Year for mixing the perfect cocktail in Oklahoma City, Billy Donovan doesn't find the same type of immediate success with the young pieces here in Chicago. Rookie Patrick Williams looks promising, but second year guard Coby White shows more inconsistency than expected in his sophomore campaign. (12) Orlando Magic : 28-44 Despite the losses of Jonathan Isaac (injury) and D.J. Augustin (free agency), coach Steve Clifford keeps his team in the playoff mix for the first few months of the season. But once the team stumbles during a 1-5 stretch, the front office decides to wave the white flag and trade Aaron Gordon. For them, the purposes are twofold: to give more opportunity to rookie PF Chuma Okeke, and to eye a higher draft pick in a strong class. With that rebuild in mind, the team decides to empower rookie PG Cole Anthony over the last few month, indicating that free agent Markelle Fultz may not be in their future plans after all. (13) Detroit Pistons : 25-47 Returning from injury, Blake Griffin flashes the All-NBA caliber talent that he displayed two years ago when he led the team to a 41-41 record. However, Griffin continues to miss time here and there, effectively ending the team's chances of being a true playoff contender. The limited spacing also reveals itself, as the team struggles mightily to score in the games Griffin misses (finishing 8-19 without him.) (14) New York Knicks : 24-48 Hard-charging coach Tom Thibodeau pushes the Knicks too much for them to garner the top spot in the NBA Draft, but they still manage to finish in the bottom 5. For all the early Rookie of the Year buzz for Obi Toppin, he fails to win the award due to Thibodeau overplaying Julius Randle and Toppin's own bad stats on defense. (15) Cleveland Cavaliers : 21-51 The undersized perimeter leads to an awful defense that leaves the Cavaliers among the worst in the league yet again. The team attempts to trade Kevin Love to a contender, but an injury complicates that timeline and leads to an offseason exit for the big man instead.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Los Angeles Clippers : 48-24 After their embarrassing flameout against Denver, the L.A. Clippers come back with a chip on their shoulder and an eagerness to change the narrative about them. Their regular season play remains similar (top 5 in offense and defense), but comes with more effort and chemistry as a unit. By the time the season ends, they've gotten right back to the level of the Lakers in terms of title odds (+270). (2) Los Angeles Lakers : 47-25 Unlike their cross-town rival (or rather, same-stadium rival), the L.A. Lakers don't feel the need to drive hard in the regular season after winning the title. LeBron James drastically reduces his workload in the regular season, going from 34.6 minutes a night down to 33.5. In the process, the Lakers lose their grip on the # 1 seed and LeBron James' loses his argument for another MVP. But as the playoffs approach, they don't seem to mind at all; they're still the betting favorite to win the title in Vegas. (3) Utah Jazz : 44-28 After a full year in the system, PG Mike Conley's struggles are behind him and he helps the team threaten for the # 1 seed. Returning big man Derrick Favors helps the depth and helps the defense return to the top 8 (after falling to 13th last year), and wing Royce O'Neale finally gets some credit for that as well, finishing on the All-Defense team. (4) Denver Nuggets : 43-29 While the Utah Jazz thrive because of their defense, Denver disappoints because of a declining one. Michael Porter Jr. looks like a future All-Star with averages of 16.7 points per game, but his struggles on the other end (in contrast to Jerami Grant) lead the Nuggets to finish in the bottom half of the league on D and prevent them from the presumptive step up that many expect. (5) Dallas Mavericks : 41-31 Luka Doncic and company look as good as ever, but their returns demand on expectations. Luka Doncic puts up MVP-caliber stats, but doesn't actually win it (losing to Giannis.) The historically good offense takes a dip as the team realizes how much they miss Seth Curry. In his place, Josh Richardson underwhelms for his second straight team. (6) New Orleans Pelicans : 38-34 After getting a lot of flak and a lot of flab, Zion Williams looks rejuvenated early on and the hype about him returns quickly. New coach Stan Van Gundy settles on rotations faster than Alvin Gentry did, and trusts his former player J.J. Redick more than Gentry did as well. Redick and Steven Adams' veteran leadership helps the youngsters play hard and fast every night, leading to a playoff spot despite inconsistent shooting as a team. Van Gundy wins Coach of the Year for the unexpected playoff trip and high seed. (7) Portland Trail Blazers : 37-35 Despite a lot of good will and public support (including a projected # 2 seed from ESPN's Bobby Marks), Portland looks like the same ol' Blazers again with strong offense and poor defense. The feel-good Carmelo Anthony storyline ends poorly. Coach Terry Stotts shelves Anthony towards the second half of the season (due to poor defensive numbers), leading Anthony to bristle and ultimately work out a buy-out with the team. (8) Phoenix Suns : 37-35 The Phoenix Suns officially turn the corner and become a winning team. Still, there's a stark contrast between their play with Chris Paul and without Chris Paul. And unfortunately for them, Paul's not as healthy as he had been the year before for OKC. He ends up missing 24 games, during which the Suns go 10-14. (9) Houston Rockets : 36-36 The Houston Rockets play hardball and push the Philadelphia 76ers for a James Harden-Ben Simmons trade, but Daryl Morey and the Rockets stonewall them (feeling no time crunch, given that their stars are both young and on long-term deals.) Fortunately for the Rockets, James Harden sucks it up, starts the year in a Rocket uniform, and immediately looks like an MVP contender again with his incredible workload and efficiency. Alas, his new backcourt mate John Wall doesn't look quite at the same level in his first year back. Wall's struggles hurt the team's ceiling, and ultimately cast a dark cloud over their future (with Wall owed over $40M in each of the next 3 years.) The Harden trade may have been avoided for now, but still looks likely in the offseason. (10) Golden State Warriors : 34-38 Returning star Steph Curry flashes the talent that made him a two-time MVP for stretches, but minor injuries keep derailing the momentum he has for an MVP push and for a playoff push for the team. Draymond Green doesn't snap back to prime form as many Warriors fans had hoped, leaving some doubt about his future with the club. Fortunately, rookie C James Wiseman steadily improves and looks like a future stud. Unfortunately, it won't be good enough to help the team for this season. (11) Sacramento Kings: 32-40 The bad buzz about the Sacramento Kings turns around as a healthy De'Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley III jumpstart an improvement from the year before. In fact, Bagley flirts with 20-10 averages, finishing just shy with 18.8 points per game. As a combo guard off the bench, Tyrese Haliburton is one of the most effective rookies in the class. Savvy analysts like Kevin Pelton push for him to win Rookie of the Year, but his limited minutes and counting stats leave him snubbed for the trophy. (12) San Antonio Spurs : 31-41 The San Antonio Spurs get out to a strong 14-12 start thanks to an improved defense (and a lack of Bryn Forbes), leading many to campaign for Gregg Popovich as a potential Coach of the Year. Eventually the team lags behind in the crowded Western Conference and turns the reins over to the youngsters. DeMar DeRozan gets reduced time down the stretch as the team gets an extended look at Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell as the potential wings of the future. (13) Minnesota Timberwolves : 29-43 Karl-Anthony Towns continues his blistering pace from three, but doubt lingers about the roster construction beyond that as the next best players (D'Angelo Russell, Anthony Edwards, and Malik Beasley) all look like scoring guards. Among them, Beasley appears to be the odd man out, leading to a trade to Orlando in a package that yields back Aaron Gordon. Gordon helps the team's defense, but not in time to make a playoff push for this particular year. (14) Memphis Grizzlies : 27-45 After a disappointing start to the season, the Grizzlies see no rush to bring back Jaren Jackson Jr. for heavy minutes. Instead, they try to find the right supporting players for the long haul. To that end, PF Brandon Clarke confirms his strong rookie season was no fluke, setting himself up for starters' minutes next season (with the idea being that they'll shift Jaren Jackson to the center position full time as well.) (15) Oklahoma City Thunder : 18-54 Sam Presti and new coach Mark Daigneault work in tandem to help secure a top lottery pick for the club. Thanks to newly expanded rosters, the Thunder team looks even more anonymous than the Hinkie Sixers by the end, playing the equivalent of G-Leaguers for the last few weeks of the season. While OKC lands the top slot going into the lottery, they end up with the # 3 pick and miss out on the chance to draft local product Cade Cunningham. Still, it may be a blessing in disguise, as other top prospects SG Jalen Green and C Evan Mobley project to be good complements to foundational piece Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
EASTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFFS
PLAY-IN GAMES The Charlotte Hornets earn some buzz (get it??) and some predictions that they'll knock off the Indiana Pacers, but the Pacers handle their business and win 1-0. Meanwhile, the 8th-9th series between Atlanta and Washington is a dogfight. Russell Westbrook helps the Wizards win Game 1 with a 23-9-11 line, but he goes an ugly 7-23 in the second game as the Hawks win out. ROUND ONE (1) Milwaukee vs. (8) Atlanta Atlanta's momentum is short-lived, as Giannis Antetounkoumpo and company crush them like bugs, 4-1. (2) Brooklyn vs. (7) Indiana Indiana fights harder than expected and manages to tie the series 2-2, but Kyrie Irving has a massive game 5 (43 points) and helps lead to a 4-2 win. (3) Philadelphia vs. (6) Boston Forget tough series -- this is an all-out war. Doc Rivers battles against his old team, and has an ace up his sleeve in the mammoth Joel Embiid whose size causes fits for the Celtics. With better shooting around him this time, it's enough to knock off the Celts, 4-3. (4) Toronto vs. (5) Miami Another great R1 series goes to the wire in Game 7. The Raptors' length bothers Jimmy Butler inside, but Miami's shooters provide enough of a pop to pull it out, 4-3. ROUND TWO (1) Milwaukee vs. (5) Miami Milwaukee needs to exercise their demons from last year, facing the time that knocked them off. This time around, Giannis is fully healthy and paired with a big-time playoff competitor in Jrue Holiday, who helps provide the difference as the Bucks win 4-2. At this point, many analysts feel like this will be "Giannis' year." (2) Brooklyn vs. (3) Philadelphia In another high-profile clash, coaches Steve Nash and Doc Rivers receive a lot of spotlight for their star-studded teams. Unfortunately, Rivers has no answer in the bank for Kevin Durant, who averages 34.8 points en route to a 4-2 victory. ROUND THREE (1) Milwaukee vs. (2) Brooklyn All year long, it looks like Milwaukee may have shaken off their playoff troubles and finally achieved their destiny. However, after a 2-1 lead, the tide starts to turn. Jarrett Allen and Kevin Durant's length helps limit Giannis to a mediocre series, allowing the Nets to rattle off 3 straight wins and make the Finals.
WESTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFFS
PLAY-IN GAMES A play-in series between former teammates James Harden and Chris Paul favors CP3 and his supporting cast, as the Suns officially cement their playoff spot. While Steph Curry and the Warriors haven't had a strong year, they manage to steal game 1 from Portland thanks to 6 threes from Curry. However, Damian Lillard and the Blazers crank it up a notch and squeak by in Game 2 to advance. (1) L.A. Clippers vs. (8) Phoenix Chris Paul gives his former team fits, but ultimately the Clippers pull out a slugfest, 4-2. (2) L.A. Lakers vs. (7) Portland A rematch of last year's R1 series goes in a similar direction, as the Lakers crush the Blazers 4-1. Anthony Davis averages 31-15, causing many to cite him as a top 3 player overall and future MVP. (3) Utah vs. (6) New Orleans The surging New Orleans Pelicans are a trendy pick for an upset, but the Utah Jazz continue to play the role of sleeper well, utilizing their defense and Donovan Mitchell's scoring (29.3 per game) to a comfortable 4-2 victory. (4) Denver vs. (5) Dallas Luka Doncic goes bananas against a soft Denver defense, logging 37-14-8 in Game 1 and 42 points in Game 3. However, Denver manages to get the job done in a 4-3 series. After the series, talk swirls about whether the Mavericks may need a third star to take the next jump. Mark Cuban spends the offseason on rosetta stone learning Greek. ROUND TWO (1) L.A. Clippers vs. (4) Denver Another rematch from last year, but one that doesn't lead to a repeat outcome. The Clippers are extremely motivated to put the Nuggets away when they have the chance, turning a 3-1 lead into a 4-1 victory this time. (2) L.A. Lakers vs. (3) Utah The plucky Utah Jazz give the favored Lakers everything they can handle and even take a 2-1 lead in the series. However, some big performances from LeBron James (and some questionable officiating) help the Lakers rally back to win three in a row and secure the ballyhooed showdown against the Clippers. ROUND THREE (1) L.A. Clippers vs. (2) L.A. Lakers A must-see TV rematch between Kawhi Leonard and LeBron James comes down to the "Others," as new Clippers' SG Luke Kennard plays much better than Lakers' shooters KCP and Kyle Kuzma. When the dust settles, the Clippers pull it out 4-2. After the series, the Lakers cite a lingering wrist injury to Anthony Davis as a potential reason why they didn't look 100%. NBA FINALS (2) Brooklyn Nets vs. (1) L.A. Clippers The NBA world misses out on a KD-LeBron series (or a Kyrie-LeBron series, depending on your perspective), but we still get an awesome matchup with other superstars like Durant and Kawhi Leonard. Leonard and Paul George bother KD to some degree, but the Nets' backcourt of Kyrie Irving and Joe Harris keeps their offense moving nonetheless. Irving has a few signature games (37 in Game 2, 31-9 in Game 5) compared to a quieter Paul George (15.8 PPG in the series) and helps the BROOKLYN NETS win the NBA CHAMPIONSHIP in a 4-2 win. KD wins a close vote for Finals MVP, but Irving and coach Steve Nash get a lot of credit as well.
bathrobeDFS - Daily Analysis for February 13th and Review of February 12th
Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started with the Review! Yesterday In Review: My Lineup- -
Analysis- I loved Lebron, I thought AD starting at PF was too good to pass up, and I thought Vuc starting against Okafor was also too good to pass up. I wanted to get the punts of Wright, Bullock and CJ Miles in and this left me exactly enough to squeeze in McGee, who I also loved. AD sucked so much I can’t even begin to describe it. McGee got into foul trouble and never recovered. Everyone else crushed it. Oh well. The Daily Slate: Matchup Specific Ceiling (MSC) Pick of the Day Matchup Specific Ceiling is a “quasi-metric” I use to make decisions. If you haven’t read my explanation, please check out this link right here The explanation begins in the “injury/lineup news” section about halfway down. In this section, I will pick the player who has fewest factors preventing him from reaching his ceiling, considering spread, pace, O/U, defense, usage, teammate health, and other factors. Dame Lillard - In an 11 game slate, we don’t have to worry as much about ownership since everything will be so spread out, but I expect Dame to be REALLY underowned compared to the Warriors he’s going against. There were a few people I liked for this slot, D’Angelo Russell and KAT, specifically. But there are a few factors that push my preference today onto Dame (8600). First, Dame is someone who, when he is playing well, gets priced around 10k. That should show you by itself he has an impressive ceiling. While it’s rare (as all ceiling games are), Dame has the talent to get you 80 DKP if everything goes well for him. The first advantage I give to Dame is the fact this game has the highest projected total on the slate, at 235, with a wonderfully low spread of GS -4.5. Golden State plays at one of the fastest paces in the NBA while the Blazers have been around 20th all season. So another bonus is the great pace up matchup Dame will get. In terms of usage, no one on the Blazers even comes close to Dame. While CJ and Nurkic will go back and forth as the #2 option, and both will sneak into the top 50 in the NBA in usage, Dame is top 20 all season, and we can count on him to continue that. Another thing that pushes me to Dame is the defensive setup of the Warriors. First, Cousins will be out for rest purposes, meaning one of the better defenders the Warriors have will be off the court. While Looney is not awful, Dame will have a much easier time making shots, getting passes through, and attacking the rim now. Second, Durant and Dray are both very good defenders. Durant is 10th among starting SFs and Dray is 1st among starting PFs in DRPM. Dray is going to make it really tough for Nurkic, and Durant will make it hard for the Forwards here. Klay, though, is the 5th worst SG in terms of DRPM and Curry is mediocre. He is 44th out of 96 PGs, placing him around starters like Elf, Teague, and DSJ, none of whom are considered anything special. This means that, no matter what, Lillard is going to be matched up with the weakest defenders this team has to offer. If this game manages to stay close, it is because Dame had one of his crazy games. He is someone who can get you 30 DKP in a quarter. If they come out playing tonight, this is going to be the game of the night both from a fantasy and game perspective. I hope you all take my advice on this one. Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):
D’Angelo vs. Cavs - My initial pick for MSC before I dug in more, D-Lo (8500) has been on fire lately. While he has thrown in a couple of bad games along the way, D’Angelo’s last few games have seen him get 60.25, 36.25, 54, 29.25, 33, 47.75, and 52.5 DKP. He is not going to be safe by any means. But what he is going to do is produce here. He is matched up against Collin Sexton, who is the worst defender in the NBA. The Cavs are awful at D as a team, anyway. I know the Cavs are one of the slowest teams in the NBA (they have been bouncing from 25th-30th lately), and Vegas has given an appropriate 221 total cause of it. But the spread of -6.5 means this should wind up being a close game, with a ton of points scored. Most of which will be by D’Angelo. He will be another one of the first people I lock in today. DeMarre (4600) will be back which makes it hard to play anyone else besides Joe Harris (4600), who is the only guy here who should see a guaranteed 30 minutes.
Underpriced Cavs - If you read what I said about D’Angelo, you know that the Cavs are really, really slow and the Nets are the fastest team in the NBA over the last few weeks. So that means the Cavs, who normally see one of the lowest number of possessions a game, will see a marked increase which should help everyone’s production. Again, that 221 total is not as high as some other teams’ today, but it is astronomical compared to the fact the Cavs normally live around the 205 range. Love (7000) is far too overpriced for someone playing 16 minutes right now. However, this opens up a ton of Center minutes. And those are Center minutes against the Nets, so they are worth a lot. This means Nance (6700) and Chriss (3900) are both fantastic plays again today. I know Cedi (5600) and Zizic (4800) are both probable, and either could cut into the production of both these guys, so pay attention. Either way, though, whoever is going to be getting the bulk of PF/C minutes in this game need to be played. Right now, that is Nance and Chriss. If that changes, so will I. As risky as they are, Sexton (4900) and Clarkson (5300) are just underpriced for how many points the Cavs are supposed to score and their normal role in all that. If you want a punt, and he starts again, Knight (3200) could get 20 minutes and pay off. It’s risky, but someone to consider if a lot of value doesn’t open up today.
Underpriced Pistons - No one is going to say a game against Boston is a ripe environment for fantasy production, but there are still some places we can get behind here. First Blake (8900), who should be near 10k, who gets a matchup with Marcus Morris (Who is awful. The only really horrible defender on the Celtics team). And Blake is going to make him pay all game. If he doesn’t get 50 DKP I would be pretty surprised. Ditto for Drummond (9100). He’s a little more expensive, and only has C eligibility, so it’ll be tougher to get to him, but he will get close to 40 minutes and he is the type of Center that can give Horford fits. This would be even better for him if Baynes plays and gets the start somehow. I also want to point out Kennard (3900) who will get near 30 minutes every game and shoot a bunch. Ditto Ellington (3800). I know he was pretty chalky and he put up 9 DKP in 19 minutes. But you have to look and see that he shot 1-8 including 7 threes. If some of those go in, he may get more minutes, and he certainly would have paid off his cheap price tag. While people may be scared here, I will be in on Ellington (barring some amazing value that will open up later on at some point).
KAT - The last time couple times I put KAT (10300) as my MSC play of the day, he got into immediate foul trouble against an awful team. Both times, he finished the first half with, like, 10 DKP. And, somehow, both games, he wound up over 40 DKP. Not that he saved your day, but he showed just how many points he is going to get you in a half against a bad team when everything goes right. Well, right now the place you have to attack the Rockets is at C, where they have an overworked and overmatched Faried as the only real option. KAT has inches and skill on him and he should feast here. Wiggins (6500) is questionable, so, should he miss, it would be another big boost to KAT. It would also give a boost to Teague (5800) who should get 35 minutes again and is underpriced for being healthy. Ditto Rose (5900) who is probable, and would eat into a lot of the usage Wiggins would leave behind. I also need to point out Saric (4600). If you didn’t follow the game, you would have missed that Saric got 2 fouls within a minute of the game starting. Seriously, like, the first two plays of the game were Saric fouls. He managed 33 minutes, anyway. He only got 2 more fouls the rest of the game, and he wound up with 37.5 DKP. If he gets another start, I will be a big fan of his as well. If Wiggins winds up missing, I will lock KAT and him in quickly.
Houston - I honestly don’t think anyone on this Houston team is priced high enough you need to get off them immediately. Harden (11800) has a shoulder injury, but he got more than 60 DKP against Dallas last game, and this is a much better matchup. He is going to be doing everything he can to keep his 30 point streak going, and I would be shocked if he doesn’t continue it. CP3 (7600) has 44, 49.5, 40.5, and 38.5 DKP over his last 4 games. He should definitely get into the 40s again. Like I said a week ago, he is going to be 8k soon, so get on him before he gets there. Faried (6600) is getting harder to recommend. I know they need him. I know he’s gonna get the minutes. I know KAT is a bad defender. But he just keeps producing at value, and I just don’t see a lot of wiggle room with Harden on the court. Austin Rivers will be out for this game, which makes the trio of Gordon (4500), Green (3800), and Shumpert (3800) much better plays. I would consider any one of them in a tourney, but I wouldn’t play them all together.
Nuggets - If you are going against the Kings, odds are you are in a nice pace up spot, the game has a high total, and it’s projected to be close. All 3 of those check out today for the Nuggets. They are also going to be seeing a really, really poor D. I know it’s beyond obvious, but Jokic (10100) should be priced, like, 1500 more in this matchup. He was another one of my considerations for MSC play today, and I could totally understand wanting to jump on that before anything else. Don’t ignore Murray (6200), though. He has shown you he can get you 50 DKP and Sacramento is incredibly bad against PGs. Fox is not a good defender, and Murray gets enough to do with Jokic that both can easily pay off here. Barton (5500) and Beasley (5200) are underpriced for their minutes/roles with Harris out, but I will still have a hard time getting to either today. I think they are safe, with a decent ceiling, but I think there are a few better spots to attack. That being said, If either wound up in my lineup, I wouldn’t be upset.
Warriors - Cousins will be rested for this game, which means the FarTooManyCooks will be downgraded to just TooManyCooks for one game. But their prices have stayed down as if Cousins was playing, so there is plenty to take advantage of here. If you read my MSC section on Lillard, you know this game has the highest total on the slate, with a great spread of GS -4.5. Portland is an average defense that can be taken advantage of by big SFs and wing shooting. Wouldn’t you know it, that just happens to make Durant (9300) and Curry (9200) both awesome plays. Honestly, at these prices, they could both EASILY pay off. Klay (6500) will line up against CJ, who is the weakest link on this team, and will see a nice production bump with Cousins out. As I always say, Dray (6000) is a fine play every game he is below 7k. The more he is under 7k, the better the play. And with Cousins out, he gets a bump as well. Looney (3700) should get the start, and get 30 minutes. I will love him here. Ditto Iguodala (3800) who will get 30 minutes and a ton of run in this game.
Suns vs Clippers - This game doesn’t have a total or spread yet, for some reason. But I wouldn’t be surprised if, when it all comes down to it, this emerges as the highest total of the day. If it’s over 240, I wouldn’t be shocked at all. I also think both teams are bad enough the spread should be something along the lines of LAC -4 or something around there. Basically, this is probably the best game on the slate and I will probably go heaviest here. I expect most people to be on GS/POR and HOU/MIN, and for good reason. I have talked about how much I love those games. But the people in this game could get just as many FP as the people in that game, and at a fraction of the total price. The most expensive player here is Booker (8300). With Tyler Johnson Questionable with a sprained ankle, he may be pushed back into more PG minutes, meaning if he doesn’t get you 50 DKP today I would be shocked. I will also point out that the Clippers and Suns are the two worst teams in the NBA against Centers. No team gives up as many points to a position as these two give up to Centers. So sign me up for all of the Ayton (6700), Montrezl (6900) and, if you don’t mind the risk, Zubac (4000) and Holmes (3700). The Clippers are almost as bad against PF as they are against C, so I would also give some serious consideration to Jackson (5900). If you play Jackson, i don’t recommend Oubre (5700), but if you are off Jackson, get on the Oubre wagon. Either of these two could get you a 50 DKP game tonight and the other one will get you 15DKP. I also love LouWill (7100) who always goes underowned since he comes off the bench. Additionally, Shamet (4000) has 26.75 and 28 DKP over his last couple games. He is getting 30+ minutes and, against this Suns team, he can push 30 DKP again pretty easily.
Situations to be careful of(in no particular order):
Bucks vs. Pacers - This is going to be a defensive game, between 2 defensive teams. I know the Bucks have been playing at the 3rd fastest pace lately, but the Pacers are plodding and slow, currently ranked 22nd. I don’t like playing people against Bledsoe (6900) or Collison (5800). Brogdon (5500) and Wes Matthews (4400) will be paired against each other. Both of these guys are underpriced for this game. I don’t know if Brogdon has the ceiling to win you a tournament, but he certainly should pay off his value here and could certainly exceed it. Wes Matthews played 30 minutes in his first game with the Pacers, and he shot the ball 10 times in a game that only had 189 total points. This one is projected to have 218.5. It’s certainly possible Matthews shoots more than that and reaches value just from raw points. Middleton (6400) and Bojan (5600) are both fairly priced. Meaning I expect them to get about 4.5x-5x. That doesn’t mean they are good plays, it means they aren’t. I don’t want fair priced players, I want underpriced players. I liked Bojan a lot more before Wes got here, taking a bunch of his shots. Giannis (11200) is a freak and no one can stop him. If he isn’t owned tomorrow, I don’t know how you can’t take a chance. Thad Young (6000) is a fine defender, but won’t have a chance against Giannis. Young himself is also fairly priced. I know MIL has been weak against PF on the year, I just don’t see him getting enough value at that price. Speaking of fairly priced people- Myles (6600) and BroLo (4900).
Sixers vs Knicks - The Sixers have 5 all stars and the Knicks are the worst team in basketball. I know you can never assume anything, but.. I mean.. Come on. The Sixers are coming off a tough loss to the Celtics last night. After the game, Embiid (10600) blamed the loss on himself, saying “he sleep walked through 3 quarters.” Assuming they don’t rest him today, I imagine he will take that personally and try to come out today and show it was a one game problem. I know he has a tough matchup against Jordan (5700), who is one of the best defenders in the NBA, but Embiid has shown he is matchup proof. I think this will be a game they need to play Jordan closer to 30 minutes, so he is cheap at this price. I also like the PGs, here, with Simmons (8400) and DSJ (6300) seemingly safe choices if this game stays close, but far overpriced if they only get 3 quarters. My favorites plays here are the cheap Knicks, Kadeem Allen (4100) and Mitch Robinson (4100). Both dudes are getting back up run, getting serious minutes, and putting up some serious PPM in the time they get. If this game blows out (or when), they are going to soak up all that time and usage too. I love both of these guys here.
Wizards vs Raptors - A 233 total? Yay! A TOR -11 spread? Booo. And I think, with Toronto at home, joined by Jeremy Lin (4300), that -11 is overly generous. Kawhi (9400) hasn’t been producing for his price lately, and I imagine that will continue in a game that he doesn’t need to dominate. Siakam (6500) is the safest of the big guys (who we want to attack Washington’s biggest weakness with), so, if you think this stays close, I would recommend you give him heavy consideration. But the Center situation, which is the best place to attack Washington, is a mess with Gasol (6800) throwing a spanner in the works. I really have no idea how you can pay that price for him or Ibaka (6100) when neither may get more than 24 minutes. And that’s if this game stays close. The one play I want here is Jeremy Lin. Give me ALL the Jeremy Lin. Toronto is also weakest against Centers which means I have a ton of interest in Portis (6300). As a bench player, he will probably get blow out run anyway since they want to keep him around 30 minutes. I don’t think anyone is safe in this matchup, especially since we don’t know how the coaches respond to various situations with their new rosters, but Portis is vastly underpriced for the 6x he should easily provide you here. If Sato (5900) plays, I have no interest in anyone else here. If he misses, you have to make a decision- if you don’t assume blow out, Beal (8700) will get you 40+ minutes and 60 DKP again. If you think this game does blow out, and they limit Beal’s minutes, McRae (3500) would be the best play for you.
Heat vs Mavs - A spread of DAL -2.5? Alright! A total of 209? Yuck. A game between the 27th and 29th paced teams in the NBA? Oh god, no thanks. That doesn’t mean you can’t get anything from this game (or any of these games), it just means I would limit your exposure. Doncic (8800) should be given serious consideration every game until he is 10k. Seriously. There’s no need to go further than that. I will also add Hardaway (5100) is in the best place to attack the Heat. I know he’s coming off a bad game in which he was chalky, but he is a scoring dependent player. If he shot doesn’t land, he will screw you. If he shot goes in today, he could win you a ton of cash at his low price. The only Heat players I would consider here are Waiters (4300) and James Johnson (4100), neither of which I like that much anyway.
Kings of Spreading Minutes - It’s just hard to trust any of these Kings players to get a considerable chunk of minutes. Worse yet, they play completely different on the road then they do at home for some reason. WCS (5300) tends to get less minutes (and produce worse). If you think that’s all malarkey, they are going to need him against that huge DEN front court, but I can understand If you, like me, are too hesitant. Really, the only place DEN is weak is on the wing, at SG/SF. With Harris out, this is a spot DEN has really had a really hard time with. For this reason, if I am going to go anywhere here (and, again, if I do, I will acknowledge they probably only get 30 minutes) I am going with Hield (6600), Bogdan (4900) and Barnes (5000) but in reverse order. I also think they are going to need massive minutes from Bagley (5900) so, again, if you are not averse to the risk, he is someone who has shown you he can get you 12 DKP or 55. Be prepared for anything in between that.
Situations to monitor:
Kyrie QUESTIONABLE - When they announced Kyrie would miss last night’s game, they also said they didn’t know what his status for tonight would be. Since we won’t get that information for a long time (most teams don’t do a shootaround on the 2nd day of a back-to-back), it means we should plan for both eventualities. If Kyrie (9400) plays, he will line up against R Jax, one of the worst defenders in the NBA, and I will be all over him. If he is out, I will have a hard time picking who I like on this Boston team. I think Horford (6200) would have to play extra minutes given the size of the Pistons front court. I would love him at that price. One thing we have to be careful of, though, is the Pistons have been pretty incredible at limiting fantasy points the last month. Over that time, they have been above average against every position (though weakest against PG/SG). The incredible thing, though, is they have only allowed 211.3 fantasy points per game, total. The next closest team is the Pacers who only allow 214.9. This is mainly a function of the Pistons playing at a snail’s pace recently. But, whatever the reason, the Celtics are only 18th in pace, so it’s not exactly like we should expect a fast paced game with no defense anyway. Given the Pistons weakness, I would also consider Smart (4800) and Brown (5100) who would get a lot of extra shots with Kyrie being out.
Dunn QUESTIONABLE / Conley QUESTIONABLE- a CHI -1.5 spread? Yay! A 203 total? Oh God, no! Two teams who have been playing at slow paces, this game is just not the best place to look when you have 10 other games to choose from. If Dunn misses, LaVine (7300) would be an interesting play, but I would look more at Arcidiacono (3500) who should get the start and a bunch of minutes. If Conley misses, I think you have to look to Delon Wright (3600) again. I also think that Avery Bradley (3400) had a career game. I wouldn’t chase those points, but he is only 3400 so it’s not like you have to commit a huge chunk of your salary. It’s hard not to pay that off if Conley misses, and you saw how high his ceiling could go. They said JoVal wouldn’t play back-to-backs, so that would leave us with only JJJ (6100), Rabb (5800), and Noah (4000). If they rest Noah as well, we have to be all over the other two guys. If all 3 play, Noah is cheap and can get you 30 minutes now, apparently.
Hey, You. I still love you. Now let’s win some money tonight!!!
bathrobeDFS - Daily Analysis for January 26th and Review of January 25th
Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started with the Review! Yesterday In Review: My Lineup- -
Analysis- So, my wife was going to visit my sister in law and her family this weekend (all the news is bad, and I just try to write to not think about it. So I apologize for not updating you all. But it's just getting too close to the end for me to want to think about it anymore than I have to). She had a ton of driving to do, and I had a lot of today to kill, so I decided to try something different- today I decided to max enter the $1 contest on DK. I had been playing around with that FC optimizer (I didn’t like the RG one), and I thought it would be fun to take the time today to learn about it, in the case I want to do it in the future. I will say I was heaviest on Russell, Tyler Johnson, Bayless, Plumlee, Portis, Giannis, Towns, and Napier. If I had to pick one lineup to define how I played this slate, that would be about it (with an edit, obviously, since it wouldn’t fit. I’d have gone down to Okobo from Napier.) It was fun, but difficult. I might try it again tomorrow depending on how I like the slate and everything. If I do keep doing this it will only be in the dollar or 25 cent one. I will try to explain who I was on the most of and what my best lineup was. However, I still did my main lineup and entered it around like usual. Russell was my first lock today. Boy that almost cost me everything didn’t it? He got his 3rd foul a couple seconds into the 2nd quarter and just couldn’t get it going. I was over on him tonight, and I still managed to be in the cash cause of the other picks. I was fine with the punts everyone was on - Napier and Plumlee but I also locked Tyler Johnson and Bayless in all my lineups from the get go. This left me 3 spots that moved around a lot in the other lineups. In my main one, I didn’t want to go with Harden due to the chalk ownership, so I went with Giannis, who I thought should get 60 DKP regardless of the blow out risk. I also liked Towns in case Gobert was out (and if Rose and Teague were out). KAT got into serious foul trouble and had like nothing at the half but really came alive in the 2nd half like Frampton and saved me tonight. With my third slot, I went with Favors. I was going to like him a lot more if Gobert was out, but I thought he was safe tonight, and had the chance to give a decent ceiling if Gobert managed to be limited and he had to play some extra Center tonight. The Daily Slate: Matchup Specific Ceiling (MSC) Pick of the Day Matchup Specific Ceiling is a “quasi-metric” I use to make decisions. If you haven’t read my explanation, please check out this link right here The explanation begins in the “injury/lineup news” section about halfway down. In this section, I will pick the player who has fewest factors preventing him from reaching his ceiling, considering spread, pace, O/U, defense, usage, teammate health, and other factors. Jokic - This was a really tough decision. I had to choose between Jokic (10700), Ben Simmons, and Darren Collison. While I really love all 3 of these guys today (and I will get into it later) I have to go with Jokic for a few reasons. First, if I were to ask you who on this slate do you think was playing at the fastest pace in the last couple weeks, you would probably look, see the Hawks and just assume it was them. But obviously it’s not them because I set that up and because I am talking about Jokic. Which means the answer is the Sixers. Over their last 15 games, the Sixers are 3rd in the NBA (the Hawks are 6th and Warriors are 7th). With Denver 27th in pace, this is, by far, the biggest pace up spot on the slate. The Nugs are gonna get a whole bunch of extra possessions and Jokic is the one who with benefit the most off of that for several reasons. First, Embiid is out tonight (as is Butler). This means the Sixers front court is going to be comprised of Mike Muscala who is 6’11” and has a good DRPM rating for a PF but 1- he defends backups which is different than the stars, 2- Jokic can’t really be defended, 3- He is playing Center, If you move his DRPM rating to C, he would be 24th. Other than Muscala, the Sixers have Amir Johnson as the primary backup at C. He is 6 foot 7 and one of the worst defenders in the NBA. The only other person they have that really mans the PF/C position is Jonah Bolden who is 6’10”, but will be starting at PF as it is. I don’t know if they bring up Patton from the G league or what, but they are going to be really thin. And that is going to lead to a huge game for Jokic. On top of that, Denver is coming off a hard-fought front end of a back-to-back. While they are home both games and I don’t expect it to matter too much, when you have someone like Jokic on the sidelines all game, resting and ready to play as much as he needs to tonight, you have made the best of a bad situation. Simmons and Brewer are also good defenders, meaning I would assume Murray and Barton will have a harder time than Jokic who should get to do whatever he wants today. There are only 2 people who I think have a good shot at the 3x2 bonus today, and I would think, while Jokic might be slightly less likely to get there than Simmons, he is still gonna be right on the door. In this matchup, he might be there by halftime. Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):
Darren Collison - With Oladipo the VICtim of a gruesome injury (sorry), I would assume many people are going to be talking about how Tyreke (5200) has great usage this year, will step into the starting lineup, and is the natural choice to eat up Oladipo’s production. I think that is bullshit. They’ve had plenty of chance to play Tyreke the entire season and they haven’t, with Oladipo playing or not. With Oladipo off the floor, Tyreke gets about 1 DKPPM. If he gets his 25-27 minutes he will just about reach value. And these numbers are skewed as it is, since this gauges his usage with Oladipo off the court, but for the most part he sees action with Oladipo off the court when he is running the second unit and he gets to do whatever he wants. He won’t get the same liberties starting next to Collison, Bojan, and Turner. If you dig a little deeper, Bogdanovic (5400), Tyreke, Myles Turner (6900), Thad Young (5800), and Collison (5600) have been on the court together for 194 minutes this year. In those situations, Turner has 1.24 DKPPM, Collison has 1.09, Bojan has 0.99, Tyreke has 0.86, and Thad Young has 0.79. So now let’s talk about minutes. I think it’s safe to assume Turner will get 35 minutes if this game stays close. Multiply that by 1.24 and you get 43.4. This would be about 6.3x value. Next, Collison got 32 last game when Oladipo went down. If we assume the same, that comes out to 34.88, which would be 6.2x value. You can do the rest of the math if you want. What is clear is that Turner and Collison are clearly the best two choices here. But those numbers don’t consider matchup. Turner will be matched up with one of the best defensive Centers in the NBA in Gasol, in a position Memphis guards well. Collison, on the other hand, will be faced up against Conley, who is the worst defender on this Grizzlies team, in one of the worst positions for the Grizzlies to defend. So, put that all together and, while I like Myles Turner, Collison is one of the best plays of the day today and I will be locking him in. I don’t care about the pace down spot. I don’t care about the low O/U. This is one of the only games projected to stay close and we need to take advantage of that. One of the other major beneficiaries of the Oladipo injury are the backup guards on the Pacers, namely Joseph (4100) and Aaron Holiday (3300) who are both exceptional punts tonight (even though Holiday close to no run last game, so be careful).
Kyrie - Unlike their opponents tonight, the Celtics have a very clear pecking order. That is: Kyrie (9300) first, then everyone else. This is backed up by the fact that the next closest Celtic in price to Kyrie is Horford (5700) who is 3600 cheaper. In a 4 game slate, we have to take what we can (especially when a couple of the teams are gross). What we have here, is the game with the highest total on the slate (229.5) while also having the closest spread (GS -2). We also have Kyrie at 25th in usage and no other Celtic anywhere near him. We also have the 20th paced Celtics in a nice pace up spot against the 7th ranked Warriors. We also have seen mediocre defense from Curry this year and very poor defense from Klay. If this game stays close, and I think it will, the easiest path for that to happen, for multiple reasons, is through Kyrie. With no one over 10700, and there already a bunch of value, we should be able to get a couple stars in there. Given the game environment, I don’t know how Kyrie isn’t one of them tonight.
Shorthanded Sixers - Embiid has already been declared out, Butler had to go to a specialist in LA for his wrist so, while he is technically considered doubtful, he realistically won’t play, Chandler has been declared out already, Fultz, Zaire Smith, and Patton, who are available on DK, should also all be out (though it is possible they recall Patton from the G-league for tonight). This leaves 11 people left for tonight’s game. One of them is Haywood Highsmith who, I swear to god, is a real person. Another is Shake Milton who, again, is totally a real person and not another stoner joke paired with Highsmith. So, basically, we should be looking at a 9 man rotation tonight (with Shake getting 10 or so minutes). The first, and biggest target here, is Simmons (9600) who should be able to sleepwalk to a double-double tonight with easy upside for a 3x2. I do expect McConnell (4000) to do a lion’s share of ballhandling in this game, though, so be aware. Generally when Butler is out, they like to move McConnell to the Point for large chunks of the game, and they move Simmons to the 3 or 4. Another major beneficiary tonight is JJ Redick (5600) who sees a huge uptick in usage and PPM with Embiid and Butler off the court. On top of that, Denver has been weakest against the perimeter (although I expect that will change when Harris and Barton get back into the swing of things. While I wouldn’t be surprised if they start TJ at PG, right now the rest of the starting lineup is projected to be Brewer (3800) at SF who will be locked into major minutes. But the real issue here, and one I addressed when talking about Jokic earlier, is the front court. The Sixers will have Muscala (4200), Amir (3600), and Bolden (4000) and no one else. That means Bolden and Muscala starting at PF and C respectively, but that all 3 of these guys should be in line for huge minutes, as well as the fact we may need to see a lot of TJ at the point and Simmons playing the 4. Additionally, just to round it off, Shamet (3500) and Korkmaz (3300) will both get backup run and, if it comes to it, blow out run. Right now this game has a nice O/U of 226, but Vegas sees Denver winning by 9.
Situations to be careful of(in no particular order):
Memphis Grizzlies - So, one of the biggest benefits to growing up in an era before the internet is I learned how to read a box score. And the box score from yesterday’s Grizzlies game makes me hesitant to go here today. We need to first understand that the Grizzlies were at home favorites here. They were projected to win this game, against a fast, defensively deficient Kings squad, by the score of 108.25 to 106.25. The final score was a Kings win by the score of 99-96. Yuck. Conley (7100) led the team in minutes with 34. He was one of only 2 Grizzlies to get to the 30 minute mark tonight. This was, again, a close home game the Grizzlies had a chance of winning. He had been getting to 36 and 37 minutes lately. I don’t know if this was just an aberration (it wasn’t foul trouble), or they were limiting his minutes (either due to the back-to-back or to keep him healthy for a trade). He was also doing fairly well against the Kings getting 16p/9a/62s/1b/4to, so extra run could have been a deciding factor here. Similarly, Gasol (7700) could have made a difference tonight. He had 4 fouls, so I can understand if they limited him due to foul issues, but 26 minutes still seems like a low haul. Digging into it, he got his 2nd foul 6 minutes into the 1st quarter and he didn’t come back into the game until 6:38 was left in the 2nd. The same thing seemed to have happened in the 3rd without a foul issue, so it had nothing to do with that. They just limited him. Again, if it was due to the back-to-back or to conserve him, I just don’t know. But I expressed concern about this yesterday, and I will keep being concerned until the trade deadline is over. The only Grizzlies I would take any chances on are punts here, meaning I wouldn’t mind Casspi (3400) and, basically, no one else at all.
Golden State TooManyCooks - It’s pretty bad here with this all-star team. If you pay attention to the usage numbers people have over 15 game stretches, you can already see the effect it is having on the superstars on this team. Curry (9100) and Durant (9200), who were both sitting around the top 10 in usage before Cousins (6200) came back, have fallen to 15th and 27th respectively. 27th! That puts Durant right behind Emmanuel Mudiay and right ahead of Jamal Murray! Come on! Klay (5900) who was in the mid-30s is now about to fall out of the top 50 at 47th. This broth taste terrible. I’ve already talked about how this is the game of the day, easily. The 229.5 total is the highest and the GS -2 spread is the closest. But, unlike Boston, GS is in a pace down spot. On top of that, again, the usage is just too hard to pin down to even two people. Odds are the winning lineup tonight is going to have to one or two people from this team. The question is how do you decide. Kyrie, Smart, and Horford are all at least good Defenders. Tatum is better than average. And Marcus Morris, who will be starting at PF, is 3rd worst in the NBA in DRPM. This would mean I give the only edge I can find to Dray (6300). He isn’t priced too high to kill you. He should be able to get 6x against Morris. And he should get some guaranteed minutes. As always, if you want to go down to Looney (4000) as a punt I am a big, big fan.
Hawks vs Blazers - While we shouldn’t really consider blowouts when we are dealing with a 4 game slate, the Blazers are at home and should be able to embarrass the Hawks tonight. Vegas has this at the 2nd highest O/U tonight, at 228.5, but also at the largest spread, with POR -10.5. While Portland is in a nice pace up spot, the Hawks have been playing slightly slower lately, so this isn’t as much of a difference as it was a few weeks ago. Additionally, for most of the season, the Hawks have been below average against every position. But over the last month, they have been above average against both PF and C. They are still terrible against PG, though, meaning if you are looking at the Blazers, you should start with Lillard (8900) instead of the similarly priced Nurkic (8600). I don’t know if I will be able to get to Lillard with Jokic, Simmons, and Kyrie out there, but if this game stays close he could give any of them a run for their money, especially against the 2nd worst defender in the NBA, Trae Young. I also want to bring your attention to Jake Layman (3500). He is the definition of a GPP play, but, if you’ve been paying attention he has been putting up some great games lately. His last game, he got 33 minutes, going 9-15 (2-6 from 3) with 83a/2b/1s and 20 real points which was good for 40 DKP. The game before that he shot 2-7 and only got 4p/31a on the way to 9.25 DKP. But the three games before that, Layman put up 20.75, 23.25, and 29.25 DKP. Even with everyone healthy, they are trusting Layman to come in and take shots and ownership and price have not caught up with that yet. On the other side, even though CJ is one of the worst defenders in the NBA the Blazers are above average against every position. I will, however, prioritize taking whoever will line up against CJ meaning that Huerter (5100), fresh off his injury, will be my favorite play on the Hawks tonight. I also want to point out that Collins (8000) can put up an easy 50 DKP every night and they still aren’t pricing him high enough. Additionally, Prince (5000) has been getting back up to the 30 minute range. He got 30 DKP last game in 28 minutes. If he is back to normal, he is one of the most underpriced people on this slate today. Get on him before he’s back up in the 6000s.
Situations to monitor:
NOTHING YET - As far as I can see… there is no one with an undetermined status that matters right now. I’m sure this will change tomorrow, but that’s what new articles are for
Until tomorrow’s GC/BC, I will leave you to think about how you want to attack this slate. I think I know what I want to do, but it’s gonna make this a real interesting evening. Either way, best of luck to you all tonight!! A RARE EDIT I meant to give my information for the Spurs/Pelicans game in case y’all wanted to do the Showdown, since I put this together anyway:
Vegas Info: N/A yet. Not released by anyone. Waiting on Injury news.
Pace over last 15 games: Pelicans - 11th, Spurs - 23rd
bathrobeDFS - Daily Analysis for December 26th and Review of December 25th
Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you like this information, I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. Yesterday In Review: Lineup-
Name
Price
DKP
Value
Proj Own
Real Own
Diff
Dame Lillard
7800
34.75
4.5x
15%
24.1%
9.1%
Harden
10900
64.5
5.9x
30%
42.9%
12.9%!!
PJ Tucker
4300
22.75
5.3x
15%
31.3%
16.3%!!
Kevon Looney
3500
20.75
5.9x
7.5%
9.6%
2.1%
Ivica Zubac
4400
39.75
9x
22.5%
32.8%
10.3%1!
Russ Westbrook
10300
53.75
5.2x
22.5%
10.5%
12%!!
Kyle Korver
3300
20.25
6.1x
1%
6.7%
5.7%
Ricky Rubio
5400
31.25
5.8x
20%
44.5%
24.5%
Total
44900
287.75
5.767x
Entry Fees: 25.25 Winnings: 44 Profit: $18.75 ROI: 74.2% Analysis- This was a unique slate for a couple of reasons: First, the incredibly soft pricing. It made it a lot more possible to play a couple of the big guys without sacrificing that much. It also let you play a lineup with Harden, Simmons, Embiid, Morris, and Kyrie, which I got off eventually. Second, even with the soft pricing, there was no one projected at more than 35% ownership. This made it more possible to just pick whoever you liked with less regard for how much other people were also on him. Third, There was only one game at a time, for hours. For someone, like me, who didn’t start anyone until HOU/OKC, that gave us a couple extra hours to finalize our roster based on new information. I knew I was going to play Harden today. That was not a question. He had no reason for being priced that low, and his projected ownership wasn’t high enough. Even if the projected ownership hadn’t been so wrong, I still would have been on Harden under 50% ownership. The second player I locked in was Zubac. Once McGee was ruled out, I knew Zubac was a lock. As I stated yesterday, McGee was out for 2 games before Chandler got the illness that originally caused him to miss a game. In the first game, Chandler got the start. They decided, though, this did not work and they let Zubac start the 2nd game and let Chandler come off the bench. Given they liked this better, and Chandler was coming off an injury, I knew Zubac would be starting and still getting enough of a run to more than pay for a 4400 salary. I hope you weren't scared off by Chandler. Zubac should have also been at least 50% owned today. The third/fourth players I locked in were Tucker and Looney. Both punts were underpriced for their recent production and opportunity. I also baked in the possibility of a blow out in the GS/LAL game, which would have given Looney, who could have gotten 20 DKP regardless, some extra run. This also allowed me the flexibility I needed to get a couple more of the stars I wanted. When the noon games went off, I had a different lineup. I thought the 20% ownership on Giannis opened up lesser ownership on Russ. If Giannis had been 10% owned, I would have stayed with Kyrie/Simmons/Embiid. It turns out that, while my ownership instincts were right, and Westbrook had 38+ DKP in the first half, he left PG13 run the 2nd half and barely finished over 5x. This led me to look at Dame Lillard. As I said in my analysis, Dame was probably the most incorrectly priced player on the slate. Down from a 10100 high, the 7800 is crazy for someone who could put up an easy 50 DKP in any close game. I was (and am still) convinced the ownership in POUTAH is going to be WAY under what it should be, so I wanted to take a chance at Dame at what could be a 7x spot. And that’s not a ceiling either. I tried to get some combination of people I liked in the 4000 range, but the possibility of running Dame back with Rubio who, while I wasn’t really high on, was cheap enough and what I thought would be too low an ownership, again (assuming the ownership projections are right, which, pardon my cynicism, they rarely are). If Lillard gets hot, and this game features more points than people would expect (the Jazz play MUCH faster this year) it was too much upside to ignore. This left me with 3400. I had a couple of options, but the fact the they’ve been giving Korver more of a chance, because they like how he spreads out the floor, swung the pendulum to him for my last spot. While there’s still 2 minutes left in the 3rd quarter of the LAL/GS game, I am still confident in all 3 of the plays from this game, and all of their abilities to get to 7x tonight. The Daily Slate: For those of you who didn’t read my Good Chalk/Bad Chalk article on yesterday’s slate, I did my best to talk about this quasi-metric I use to help me make decisions called Matchup Specific Ceiling. Since I think this is important and relevant to how I analyze things, I am going to cut and paste it today. In the future, if I need to reference this, I will present a direct link:
I want to talk about something before I get into the Durant situation. There is a quasi-metric I use I don’t think i’ve ever seen before that often helps me make decisions. I call it Matchup Specific Ceiling. I would say that the absolute highest a person can score, the General Ceiling, is a factor that doesn't account for any specific thing except "the most points a guy has scored." Even if this ceiling came on a day when the rest of his team was injured, he went against the worst defender in the league, at the highest pace, the "ceiling" never changes. Matchup Specific Ceiling attempts to use the matchup to find what the nightly ceiling for a person would be. My argument would be that, while we consider someone’s ceiling as a static number, there are any number of factors that can bring a potential ceiling down (much like someone’s normal projection is reduced.) I will say, off the bat, It’s really hard for me to explain this. I have been trying for the last few days to get out what I thought was an understandable reasoning but it’s been difficult. So, In order to explain what I mean by this, let’s take a look at Anthony Davis. When people talk about Brow (and others) we mention his ceiling and his floor and his projections. All of these things are useful as a general tool, but much less useful as a slate specific guide. Brow’s “absolute floor” is, i’d say about 30 points. This season, in games he has played more than 25 minutes, Brow only has one game under 40 DKP, but that was 31 DKP in 38 minutes on Nov 5th at OKC. I’d say his ceiling is about 100 DKP since i’ve seen him put up 100 DKP and a couple 90 DKP performances last year. However, while a general guide, this doesn’t really tell us anything about his specific matchup, just that, if everything goes right, Brow is an unstoppable freak of a beast. With Matchup Specific Ceiling, I try to think about specific factors that can reduce general ceiling in a specific game environment. For example, let’s start his general ceiling at 100 DKP. If he is in a massive pace down matchup, I lower this. If he is going against an amazing defender, I will lower this. If the rest of the team is healthy and will take usage from him, I will lower this. If he’s playing with nagging injuries, I will lower this. If the game has a low O/U, i lower it. If the game is expected to blow out, I lower it. So while we can still expect a completely random 100 DKP from Brow at any point, if the Pelicans roster is completely healthy and he was going against, let’s say, the Molasses Grizzlies who are 1) the Slowest Team in the NBA and 2) Playing Gasol at Center, who is one of the NBA’s top Defenders, I might say his Matchup Specific Ceiling in this case is closer to 75-80. Still a high number, but significantly less than what his General Ceiling could be if all the factors line up correctly (like a beautiful NBA syzygy). Just like we might think his median projection would go from 60 DKP to 52 DKP in a difficult matchup, I have found that factoring in a Matchup Specific Ceiling will help the decision making process. I will say, as well, this is not a function of range. I would say the general range of Brow against Memphis is 40-65DKP, but his Matchup Specific Ceiling (the absolute highest I could see him going in this specific matchup) is 75-80. By the by, since the start of the 2017 season, Brow has played Memphis 4 times and gotten 55.25, 57, 43.5 and 57 DKP. I think using Matchup Specific Ceiling is a good way of analyzing specific matchups in terms of production likelihood. If Brow was going against, say, the Hawks and Mirotic was out, I would still keep his ceiling close enough to 100 that I know he is an a smash spot and then we just have factor in price and ownership. Let's say, in general, if there aren't any real mitigating factors, a player has a 5% chance of reaching close to their ceiling in any given game (it is much lower, but we are going to use this for the example). If Brow has a Matchup Specific Ceiling of 80 instead of 100 due to a difficult matchup and other factors, the 5% chance of him reaching his general ceiling is going to be significantly reduced to under 1%. So let's use Matchup Specific Ceiling to weigh Brow against.. let's say PG13- someone who has a ceiling of 85 or so, but costs 1500-2000 less as well. If we assume Brow in a bad matchup and PG13 in a good matchup (one where his Matchup Specific Ceiling mirrors his general ceiling)- I have found that in this circumstance, Brow will 100% of the time feature a raw projection that is higher than PG13. Even if PG13 is in a better spot. Even if PG13 has a legitimate shot of outscoring Brow half of the time if this were run 100 times. However, if we consider the Matchup Specific Ceiling, we see 2 things- One, The reduction in Brow's Matchup Specific Ceiling means that PG13 and him have functionally identical ceilings THAT DAY (or, if we take it to the extremes, PG13's can be higher). Two, the odds of PG13 hitting his General Ceiling is significantly higher than Brow's. Again, if you just look at raw points, you would think that Brow is going to outscore PG13 100% of the time, because 100% of the time he is projected to. But if, in a specific matchup, PG13 has a 5% chance of hitting his 85 DKP ceiling, and Brow has a >1% chance of hitting his Matchup Specific Ceiling of 80-85 DKP, it's PG13 that should have a projection advantage that remains unaccounted for. I bring this up now because I think it’s extremely relevant for how I (and most people) think about the Warriors. What I would call a “lowered Matchup Specific Ceiling” for the Warriors players is also called “too many cooks.” You have seen plenty of analysts talk about how, if Curry is injured you should play Durant and Green, or vice versa in any number of combinations. That is because when you have the 4th, 12th, and 37th highest usage players in the NBA all starting for you, they are all going to eat into each other. USAGE AND PRODUCTION IN THE NBA ARE A ZERO SUM GAMEThere are only a finite number of possessions in a game. The more possessions you can take advantage of, the more DKP you can score (obviously) That is why pace is so important- the higher the pace, the more possessions everyone gets, and the more chances your players will get to score something. Again, though, each and every one of these possessions is a zero sum game. What this means is that, If someone else gets those points, I do not. There are X number of points that can get gained for every possession, and Y number of possessions you get in a game. There is no font from which Warriors players can draw DKP ad infinitum. There are no untimed innings where your team can score as many runs as the pitcher will allow. They are limited by, not only the quality of their own play, but by the quality of the other 3 (and soon to be 4) all stars around them. This means for every 3 that Klay makes, at most Curry, Durant, and Green can get points for 1 assist and there is one less potential possession for them to increase their scores. Every time Curry runs down the court and chucks a 3 from halfcourt, that is points that Durant, Klay, and Dray will never get. In this way, while a Curry or Durant may have GENERAL ceilings of 80-90 DKP, when everyone is healthy it dramatically reduces their matchup specific ceiling before even considering other game factors. Matchup Specific Ceiling is something I think we all naturally consider when we look at a game, a player, an environment, and a price in deciding what we want. I think that by making it something we can consciously factor in, it may help the maths we are already doing and help us make better picks. Even if this is something that isn’t new, I hope this explains what I mean by Matchup Specific Ceiling when I use it now and in the future, and I hope it gives you a new way to think about your players.
Now we have a neat 10 game slate to look at, so let’s get down to business. Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):
John “Paul” Wall and the Wizards - This is the first game I am looking at, so either the soft pricing from Xmas has carried over, or every wizard except for Beal is underpriced. Wall, who was 9800 3 games ago has fallen to 8600. Detroit is, by far, weakest against PG. Wall has the 19th highest usage rate in the NBA. He will be matched up with Reggie Jackson who is 80th out of 99 in DRPM for PGs. I say 80th out of 99, but the only starters worse than him are Wall himself, LaVine, Sexton, and Trae Young. Otto Porter has already been ruled out. Ariza is in the middle of “operation: run ariza into the ground” and his price just fell 200 to 5400. Markieff is getting run every day and he’s only 4500. He hits 25-30 DKP a lot. Even the punts have fallen, with bit players like Satoransky down to 3700. Not that he’s the strongest play, but he will be seeing enough backup minutes, and has enough usage, 3700 isn’t too hard to pay off.
The Pistons - The Wizards are so, so bad at D. At pretty much every position. They don’t guard the 3 point line. The Pistons are in a really nice pace up spot. The O/U is over 220 (221) and the spread is only DET -5. While there are so many good spots on this slate, i wouldn’t recommend this, but it’s certainly possible that Blake and Drummond stacked with Wall could lock you in to a ton of points where other people will be spending up. I also want to point this out- Here is the pricing for the Pistons- Drummond is 9200, Blake is 9000, R Jax is 5400, Bullock is 4700, Johnson and Brown are 3500. That’s right, there are only 4 players above 3500. Even DK and Vegas expect most of the production to come from those 2 in this matchup
Vucevic - I can already tell you the hardest decision you are going to have to make today is what Center(s) are you going to play. It might be foolish not to play 2 on DK. If you play sites like FD where you can only play 1 C, i really don’t envy you this evening. Ayton is a great rookie. I would be surprised if he wasn’t a perennial all-star in the future. But right now, he can’t even come close to hanging with Vuc. Vuc will play up to 37 minutes or so in close contests. On November 30, Vucevic helped the Magic blow these Suns out, he only needed 32 minutes to put up 25 real points on 11-20 shooting with 15 rebounds. He also had 1 block, which I think is closer to his floor in a matchup against this team with Booker healthy. His price was recently over 9k. 8900 is still a lot, but Vuc has a matchup specific ceiling of 75-85 DKP tonight and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he gets you a relatively effortless 60 DKP.
Devin Booker - As much as I like Vuc, it should be noted before I start talking about Booker, this game has a concerning O/U of 209.5 between the teams 21st and 27th in pace. As great a spot as Booker is in, I would only really consider him if you are the type of player who likes to “run back” your other play. If you are going to play Vuc, I would get Booker in there. ORL is a decent defense. They are basically at or better than average at every position according to DvP. However, the numbers say that, if anything, they can be attacked at SG and SF, which tells us they are probably weak against the perimeter. Also, DJ Augustin is not a good defender. What this tells me is that, no matter what, Booker is going to be in a matchup they can let him take advantage of. If Melton is running point, which will be for a majority of his minutes, he is in the best position possible against this D. If he runs the point, and they let him run iso, ooh nelly. He is fairly priced at 8500 for someone that can put up 50 DKP in this matchup if the game stays close. Again, I doubt I will be on him but, if i DO wind up on Vuc, I will also wind up here and won’t feel badly about it at all.
Kemba/Cody ZelleD’Angelo Russell/Joe Harris - I have told the story of why I am a Nets fan. If you sat me down a year ago and said, “bathrobe.. I want you to picture a game where the Nets play the Hornets in the future. The Hornets have one of the best PGs in the game, with top 10 usage. The Hornets are also playing at the 14th highest pace in the game. The game total is 221 and the Nets are projected to win by 2. How far in the future are you?” I would have said, maybe, 2021? If we were lucky? And yet, here we sit, on Boxing Day of 2018 in this exact situation. On the 15th, Kemba was up to 9300. That game blew out and he only played 25 min, causing his price to fall to 8400 immediately. It still hasn’t sufficiently rebounded and still sits at 8400 a week later. This game is supposed to stay close, and, if it does, it will be on the back of Kemba and, since they are playing the Nets, whoever is at Center. In that circumstance, the play is Cody Zeller (if you think this game blows out, pivot down to Hernangomez). People who only check game logs will see Zeller, who was priced 5300 one week ago, has shit the bed recently, with 8.75, 15, and 18.5 DKP performances. But 2 of those games were over early enough, Zeller only got 20 and 21 minutes (and played against people who can actually defend the C position). The other also devolved into a blowout and Zeller missed out on minutes that may have pushed him over 5x value. The game before that ALSO blew out, but it was against the pathetic C defense of the Lakers. Zeller got only 20 minutes, but provided 26.75 DKP. And the last close game the Hornets played, on 12/14 against the Knicks, Zeller put up 48.25 DKP in 37 minutes. Seriously, I can’t stress this enough, the first thing you should do on any slate is see if the Nets are playing and, if they are, check the Center they will be going against and his price and then just lock him in anyway. The league average is 53.3 DK PPG to the Center position. The only 2 teams allowing over 60 are the Suns at 62.6 (Hello Vuc) and the Nets at 64.3. C’mon. Why am I still pretending there is anyone who disagrees with me here! On the other side of the ball, The Hornets have been weakest against Guards and Wing players, meaning Russell, who is 11th in the NBA in usage, stands out at 7500. Additionally, while I expect people will be over Kurucs more than Harris, due to Kurucs recent performance, his cheaper price point and his better OPRK according to DK, I think taking 3s will be crucial to a winning strategy, and, especially with Crabbe out, Harris is the one they give that responsibility to. Another player that can give you 25-30 real points today at under 5k.
Jrue - This game features a healthy 228.5 total and a spread of DAL -2.5. Dallas is, BY FAR, weakest against guards, and, while Brow is a freak, nearly 12k for someone who will be seeing the fantastic D of Jordan is someone I will look to pivot from. Jrue was over 9000 recently and, in this game environment, he should produce like someone priced over 9000. Mirotic being out also helps add to Jrue’s usage/matchup specific ceiling. With everything up in the air, we may not know who we can play on the Dallas side of the ball, but if you are looking to take advantage of this game, I think Jrue will be your best bet among the big 3 of Randle, Brow and Jrue. I would also posit he will be the least owned.
Rudy Gay - The position you can attack the Nuggets at the most efficiently is PF, where Rudy Gay plays a majority of his minutes. At 5900, given his recent production in limited minutes (due to blow out), Gay is a slam dunk tonight. While the Spurs tend to always win or lose by blow out, this game is projected to get to a decent-but-not-great 214, and stay close with SAS -3. I would wager that some of that is on the back of extra production out of Gay (though DeRozan is also in a fine spot if you want to stack this game).
Kings vs Clippers - Fun Fact- the Kings are the only team out of all 20 that are playing in a back-to-back, traveling back home after this game. Another fun fact- The Kings are 2nd in pace and the Clippers are 9th. A 3rd fun fact- this game is projected for the most points on the slate at 239 with a close enough spread of LAC -5.5. A 4th fun fact- there is not a single starter in this game that is in the top 10 of their position in DRPM. A 5th fun fact- there are no starters in the top 50 in usage in this game. The only player getting decent minutes in the top 50 is Lou Williams who has raised his usage ranking from 6th to 4th since Friday. A 6th fun fact - finally, finally, finally we have a late night hammer game (one that starts 2 hours after the 8th and 9th start at 830) that doesn’t have a bunch of injury news we have to wait for. You know how many people are Questionable, Probable, or Doubtful?? 0. I think that this game will have pretty high ownership, but I think it’s not going to be as high as it should be, either. I just can’t imagine people being OK with paying 8200 for Fox or 7200 for Hield or 6600 for LouWill coming off the bench. There are SO MANY center options, not nearly enough people will be on WCS at only 6500. And after his last dud, plenty of folks will be hesitant to play Montrezl at only 5700. Again, this game is a hair away from an insane total of 240. There are going to be a ton of points put up by a bunch of people. This is not the matchup to fade any of them. Given how weak the Clippers are against PG, and how few people I think will play him at that price, I will have a hard time getting off Fox tomorrow.
Situations to avoid (in no particular order):
Pacers - When I was doing my notes I saw this game, saw the Hawks, and expected to love it. But digging in more (and looking at pricing), I think I will wind up staying away. No one with any credibility will argue there is someone you can’t play against the Hawks. The matchup is so good, with Atlanta being first in pace, and near the bottom in defense, that anyone has a legit chance of going off. This makes me worry about not only the risk of a blowout, but the ability of the Pacers to slow this game down. This is what I imagine happening- Indiana Player takes a shot with 2 seconds left on the shot clock. The Hawks Centers, who can’t hang with Turner when they are all healthy, are all banged up. So if the Pacers player misses, Turner has a good shot at the offensive rebound. He throws it out to Collison or Oladipo and the process repeats. On the other side, the actual decent Pacers D will cause the Hawks to miss shots that, again, Turner will have an easier chance at getting. This will cause the game both to have a low total, a lower number of possessions, but also blow out. If Oladipo wasn’t 8700 and Turner wasn’t 8000 I would be interested, but I see far too many ways for this game to go pear-shaped to take a risk here, not with so many better game environments out there.
Raptors vs. Heat - It is now 12:06am on Boxing Day. The O/U for this game and the Wolves game haven’t come out yet. We know we are waiting for word on Rose before the O/U comes out for the Wolves, but, as far as I know, we are not waiting on any injury news, no one is questionable that carries major weight, and there are no extenuating circumstances that would create hesitation in Vegas. Still, I would expect this to be a defensively minded, low scoring, slow paced game for which there is no one priced at enough of a value that I consider them viable. Ibaka has been called Probable already, and the only news on Kawhi is that he will start playing back-to-backs in January. This isn’t a back-to-back for Toronto either.
Cavs v. Grizzlies - THE PROJECTED TOTAL IS 196.5 WITH A SPREAD OF MEMPHIS -10.5 I will make this simple, don’t play a god damn thing from this game.
Nugs vs Spurs - Apart from Gay, I just don’t like this game between the 25th and 26th paced teams, at prices that are completely fair for everyone. I would be all over this game if everyone was 1000 cheaper, but, as it is, everyone is too fairly priced for this game environment.
Situations to monitor:
Hawks - As I said before, I don’t really have much interest in the IND/ATL game. However, there are a couple of things we have to consider. First, injuries- Lin is Probable, Prince is still Out, Collins is Questionable, Spellman is Out, Dedmon is Probable, Len is Questionable, and Plumlee is Out. That’s a lot of value that could open up. Second, on the Hawks side, if Collins is out, the most expensive player on their entire roster is Trae Young at 5900. It’s not a great spot, but every single one of the Hawks can be in the conversation for punt plays here. If they somehow manage to make this game close, those points are going to come from somewhere, and that somewhere is INSANELY underpriced. Again, this isn’t a place I see myself prioritizing, but I would certainly not complain if I fell into a Bazemore or Huerter if Lin manages to miss. Or Dedmon if he is the only healthy big for the game. He will probably get eaten up by Turner. Or the Hawks can just play small all game, hurting both Dedmon and Turner’s minutes. But he has a legit shot at more than 30 minutes at only 5200 as the only healthy body. Make sure to pay attention to the developments throughout the day to see what value opens up and what it means for ownership and this game’s spread.
Wolves/Bulls - The 2nd game with no current O/U, we are waiting on the 2 questionable tags for Derrick Rose and, somehow, Zach LaVine. I imagine if LaVine is in, he will be limited which would remove all consideration from any guards on this team. Rose is Questionable, but got a practice in with the team on Monday. If he is healthy and not limited, I will go here for 6800, even in what may turn out to be a blowout. What can’t be argued is that, regardless of Rose’s status, KAT is also one of the best plays on the slate. Chicago is weakest against C, KAT is 44th in usage in the NBA, and Chicago has no one that can hang with KAT. While 9400 is a lot, again, there are very few spots better for a player on this slate. I imagine the great options, as well as the threat of blowout, will suppress ownership on KAT. if this game stays close, we could see him approach his ceiling, especially if Rose is limited or out altogether. On the other side, if LaVine is out, Markkanen and Dunn are expensive enough people won’t play them, but too cheap for their production. Also, with Portis out, Robin Lopez has been getting into the 20s in minutes. At 3100, he may be one of the best punts on the slate (especially if this game projects to blow out)
Mavs - In a 228.5 total game where the Mavs are projected to win by -2.5, we are going to have to find some pieces from here. Right now, Smith, Barea, and Matthews are Questionable. If all 3 are out or only Barea plays (I assume Barea will play, and the other two are truly up in the air), Doncic, who’s price has risen to a healthy 8300, will be dramatically underowned for the production he will put up. Again. 228.5 total. 8300 is a lot. And it’d still probably be 1000 too cheap for a matchup against the Pelicans. Basically, everything is going to come down to the news tomorrow. We have to find out who is in, who is out, who is limited, who isn’t and then get what we can out of this game, cause odds are we will need it.
Alright! With that, my Boxing Day article has drawn to a close. I hope you are more Mike Tyson today than Glass Joe. Let’s all get rich today!
bathrobeDFS - Daily Analysis for February 25th and Review of February 24th
Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started with the Review! Yesterday In Review: My Lineup- -
Analysis- Man, another mess of a slate. First, I am still angry that, when I started my work yesterday, there was no 3 game slate available. That changed everything, and I’m sorry I didn’t do a normal full article in that case. Second, Kawhi was ruled out from out of nowhere, even though it’s not a back-to-back, forcing everyone to scramble and change lineups completely. Including me. Also, I am pissed off to the point I don’t know if I’m going to play any Knicks anymore. With Jordan out, you had to assume Kornet would get at least SOME run tonight at 3900 but, instead, he got 0 minutes in the first half and they let Ellenson get some minutes, which I predicted yesterday, but not at the expense of Kornet who had been getting 30 minutes a game. So ugh. Knicks. Sorry. Not gonna go there again. I locked in Lowry, Lin and Gasol with Kawhi out and Gasol starting. I thought Lin would get more run than he did (like FVV would), but they didn’t use him even close to the same way. I also loved Terrence Ross in that game so I locked him in. This let me get Jokic from the DEN game, who i thought was the best play on the slate, as well as get LMA, Gay and Kornet in the last game of the day. I was looking OK until DeRozan went off (as I predicted. ugh.) and Kornet didn’t get in the game. For some reason. That no one knows. Except Fizdale is a shitty coach we can’t trust. Ever. Enough Sentence Fragments. Let’s. Get. Down. To. Biz. i. Ness. (I think that’s actually Will. i. Am’s brother). The Daily Slate: So, I am going to ditch the MSC section. It just isn’t what I was hoping. Most of the time, with the injury news, the play isn’t as good as it should be, and I feel like I am forcing that person into my lineup, regardless of the news, at my own detriment. I will still let you know the players I think will have a better chance of reaching their ceiling, but, especially on a day like today - one with 11 games and a ton of studs questionable or worse - it wouldn’t benefit you to pick someone now when everything will change so dramatically before lock. I do hope to be able to do a Good Chalk/Bad Chalk more often from now on to combat this. But we will see how it all shakes out. We have to remember, I am new to this. I only started this a couple months ago and I’m trying to do something different with this long form experiment. With talking about more than basketball. With everything. So it will be a living, breathing, evolving thing. It also means I am up for suggestions to how to improve it! Besides the MSC disappearing for the foreseeable future, there is another major change- a significant addition that should help you out, and help increase the amount of communication I can engage in (even more than here or twitter). Ever since someone told me about Slack a month or so ago, I have been looking into a chat app to provide more of a real-time ability to talk to people about the slate. Or discuss breaking news. Or answer questions if I can. I was going to do Slack, but it was too much of a clusterfuck for me. I can understand why it’s popular, but it’s just not as easy to manage as I want something like this to be. While I was looking around, a few of the people that helped start FanDuel got a hold of me and wanted me to try a new chat app called Flick. I downloaded it and gave it a go and I really like it (or I would either use something else, or just not do this yet). I will be able to chat in real time. I will be able to make new topics for everything and anything I want. So I can make a new chat every day for every slate. For MLB and NBA. I can regulate it so it’s invite only, so we won’t be harassed by trolls and people trying to give us bad information. All of this was very important to me, since I really believe in what I am doing and don’t want to hurt its quality in any way. Expanding to something I can’t control, where harrassment is possible and it’s too easy to lose things, just wasn’t going to work for me. So starting tomorrow, I am going to be crossposting everything I do here into Flick, in a new topic, where I can answer questions or just chat about various process issues. It will be faster and easier than messaging me here or on twitter (though, as an older dude, I may not be as good at it as I should be). So, if you are interested, I would download the Flick App and send me a DM here or on twitter and I will send you the invite link. I am excited to give this a try and I hope it helps all of you as much as I think it will. Alternately, you can probably just look me up on the app as “bathrobeDFS” and ask for an invite there, but I have no problem doing it here or on twitter either. Ok. That’s enough with that. Let’s look at this crazy 11 game slate. Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):
Kemba - Let me say that, given the fact he will matched up against 5th worst SG in Klay, I also like Lamb (5400) a lot today. But no one is in the ballpark on this team that Kemba (8900) is in. With Zeller back, he is a different player and he is someone who, especially in this game, can get you closer to 60 DKP. First, CHA is 28th in pace and GS is 3rd, meaning this is an awesome pace up spot for Kemba. Second, Kemba is 10th in the NBA in usage. And on top of that, he will be lined up where GS is weakest- against Guards (SG moreso, but that doesn’t mean Kemba won’t get some Klay sometimes). This game has a 234 total and GS is only projected to win by 7. If it stays the close and Kemba gets you 40 minutes again, he would have to be unlucky just to finish at value. He’s just priced to cheap for the matchup, the pace up spot, and the fact that Zeller is back up and healthy.
Warriors Dart Throw - Which one is it going to be today? Or will they just spread out the usage? Since Cousins (8000) had his minutes limit lifted, he has played 2 games. In both, he only wound up with 27 minutes. His price, however, has spike from 6100 to 8000. He’s not getting any more minutes. And now he’s going to have to get 35+ minutes of his insane PPM to get us enough points to help us win a tourney. Curry (9300) has been hot lately, and has a fine matchup. However, so does Durant (9400). The problem is, again, who is going to get the usage? Curry will be lined up against Kemba, who is mediocre. Durant will be lined up against Batum, who is mediocre. Just pick the one you like better, as much as it sucks to say something like that. Anyone who tells you they KNOW what is going to happen with this Warriors team is trying to sell you something and, frankly, lying to you. Even the experts are as frustrated as you with a TooManyCooks situation. The best thing you can do is take a chance on a Klay (6700) or Dray (6000) whose prices are low enough they could really pay off with a ceiling game, and their floors are high enough that they shouldn’t kill you or keep you from the cash. Meanwhile, if you spend 9400 on someone and they get you 40, you are going to have a harder time than if Klay or Dray gets you 30. Either way, this is an awesome game. There are going to be a ton of points scored by this Warriors team, and, given how close it’s supposed to be, we can count on that production through the entirety of that game (we would hope).
Kevin Love - Well, let’s just tackle this. Kevin Love (6900) will probably be the overwhelming chalk today. They finally let him play some 4th quarter minutes and he responded about as well as you could have asked, putting up 54 DKP in 26 minutes. 32 points with 12 rebounds is nothing to yawn at, and Love, as the only real star on this team, will have to do that every single game if he can. If he can get 30 minutes today (and, if they want to have a chance against Nurkic, they will need him in for that long), he could top 50 DKP again easily, even against the improved defense Nurkic provides over an Ivan Rabb. Though, to be fair, he should see some minutes against Kanter as well who is statistically the worst defensive Center in the NBA. To me, this is like a Cousins situation, though. If he is not owned tomorrow, I will take a chance on him. If he is chalk, like I expect, I will have to look elsewhere. It’s an 11 game slate- there are people around 7k who can get you 50+ DKP and will be getting 38 minutes. How can you take someone who is only getting 26 when there are so many other better options out there?
Lillard and CJ - I mean, it’s not really breaking news at this point, if you’ve been reading my articles, that Collin Sexton and Trae Young have been flip flopping as the worst defender in the whole of the NBA. Right now Sexton is 2nd worst, but that is still second worst in the NBA. As bad as he is, the Cavs are even worse against SGs. So if you are looking for a couple dudes in a pace down situation, in a game that’s projected to blow out, take a good shot on Lillard (9200) and CJ (6400). If this game manages to stay close (for example, if they let Love play 30 minutes), Lillard and CJ could both pay off here. With how deep everything else on this team is, and with the addition of Kanter taking 20+ minutes a game, it’s really hard to trust anyone else, especially with Nurkic priced at 7900.
LMA - I know it’s easy to look at yesterday’s game. People were all over LMA and DeRozan and LMA disappointed to put it lightly. It would be easy to see that and get off him today. I mean, he was against the Knicks, right? How could he not deliver? Well, the answer is simple- the Knicks started Vonleh at Center and he is one of the best defenders on that team. Bar None. Not that LMA didn’t get himself into foul trouble. But it wasn’t as easy a matchup as him playing Center against the Nets. Oh yeah! I’m as excited as the Kool-Aid Man. We get to play LMA (7500) in a game he should sleepwalk to 50 DKP at less ownership than he should have. We never know what Pop is going to do in a B2B so we have to be careful but, assuming LMA gets his normal run, he is one of the top plays on the slate today. The Spurs are 21st in pace and the Nets are 2nd, so this is a huge pace up spot. He will get more rebounds since it’s the Nets. The O/U is 231 and BK is projected to actually win by 2, meaning they are going to need him to produce tomorrow. I just have to be all over LMA here. I will also mention that White (4800) is expected back but should still be limited by his heel injury. He missed yesterday’s game and only played 20 minutes in his first game back from the injury. If he misses, Bertans (3900) will get a bunch of extra run and he should produce really, really well in this matchup.
Nets - If you look at the recent DvP, the Spurs are the worst team in the NBA against PG. Even though White is highly rated as a defender, he has missed time with an injury and, when he has played, it has been limited by said injury, both in terms of minutes and ability. I mean, the Spurs play at the 21st fastest pace but give up the 4th most DKPPG. That’s insane. This game has a 231 total and the Nets are projected to win by 2. So, when I tell you DLo (8400), who has been on fire lately (55+ DKP in 3 of his last 4 games, the other was a blowout), should be at least 1000 more expensive, it means he is one of the top plays of the day. He is the lead dog of this offense and no one is even close. He’s 8th in the NBA overall in usage. Nothing is going to stop him today, with a hobbled White trying to defend him. I am all in on the D-Lo train. Choo Choo. I will also point out that, since having his minutes restriction lifted, Crabbe (4100) has played 4 games, getting 31.25, 25.25, 26.5, and 12.25 DKP. While he may have another 1-8 shooting day, the odds are he is going to also be needed to shoot 13 times again this game, pushing closer to the 30 DKP range of his production. At 4100 and 1% ownership, I’ll take that all day. Lastly, LeVert (5400) is still too cheap, but he is only a GPP play. You are hoping he will get you closer to his ceiling and not another 18 DKP game. Just be aware of the risk if you want to go there.
Heat Injuries - Right now, Justise, James Johnson, and McGruder are DOUBTFUL meaning we should count on them not playing. With Dragic (4900) coming back from an injury and seeing a heavily limited amount of minutes, it means we are going to get a few really, really great plays here. Did I mention that the Heat are playing the Suns?? The Suns that give up the most DKPPG in the NBA? The Suns that don’t know how to play D? The Suns that have 3 people in the bottom 5 in DRPM (Booker, Oubre, and Ayton). The Suns that are a huge pace up matchup for the Heat? Hell yeah. The most expensive Heat player is Whiteside (6600) and I would assume this is one of those games they don’t need him as much. I would be a big fan of playing Bam (3900) then, especially on a slate where we will need the value. I also think Wade (5100) plays a bunch of PG minutes, meaning we can count on him getting some extra assists and, therefore, extra DKP. He is going to be far too cheap here (unless Dragic is completely unlimited). I would also think Derrick Jones Jr (3400), who got 27 minutes last game, would also be in the position to do so again today and should hopefully be able to produce at a better clip. On top of all of that, PHX is worst in the NBA against SG. I expect Waiters (4700) to get some extra production his way and he is already someone who’s been pushing 30 DKP every game. This is just a game replete with options and we are gonna be able to sneak some of these dudes in to help us get some studs in.
Tyler Johnson - So, in their last game, Tyler Johnson (4800) got 35 minutes against the Hawks, shooting 10-16 on his way to 49.25 DKP. Is it chasing points to be on him tonight, or is there some other explanation we can ascertain here? I would say that the matchup against Trae Young was crucial, but in this game, he will be facing a similar situation- Dragic is limited and Wade is one of the worst defenders in the NBA at his age. He’s not facing Winslow, which would make me more concerned. In that game, Booker was facing Baze and Ayton was facing Dedmon, two of the Hawks best defenders. In this game, Booker will be facing Richardson and Ayton will be facing Whiteside, the Heat’s two best defenders. Listen, I know that, when it comes down to it, this team is going to be Devin Booker (8600) shooting the ball 28 times a game, leaving scraps for all the other people (making him a great play any day, even against a slower, tougher opponent). I had previously said that you should choose between Oubre and Jackson. Now I think you need to choose between Oubre, Jackson, and Tyler Johnson as the 2nd producer on this team. Given the matchup, and his 34 minutes, I will give the advantage to TJ today. And I couldn’t care less about the revenge narrative here.
Giannis DOUBTFUL - Oh boy can we take advantage of this. Right now, for some reason, Vegas still thinks the Bucks are going to win this game by 11, even though the total is a sweet 228. I think, if Giannis plays, I would be fine with that total. But with Giannis out, and given the way the Bulls have been playing lately, I will be all over this game tonight. (If you can do sports betting, bet on the Bulls to cover that 11. I mean. I would. A lot.) So let’s break it down. First, Bledsoe (6400) will be matched up against Dunn (5700). In the 2 games since the all-star break, Dunn has put up 12.25 and 15.75 DKP. Now he is matched up against one of of the better PG defenders in the game. Bledsoe, on the other hand, will have a lot more to do with Giannis out and should be one of the first people you look at on this slate, assuming you don’t think this game blows out. Let’s skip to C now, because I can do whatever I want. Here we will see the Lopez twins matched against each other. BroLo (4600) is the better offensive and defensive player at this point, and has a matchup against a Bulls team that struggles against Centers. RoLo (4100) is far too cheap for someone who will be forced into almost 30 minutes and has been getting around 1PPM as it is. Now let’s skip to SF. I hope you can see what I’m doing. Here we have Middleton (6300), someone who is another great play when Giannis misses, matched up against either Otto Porter (5900), who is questionable, or Wayne Selden (3200). Needless to say, if Porter misses, Middleton becomes a better play (although I still like Bledsoe more). If Porter misses, almost all of the usage on this team will be split between the only two people left, LaVine (7400) and Lauri (7900). Both of these dudes have been eating at the same time- in their last game, LaVine had 55 DKP and Lauri got 61. Now they get matched up against Brogdon (5400) and Ilyasova (3400), who should be filling in for Giannis. This makes Markkanen one of my favorite plays of the day with LaVine not far behind him. I also have to point out that Ilyasova starting for that price is someone else you should consider locking in (although I imagine he will be chalk). If the Bucks decide to get crazy and start Mirotic (5400) instead, lock him in there cause he is going to get 50 DKP if they let him get 30 minutes tonight.
Grizzlies - The Grizzlies are never really a fun team to play, but there are a couple really nice spots here. First up, they are matched up with the Lakers, one of the fastest teams in the league. The Grizzlies, who normally see an O/U in their games around 200 will see an O/U of 221.5 against the Lakers, just to show you how many more points and possessions the Grizzlies are expected to get. On top of that, the Lakers give up the 3rd most DKPPG to opposing teams, meaning we can count on all these Grizzlies to exceed their normal projections. So where do we attack? Well, that part is EASY. The Lakers are the worst team in the NBA over the last month against C and 2nd worst against PG. So come onnnnnnnnn down Conley (7600), who can get you more than 50 DKP in this matchup, and JoVal (6400) who will get you 30 minutes and could also push 50 DKP in this matchup. With JJJ out, and Rabb (5600) playing some PF, JoVal is pretty damn close to a lock here, and I can’t wait to get him in there. I also must point out that Delon Wright (3800) is one of the best punts on the day, period. I don’t care what happens between now and lock (apart from, you know, Delon Wright being ruled out). He is a serious threat for over 30 DKP today, and they just haven’t increased his price sufficiently for his new role on this team. Especially if we get some injury news, at which point he is going to be completely overlooked tomorrow. Don’t make the same mistake.
Lakers - Ok so, I’m looking at these Lakers rotations against NO and I am completely blown away. They have 2 Centers now- McGee (5000) and Chandler (3100). I was looking through the logs and saw that, combined, they only got 21 minutes last game and I was confused. What the hell happened? After 6 minutes in the 1st quarter, McGee was taken out for Chandler. Chandler then played about 4.5 minutes before being taken out for LeBron coming back in the game. Neither Center saw the floor again during that half. Chandler didn’t see the floor again that night. So, after they took Chandler out the 5 players on the floor were - Josh Hart, KCP, Rondo, Stephenson and LeBron. So LeBron was playing Center with 4 guards? At the beginning of the 2nd, they brought Ingram in for Stephenson. Ingram got his 3rd foul almost immediately, so they put Kuzma back in (who took over Center). But, had Ingram not fouled, the Lakers would have been running Hart, KCP, Rondo, Ingram, and LeBron for an extended time. So, again, who is playing what??? Ingram is the PF? For the rest of the game, either McGee, Kuzma, or Wagner manned the 5. So why is this important? Because the Grizzlies are now awful against Centers. Look at what Kevin Love just did to them. So this means that I have a lot more interest in LeBron (11200) and Kuzma (6200) since they are going to be getting extended time at the 4 and the 5, where the Grizzlies are going to be the easiest to exploit. If you are gonna play anyone against the slowest team in the league, make it at least one of these two.
KAT and Saric - I had a hard time deciding which of these players I wanted to list at the top before I realized I can just put both up there since I can do whatever I want. Ah, freedom. So, KAT (10100) will be back after an extended rest due to a concussion. He should be able to jump back into his normal minutes in a matchup against a WCS on the road. Oh boy that’s awesome. Also, Saric (4600) is someone people will forget about. He seems to have his normal game where he gives you value, which is fine, and then an occasional ceiling where he goes off. Today’s game, he will be faced up against Harrison Barnes and Bagley at PF. Bagley is, literally, the worst defensive PF in the NBA. He is 93rd out of 93. The fun thing is that Barnes is 50th out of 80something SFs. But that is a different monster than PF. If you take his DRPM and place him in the PF position, he would be 80th of 93. So, basically, Saric is going to be going to a buffet tomorrow and he will be the only thing that’ll be able to stop him from eating as much as he wants. Oh, and, by the by, the Wolves are 20th in pace and the Kings are 3rd so this whole game for the Wolves is fantastic.
Fox and Barnes - This is not a personal injury law firm, as much as it sounds like one. Here I am strongly recommending both Fox (7200) and Barnes (4800). First, MIN is weakest against PGs. Fox has gotten over 40 DKP his last 2 games, and 3 of his last 4 (with the other one 35 DKP). He is going to get a ton of minutes against D Rose, who is 480th out of the 491 players ranked by DRPM. Take advantage of that. Similarly, with all the talk of how Bagley is 93rd out of 93 PF and how Barnes would be 80 out of 93, I didn’t mention who is 90th- Dario Saric. So basically we are going to see Barnes show up to the same buffet Saric is attending. It’s going to be fun to watch them both go off. As risky as all the other players are (from a minutes perspective), Fox and Barnes (Esq.) are the safest bets here from both a minutes and production standpoint.
Sixers vs Pelicans - As much as I would love to just pick one or two players from both teams here, this game is about as good as it gets for this slate. A 238 total with the Pelicans 1.5 point home favorites. Embiid out, which should keep it close. Brow is limited to around 25 minutes and Jrue is limited to around 30 minutes a game, which should also help keep it close. Both teams top 10 in pace. It’s just going to be a beautiful game on both ends, and especially from the perspective of a DFS player. I don’t often say this, but this is one of those games that doesn’t really have a bad play. I mean, Brow is unplayable. But even Jrue (7700) showed you he can put up 50 DKP, even in his limited time. He also showed you he will get up to 33 minutes if the situation arises (and it will in this game). He is going to be completely ignored with the news of his limited minutes, but his price has fallen far enough we can still get him to far exceed his value, especially in this matchup (although he will probably see Butler’s D). Everyone else is unquestionable. Simmons (8000) dropped 52.25 DKP against Portland, 3 rebounds from a 3x2, and this matchup is streets ahead of that one. He is one of the best plays on this entire slate, running away. Going into their last game, I was worried that Randle (7800) was also going to be limited, since he only saw 25 minutes in the game before last, but he saw 38 minutes in the last game, so that fear was completely unfounded and we can deploy Randle like normal. Here, he will be matched up against either Tobias Harris (6800) or Mike Scott (3300). Speaking of which, Randle is the worst ranked C in DRPM, meaning that Harris himself is a fantastic play from a matchup perspective. When you combine that with the usage increase he gets with Embiid out, as well as the increase in Rebounds, he becomes a fantastic 50 DKP upside play at less than 7k. After getting 27 minutes and 38 DKP in the first game Embiid missed, Boban (5500) only managed to get 19 minutes and 14.75 DKP in the last game. With his 2000 price increase, I will call him a wonderful, perfect GPP play but someone who comes with all the risk that that entails. Kenrich (5500), on the other hand, should still see his minutes, even with Moore getting some minutes today. Miller is Doubtful and, honestly, I think Kenrich will get his run no matter what. He has been either getting you 35 or 15 DKP lately, we we’ll have to hope that this will be more of a 35 than 15 game. Elf (4800) is dramatically underpriced for a starting PG getting 38 minutes in a game projected with a 238 total. I mean, seriously. If Boban doesn’t get the run, I expect the extra minutes to fall to Scott, who got 30 minutes and 24.5 DKP last game. Everyone else is just too risky for me to go with them, but if you want to go for a Butler, Redick, or a Diallo I wouldn’t blame you at all. All 3 would be fine GPP plays, but I wouldn’t count on any of them even reaching value today.
Clippers - So there are a couple ways I want to attack the Mavs and it just so happens that some of the Clippers strongest players are right there. First, I want to attack them at Center. Specifically, I want to attack Powell, who will play backup but still get most of the minutes. That sounds like he is going to match up perfectly with Montrezl (6800). That means Montrezl is yet another sub 7k play that can get you an easy 50 DKP tonight. I mean, jeez. If this isn’t a balanced lineup night, I don’t know what one is. You can also attack Dallas from the wing, meaning I want people who are going to shoot 3s. In this case, I want to get LouWill (7000), Gallo (6500) and Shamet (4000) in my player pool, with LouWill and Gallo both given serious consideration for the main lineup given how cheap they are as well. As I will discuss later when talking about the Doncic issue, this is going to be a tough game to figure out how to attack. Obviously Doncic’s health is a big factor and it’s good to know that, should we want to focus on this game, there are plenty of places to go on both sides, where most of the field is going to just ignore this game completely, especially if Doncic turns into a GTD.
Situations to monitor:
Myles Turner QUESTIONABLE - This is the first significant piece of news we will be waiting for tomorrow. Hopefully we find out around noon since the Pacers should have a shootaround tomorrow morning. I am worried they will declare him a GTD but, even if that happens, this game goes off first at 7pm, so we should still be able to plan for everything. His presence makes a huge difference in this game, both on the Pacers side and on the Pistons side. Let’s get into both. First, if Turner (6200) plays without a minutes limit, they are going to need the hell out of him against Andre and Blake. He is priced far too low for his production and people will not be on him cause of the Q tag. If he is limited, yuck to everyone. If he is out, I will be very interested, again, in Sabonis (6300) who saw a nice price increase, but not enough of one for his production in games that Turner misses. O’Quinn (4300) saw his price jump 1300 making him a much more difficult play to stomach. I know he’s getting you around 25 DKP, but at that price, he doesn’t really have a 30-40 DKP ceiling we would need to win an 11 game slate GPP. I will also point out, as always, Collison (5800) is matched against R Jax who is awful. He has been getting you around 30 DKP, so he may not give you the ceiling you need in GPP, but he is a safe producer. Similarly, Bojan (5500) is still flourishing without Oladipo. His price is close to the 6k it needs to be, but we can still find some room here. He can put up 40 DKP, especially if Turner is out. And I assume most people will be off him given the fact this is a game between 2 slow teams with a total of 212.5. The spread, though, is only DET -2.5, so ignoring the game will not benefit you. On the other side, if Turner is out, I will be in love with Drummond (9000) tonight. He will get a 20/20 against O’Quinn. If Turner is in, I will be off Drummond. It’s that simple. I will have more interest in Blake (9100) if Turner is in, given how much more he will need to do. I would also strongly suggest taking a long, hard look at playing Kennard (4400) tonight. He keeps getting more than 30 minutes and producing like 1 PPM. At 4400 that’s just too much to pass up.
Harden QUESTIONABLE - So, Harden (11400) is still nursing that neck injury. Given this is a matchup against the lowly Hawks, I would expect them to exercise caution and rest Harden for another game, but we are going to have to see what they do. Hopefully the news comes out in the morning because, needless to say, it’s hugely significant. Right now Vegas doesn’t have an O/U or a spread while they wait word on Harden, but, this is going to be a 230+ total and the factor that will determine if this is a blowout and, thus, if this is a good game to target, is Harden’s status. So, if he plays, and isn’t limited, I imagine that this game is over pretty quickly. The Hawks are one of the worst defenses in the league, and are also one of the worst at defending both PG and SG (and are worst against PF, for that matter). Harden can be played, and he will probably be significantly underowned based on the injury status. If they decide to play smart and rest him, you pretty much have to consider CP3 (8100), Faried (5500), and Gordon (4600) as close to a lock as you can get on an 11 game slate. CP3 is one of my favorite plays anyway. Even if Harden plays, he’s going to get a ton of usage, and get a matchup against worst-defender-in-the-NBA Trae Young. He just becomes even better if Harden misses. With Collins a terrible defender, the Hawks worst in the NBA against PF, and Faried starting at PF last game (with Harden out), I would be also be all over him in this spot. If you were on him last game, in a much tougher matchup, he rewarded you with 38 DKP and his price fell 300. Gordon also sees a spike in usage with Harden out, as evidenced by the 20 shots he took last game (and 37.75 DKP). I would expect much of the same this game, except he is going to be matched up against either Huerter or Vince Carter or Bembry instead of Durant. On the other side, given the matchup against CP3, I will be hesitant to play Trae (8200) for the first time in weeks. But with Prince and possible Huerter out again, he may have no choice but to take as many shots as he can. I also feel like this makes Collins (7300) and Bazemore (5400) better plays, even though Collins has been up and down lately, and Baze saw his price rise 1000. Baze is fresh off a 38.75 DKP game and I don’t think anyone will be on him today. If Huerter does wind up missing, Baze is going to be one of the first people I lock in. On top of all that, Eric Gordon is one of the worst defenders in the NBA and that’s who Baze would get matched with all game. It would be just too sweet to pass up. As much as I worry about his minutes, Dedmon (5300) gets matched up against a Capela (7000) who is also a bad defender and getting a limited run as it is. He has put up 40+ DKP in his last 2 games. If the Hawks want to keep this one close, he’s gonna need to do that again. So, to sum it up, does Harden play? And if he doesn’t, do you think this game stays close anyway? If so, boy are there are lot of amazing plays.
Doncic QUESTIONABLE - When Vegas doesn’t have a total posted yet, you know the star that’s questionable is really questionable. The main problem we have is that 10 of the 11 games are going to tip off and lock by 8pm. There is ONLY ONE game that goes off after 8pm and that is the DAL/LAC game that locks in at 1030pm. If we don’t know Doncic’s status in the morning, we probably won’t know until 830-9pm at the earliest meaning we are either going to have to play a lot of people in this game so we can move people around, or just ignore the game completely. While I can understand that, I just can’t do that with how many good plays there are here. First, if Doncic (8800) can play without a limit, he should be 10k. Every game. He is 6th in usage in the NBA. He is a threat of a 3x2 every game. He is shooting the ball 20+ times a game. This team is his, and the fortunes of the Mavs will rise and fall with the abilities of this 19 year old kid. I would expect the Mavs to be favorites on the road if Doncic plays and for the Clippers to be favorites if Doncic misses. Either way, this is going to be another game with a 220+ total and a close enough spread. If Doncic plays, the only other Mavs I would have interest are all the PF/Cs we can get- the Clippers are about as bad as can be against both positions, meaning I will be really interested in Powell (4000), Kleber (3800), and Mejri (3200) in that order. Kleber is questionable with an illness as well, so if he misses, I will be all over Powell and Mejri with a rare Dirk Nowitzki (3100) sighting in my player pool. I also love Hardaway (5200) in this matchup and at at that price. I have been saying since the trade he is going to be over 6k soon and, even though he just dropped close to 40 DKP, his price isn’t budging. In this pace up matchup, I will be all over THJ whether or not Doncic is in. If Doncic is out, it also opens up both Brunson (3900) and Burke (3400). Feel free to play Burke if you hate yourself. I know I may. I just refuse to learn my lesson there, huh?
Man, this is going to be a fun one tonight! This is one of the rare times I didn’t even have to use my “situations to be careful of” section!! Everything is either great, or something we have to watch out for news about. Either way, I am excited to see you all on the new chat app I’ll be using. It should be really cool, and I’m excited to give it a try with all of you fantastic people. Best of luck tonight, everyone! And I guess I’ll talk to you all soon.
Can this be my last NBA bet or actually my last bet in life?! Please read
I haven't posted here yet, well, at least haven't posted a detailed story that accounts part of my gambling as I don't think I can describe it all here. I'm 33 years old, married+2, and unfortunately I think I've been gambling since I was 15 or 16. I mostly place bets on sports, sports betting, looking for an edge, but this "edge" is a myth, gambling is a myth, the only ones making money from it are the websites who take cut from each bet or their affiliates promoting their sites - the gamblers are in the bottom of the chain, but yet the addictive behavior is not something that is easy to overcome. Long story, short, this week I even purchased a pick from a website, I know paying for picks is the WORST thing you can ever do to yourself ... the game on Sunday 5 days ago was OKC @ BOSTON in the NBA, the line was 226.5, I took the under, before the game started it was 228.5 - I was basing the bet on the fact it was the day of the Super Bowl, and all games ended early to allow time for people to watch the Super Bowl ... there were only 3 games in the NBA, 2 went under and this only one went with 250 points or something like that ... I put around $2,500 on this one, after losing $2,000 before then, approx. I installed Gamblock on my laptop after this, in fact I did it whilst the game was still played as I saw no way the under is going to win ... Gamblock is a very powerful software but I could still access gambling in my phone and I'm very reluctant to install it in my phone, especially because it blocks too many links, even if the site has just gambling in the domain name - it automatically blocks it - I'm thinking of formatting my laptop because of it as I don't think these blocks will help me long term, not sure anyways .... let's keep on moving with the story. So today is Friday in my time zone (Thursday evening in the US), I used my phone to check the NBA games being played tonight and noticed LA Lakers play @ Boston, when I checked the line like 16 hours before the game, just when the lines went out - the line was 221.5 - and then it went up and up and up and up - to 227.5 ... I told myself this is weird, why the oddsmakers raise the line by so much before the game even started, I was thinking about it throughout the day, wasn't sure if I should take an action or not ... but the more I thought about it the more I was so sure this will hit the under .. I told myself the Lakers don't score well like OKC and this is the same line I had on Sunday. So I even paid $30 for a pick from someone who only had a pick for the total for this game, and unlike the pick on Sunday that was from someone who had 18-2 run in the NBA - this one was moderate, I preferred someone moderate, the pick was said to be coming "straight from the vegas oddsmakers" and this and that ... so I paid for it and then I saw .... yes, he is calling the under too... so I felt this sense of urgency - I have to make this bet, I just have to, I would get lots of my losses back! And here comes the twist: I was about to transfer $4,200 from the Business PayPal account to convert it to Bitcoin and then deposit this Bitcoin to this gambling website ... when I was about to make the transfer PayPal showed the fee for the transfer would be $84 (to send it as "Mass Payment" so the other recipient won't pay a fee). Don't ask me why, I felt on that moment a STOP ... I told myself no, you know what, I won't make that transfer, I am not going to risk another $4,200 from my hard earned income. So somehow I managed NOT to make that deposit - the "sad" or "happy" thing in this story? I had $70 left in my Bitcoin account, I told myself - well, this bet still gotta win so let's put $70 and that's it ... I told myself I would probably feel so sad for not taking that BIG action risking the whole $4k. A gambler's mind .... what can you say. The game is happening now, I woke up around 3am in my time zone to watch the odds, I don't even watch the game itself, I just watch the odds in a popular betting site, I mean I watch the scores/odds with my phone, from time to time I go to other sites, like I don't follow up with every little second of the game ... long story short - I was kinda "sad" in the beginning, LAL and Boston barely scored at the beginning of the 1st quarter, the live line went to 219.5, twice with timeouts - I felt like "oh, you see, too bad you didn't risk the whole $4k on this one, this is going way under" (PS that's how the OKC-BOS game started too, with low scoring in the beginning). Well, the last time I checked the odds was at half time, the live line was 234.5 - they scored much more, that's 7 points more than what I had bet on, and honestly I don't know how it will end - but I do somehow "appreciate" it - that you really cannot tell how these games will go by, and in some way in the 2nd quarter I actually wanted this $70 bet to lose or to be on the way there, I was rooting for them to score as I wanted to be proven, that no matter how I try to approach this - the randomness and the unpredictability of these events along with the bookies' "juice" - is simply not worth it - makes it a game of losers! In fact, I calculated that if I would have to use Bitcoin and then convert it back to PayPal or cash or whatever - the odds I would get won't even be 1.96 - it would be 1.80 or so - because PayPal takes fees, Bitcoin exchanges take fees and what's not!! The only thing that annoys me in all this is that Bitcoin made it possible to bet more easily - before Bitcoin I could have self-excluded myself from a site and that's it - I cannot place bets anymore, and it worked perfectly for me, it was truly a cure for me - this self exclusion. But with Bitcoin you can bet anonymously, no one cares if you had 5-6 previous closed accounts or even if you used the same IP address, you can just deposit again and again ... the only "motivation" out of this is that to buy Bitcoin you have to pay fees - and those fees make the bookies' juice unattractive - so that's the only light at the end of the tunnel for me - because for me if the bet has no value then I have less motivation to place it - but you know what? NO BET HAS ANY VALUE when I come to think about it!! The best value you can find is by not betting at all. Thanks for reading and feel free to respond or share or express what you think.
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Top 50 Impossible Shots of the 2017 NBA Season - YouTube
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