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LMT: A Deep Dive

Edit 1: More ARKQ buying today (~50k shares). Thank you everyone for the positive feedback and discussion!
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) or TL;DR for the non-military types:
LMT is a good target if you want to literally go to the moon, and my PT is $690.26 in two years (more than 2x from current levels). Justification and some possible trade ideas are listed below, just CTRL-F “Trade Ideas”. I hope you guys enjoy this work and would appreciate any discussion or feedback. I hope to catch you in the comments.
Team,
We interrupt today’s regularly scheduled short squeeze coverage to discuss a traditionally boring stock, LMT (Lockheed Martin), with significant upside potential. To be clear, this is NOT a short squeeze target like many reddit posts are keying on. I hope that this piece sparks discussion, but if you are just looking for short squeeze content, all I have to say is BUY, HOLD, and GODSPEED.
The source of inspiration for me writing this piece is threefold; first, retail investors are winning, and I believe that we will continue to win if we continue to identify opportunities in the market. In my view, the stock market has always been a place for the public to shine a light on areas of innovation that real Americans are excited about and proud to be a part of. Online communities have stolen the loudspeaker from hedge fund managers and returned it to decentralized online democracies that quickly and proudly shift their weight behind ideas they believe in. In GME’s case, it was a blatant smear campaign to destroy a struggling business. I think that we should continue this campaign by identifying opportunities in the market and running with them. It may sound overly idealistic, but if reddit can take on the hedge funds, I non-ironically believe that we can quite literally take good companies researching space technology to the moon. I think LMT may be one of several stocks to help get us there.
Second, a video where the Secretary of State of Massachusetts argues that internet boards are full of a bunch of unsophisticated, thoughtless traders really ticked me off. This piece is designed to show that ‘the little guy’ is ready to get into the weeds, understand business plans, and outpace analysts that think companies like Tesla are overvalued by comparing them to Toyota. That is a big reason that I settled on an old, large, slow growth company to do a deep-dive on, and try my best to show some of the abysmal predictive analysis major ‘research firms’ do on even some of the most heavily covered stocks. LMT is making moves, and the suits on wall street are 10 steps behind. At the time of writing this piece, Analyst Estimates range from 330-460 (what an insane range).
Third, and most importantly, I am in the US military, and I think that it is fun to go deep into the financials of the defense sector. I think that it helps me understand the long-term growth plans of the DoD, and I think that I attack these deep-dives with a perspective that a lot of these finance-from-day-one cats do not understand. Even if no one ever looks at this work, I think that taking the time to write pieces like this makes me a better Soldier, and I will continue to do it in my spare time when I am feeling inspired. I wrote a piece on Raytheon Technologies (Ticker: RTX) 6 months ago, and I think it was well-received. I was most convicted about RTX in the defense sector, but I have since shifted to believing LMT is the leader in the defense space. I am long both, though. If this inspires anyone else to do similar research on other companies, or sparks discussion in the community, that is just a bonus. Special shout-out to the folks that read more than just the TL;DR, but if you do just read the TL;DR, I love you too!
Now let us get into it:
Leadership
I generally like to invest in companies that are led by people that seem to have integrity. Jim Taiclet took the reins at LMT in June of last year. While on active duty, he served as a C-141B Starlifter pilot (a retired LMT Aircraft). After getting out he went to work for the American Tower Corporation (Ticker: AMT). His first day at American Tower was September 10, 2001. The following day, AMT lost 13 employees in the World Trade Center attack. He stayed with the company, despite it being decimated by market uncertainty in the wake of 9/11. He was appointed CEO of the very same company in 2004. Over a 16 year tenure as CEO of AMT the company market cap 20x’d. He left his position as CEO of AMT in March of last year, and the stock stagnated since his departure, currently trading at roughly the same market cap as to when he left.
Jim Taiclet was also appointed to be the chairman of the board this week, replacing the previous CEO. Why is it relevant that the CEO came from a massive telecommunications company?
Rightfully, Taiclet’s focus for LMT is bringing military technology into the modern era. He wants LMT to be a first mover in the military 5G space, military application of AI space, the… space space, and the hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) space. These areas are revolutionary for the boomer defense sector. We will discuss this in more detail later when we cover the company’s P/E multiple and why it is absolute nonsense.
It is not a surprise to me that they brought Taiclet on during the pandemic. He led AMT through adversity before, and LMT’s positioning during the pandemic is tremendous relative to the rest of the sector, thanks in large part to some strong strategic moves and good investments by current and past leadership. I think that Taiclet is the right CEO for the job.
In addition to the new CEO, the new Secretary of Defense, Secretary Lloyd Austin, has strong ties to the defense sector. He was formerly a board member for RTX. He is absolutely above reproach, and a true leader of character, but I bring this up not to suggest that he will inappropriately serve in the best interest of defense contractors, but to suggest that he speaks the language of these companies effectively. I do not anticipate that the current administration poses as significant of a risk to the defense sector as many analysts seem to believe. This will be expanded in the headwinds section below.
SPACE
Cathie Wood and the ARK Invest team brought a lot of attention to the space sector when the ARKX, The ARK Space Exploration ETF, Form N-1A was officially filed through the SEC. More recently, ARK Invest published their Big Ideas 2021 Annual Report and dedicated an entire 7-page chapter to Orbital Aerospace, a new disruptive innovation platform that the ARK Team is investigating. This may have helped energize wall street to re-look their portfolios and their investments in space technology, but it was certainly not the first catalyst that pushed the defense industry in the direction of winning the new space race.
In June 2018, then President Trump announced at the annual National Space Council that “it is not enough to merely have an American presence in space, we must have American dominance in space. So important. Therefore, I am hereby directing the Department of Defense (DoD) and Pentagon to immediately begin the process necessary to establish a Space Force as the sixth branch of the Armed Forces". Historically, Department of Defense space assets were under the control of the Air Force. By creating a separate branch of service for the United States Space Force (USSF), the DoD would allocate a Chairman of Space Operations on the Joint Chiefs of Staff and clearly define the budget for space operations dedicated directly to the USSF. At present, this budget is funneled from the USAF’s budget. The process was formalized in December of 2019, and the DoD has appropriated ~$15B to the USSF in their first full year of existence according to the FY21 budget.
Among the 77 spacecraft that are controlled by the USSF, 29 of them are Lockheed Martin GPS satellites, 6 of them are Lockheed Martin Space-Based Infrared Systems (SBIRS), and LMT had a hand in creating and/or manufacturing for several of the other USSF efforts. The Next Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared Missile Warning Satellites (also known as Next-Gen OPIR) were contracted out to both Northrup Grumman (Ticker: NOC) and LMT. LMT’s contract is currently set at $4.9B, NOC’s contract is set at $2.37B.
Tangentially related to the discussion of space is the discussion of hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs). HGVs have exoatmospheric and atmospheric implications, but I think that their technology is extremely important to driving margins down for both space exploration and terrestrial point-to-point travel. LMT is leading the charge for military HGV research. They hold contracts with the Navy, Air Force, and Army to develop HGVs and hypersonic precision fires. The priority for HGV technology accelerated significantly when Russia launched their Avangard HGV in December of 2019. Improving the technology for HGVs is a critical next-step in maintaining US hegemony, but also maintaining leadership in both terrestrial and exoatmospheric travel.
LARGE SCALE COMBAT OPERATIONS (LSCO)
The DoD transitioning to Large-Scale Combat Operations (LSCO) as the military’s strategic focus. This is a move away from an emphasis on Counter-Insurgency operations. LSCO requires effective multi-domain operations (MDO), which means effective and integrated strategies regarding land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace. To have effective MDO, the DoD is seeking systems that both expand capabilities against peer threats and increase the ability to track enemy units and communicate internally. This requires a modernizing military strategy that relies heavily on air, missile, and sensor modernization. Put simply, the DoD has decided to start preparing for peer or near-peer adversaries (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea) rather than insurgencies. For this reason, I believe that increased Chinese and Russian tensions are, unfortunate as it may be, a boon to the defense industry. This is particularly true in the missiles/fires and space industry, as peer-to-peer conflicts are won by leveraging technological advantages.
There are too many projects to cover in detail, but some important military technologies that LMT is focusing on to support LSCO include directed energy weapons (lasers) to address enemy drone technology, machine learning / artificial intelligence (most applications fall under LMT’s classified budget, but it is easy to imagine the applications of AI in a military context), and 5G to increase battlefield connectivity. These projects are all nested within the DoD’s LSCO strategy, and position LMT as the leader in emergent military tech. NOC is the other major contractor making a heavy push in the modernization direction, but winners win, and I think a better CEO, balance sheet, and larger market cap make LMT the clear winner for aiding the DoD in a transition toward LSCO.
SECTOR COMPARISON (BACKLOG)
The discussion of LSCO transitions well into the discussion of defense contractor backlogs. Massive defense contracts are not filled overnight, so examining order backlogs is a relatively reliable way to gauge the interest of the DoD in a defense contractor’s existing or emerging products. For my sector comparison, I am using the top 6 holdings of the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (Ticker: ITA). I hate this ETF, and ETFs like it (DFEN) because of their massively outsized exposure to aerospace, and undersized allocation to companies like LMT. LMT is only 18% smaller than Boeing (Ticker: BA) but is only 30.4% of the exposure of BA (18.46% of the fund is BA, only 5.62% of the fund is LMT). Funds of this category are just BA / RTX hacks. I suggest building your own pie on a site like M1 Finance (although they are implicated in the trade restriction BS… please be advised of that… hoping other brokerages that are above board will offer similar UIs like the pie design… just wanted to be clear there) if you are interested in the defense sector.
The top 6 holdings of ITA are:
Boeing Company (Ticker: BA, MKT CAP $110B) at 18.46%
Raytheon Technologies (Ticker: RTX, MKT CAP $101B) at 17.84%
Lockheed Martin (Ticker: LMT, MKT CAP $90B) at 5.62%
General Dynamics Corporation (Ticker: GD, MKT CAP $42B) 4.78%
Teledyne Technologies Incorporated (Ticker: TDY, MKT CAP $13B) at 4.74%
Northrop Grumman Corporation (Ticker: NOC, MKT CAP $48B) at 4.64%
As a brief aside, please look at the breakdowns of ETFs before buying them. The fact that ITA has more exposure to TDY than NOC and L3Harris is wild. Make sector ETFs balanced how you want them to be balanced and it will be more engaging, and you will likely outperform. I digress.
Backlogs for defense companies can easily be pulled from their quarterly reports. Here are the current backlogs in the same order as before, followed by a percentage of their backlog to their current market cap. All numbers are pulled from January earning reports unless otherwise noted with an * because they are still pending.
Boeing Company backlog (Commercial: $282B, Defense: $61B, Foreign Military Sales (FMS, categorized by BA as ‘Global’): 21B, Total Backlog 364B): BA’s backlog to market cap is a ratio of 3.32, which is strong, but most of that backlog comes from the commercial, not the defense side. Airlines have been getting decimated, I am personally not interested in having much of my backlog exposed to commercial pressures when trying to invest in a defense play. Without commercial exposure, their defense only backlog ratio is .748. This is extremely low. I understand that this does not do BA justice, but I am keying in on defense exposure, and I am left thoroughly unsatisfied by that ratio. Also, we have seen several canceled contracts already on the commercial side.
Raytheon Technologies backlog (Defense backlog for all 4 subdivisions: 67.3B): Raytheon only published a defense backlog in this quarter’s report. That is further evidence to me that the commercial aerospace side of the house is getting hammered. They have a relatively week backlog to market cap as well, putting them at a ratio of .664, worse off than the BA defense backlog.
Lockheed Martin backlog (Total Backlog: $147B): This backlog blows our first two defense backlogs out of the water with a current market cap to backlog ratio of 1.63.
General Dynamics Corporation backlog (Total Backlog: $89.5B, $11.6B is primarily business jets, but it is difficult to determine how much of their aerospace business is commercial): Solid 2.13 ratio, still great 1.85 if you do not consider their aerospace business. The curveball here for me is that GD published a consolidated operating profit of $4.1B including commercial aerospace, whereas LMT published a consolidated operating profit of $9.1B. This makes the LMT ratio of profit/market cap slightly in favor of LMT without accounting for the GD commercial aerospace exposure. This research surprised me; I may like GD more than I originally assumed I would. Still prefer LMT.
Teledyne Technologies Incorporated backlog (Found in the earnings transcript, $1.7B): This stock is not quite in the same league as the other major contractors. This is an odd curveball that a lot of the defense ETFs seem to have too much exposure to. They have a weak backlog, but they are a smaller growing company. I am not interested in this at all. It has a backlog ratio of .129.
Northrop Grumman Corporation backlog ($81B): Strong numbers here. I see NOC and LMT as the two front-runners in the defense sector. I like LMT more because I like their exposure to AI, 5G, and HGVs more than NOC, but I think this is a great alternative to LMT if you like the defense sector. Has a ratio of 1.69, slightly edging out LMT on this metric. LMT edges out NOC on margins by ~.9%, though, which has significant implications when considering the depth of the LMT backlog.
The winners here are LMT, GD, and NOC. BA is attractive if you think anyone will have enough money to buy new planes. BA and RTX are both getting hammered by commercial aerospace exposure right now and are much more positioned as recovery plays. That said, LMT and NOC both make money now, and will regardless of the impact of the pandemic. LMT is growing at a slightly faster rate than NOC. Both are profit machines, but I like LMT’s product portfolio and leadership a lot more.
FREE CASH FLOW
Despite the pandemic, LMT had the free cash flow to be able to pay a $2.60 per share dividend. This maintains their ~3% yearly dividend rate. They had a free cash flow of $6.4B. They spent $3.9 of that in share repurchases and dividend payouts. That leaves 40% of that cash to continue to strengthen one of the most stalwart balance sheets outside of big tech on the street. Having this free cash flow allowed them to purchase Aerojet Rocketdyne for $4.4B in December. They seem flexible and willing to expand and take advantage of their relative position during the pandemic. This is a stock that has little downside risk and significant upside potential. It is always reassuring to me to know that at the end of the day, a company is using its profit to continue to grow.
HEADWINDS
New Administration – This is more of an unknown than a headwind. The Obama Administration was not light on military spending, and the newly appointed SecDef is unlikely to shy away from modernizing the force. Military defense budgets may get lost in the political shuffle, but nothing right now suggests that defense budgets are on the chopping block.
Macroeconomic pressure – The markets are tumultuous in the wake of GME. Hedgies are shaking in their boots, and scared money weighed on markets the past week. If scared money continues to exert pressure on the broader equity markets, all boomer stocks are likely weighed down by slumping markets.
Non-meme Status – The stocks that are impervious to macroeconomic pressures in the above paragraph are the stonks that we, the people, have decided to support. From GME to IPOE, there is a slew of stonks that are watching and laughing from the green zone as the broader markets slip deeper into the red zone. Unless sentiment about LMT changes, I see no evidence that LMT will remain unaffected by a broader economic downturn (despite showing growth YoY during a pandemic).
TAILWINDS
Aerojet Rocketdyne to the Moon – Cathie Wood opened up a $39mil position in LMT a few weeks ago, and this was near the announcement of ARKX. The big ideas 2021 article focuses heavily on satellite technology, deep learning, and HGVs. I think that the AR acquisition suggests that vertical integration is a priority for LMT. They even fielded a question in their earnings call about whether they were concerned about being perceived as a monopoly. Their answer was spot on—the USFG and DoD have a vested interest in the success of defense companies. Why would they discourage a defense contractor from vertical integration to optimize margins?
International Tensions – SolarWinds has escalated US-Russia tensions. President Biden wants to look tough on China. LSCO is a DoD-wide priority.
5G.Mil – We still do not have a lot of fidelity on what this looks like, but the military would benefit in a lot of ways if we had world-wide access to the rapid transfer of encrypted data. Many units still rely on Vietnam-era technology signal technology with abysmal data rates. There are a lot of implications if the code can be cracked to win a DoD 5G contract.
TRADE IDEAS
Price Target: LMT is currently at a P/E of ~14. Verizon has roughly the same. LMT’s 5-year P/E ratio average is ~17. NOC is currently at a P/E of ~20. TSLA has a P/E Ratio of 1339 (disappointingly not 1337). P/E is a useless metric because no one seems to care about it. My point is that LMT makes a lot of money, and other companies that are valued at much higher multiples do not make any money at all. LMT’s P/E ratio is that of a boomer stock that has no growth potential. LMT’s P/E is exactly in line with the Aerospace and Defense Industry P/E ratio standard. LMT’s new CEO is pushing the industry in a new direction. I will arbitrarily choose a P/E ratio of 30, because it is half of the software industry average, and it is a nice round number. Plus, stock values are speculative and nonsense anyway.
Share price today: $321.82
Share price based on LMT average 5-year P/E: $384.08 (I see this as a short term PT, reversion to the mean)
Share price with a P/E of 30: $690.26
Buy and Hold: Simple. Doesn’t take much thought. Come back in a year or two and be happy with your tendies (and a few dividends to boot).
LEAPS Call Debit Spread (Based on last trade prices): Buy $375 C 20 JAN 23 for $26.5, Sell $450 C 20 JAN 23 for $12. Total Cost $14.5 for a spread width of $75. Max gain 517% per spread. Higher risk strategy.
LEAPS: Buy $500 C 20 JAN 23 for $7.20. Very high-risk strat. If the price target is hit within two years, these would be in the money $183 per contract for a gain of 2500%. This is the casino strat.
SOURCES
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/news/features/2020/james-taiclet-from-military-pilot-to-successful-ceo.html
https://www.warren.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/in-response-to-senator-warrens-questions-secretary-of-defense-nominee-general-lloyd-austin-commits-to-recusing-himself-from-raytheon-decisions-for-four-years
https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2019-08-30-Lockheed-Martins-Expertise-in-Hypersonic-Flight-Wins-New-Army-Work
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/capabilities/hypersonics.html
https://research.ark-invest.com/hubfs/1_Download_Files_ARK-Invest/White_Papers/ARK%E2%80%93Invest_BigIdeas_2021.pdf?hsCtaTracking=4e1a031b-7ed7-4fb2-929c-072267eda5fc%7Cee55057a-bc7b-441e-8b96-452ec1efe34c
https://www.deseret.com/2018/6/19/20647309/twitter-reacts-to-trump-s-call-for-a-space-force
https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/fy2021/fy2021_Budget_Request_Overview_Book.pdf
https://www.airforcemag.com/lockheed-receives-up-to-4-9-billion-for-next-gen-opir-satellites/
https://spacenews.com/northrop-grumman-gets-2-3-billion-space-force-contract-to-develop-missile-warning-satellites/
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/capabilities/directed-energy/laser-weapon-systems.html
https://emerj.com/ai-sector-overviews/lockheed-martins-ai-applications-for-the-military/
https://www.defenseone.com/business/2020/07/new-ceo-wants-lockheed-become-5g-playe167072/
https://www.wsj.com/articles/defense-firms-expect-higher-spending-11548783988
https://www.etf.com/ITA#efficiency
https://s2.q4cdn.com/661678649/files/doc_financials/2020/q4/4Q20-Presentation.pdf
https://investors.rtx.com/static-files/dfd94ff7-4cca-4540-bc4b-4e3ba92fc646
https://investors.lockheedmartin.com/static-files/64e5aa03-9023-423a-8908-2aae8c7015ac
https://s22.q4cdn.com/891946778/files/doc_financials/2020/q4/GD_4Q20_Earnings_Highlights-Outlook-Final.pdf
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/27/teledyne-technologies-inc-tdy-q4-2020-earnings-cal/
https://investor.northropgrumman.com/static-files/6e6e117f-f656-4c68-ba7f-3dc53c2dd13a
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I tried calculating Lester Crest's Net Worth

TLDR: $47,444,937
Note: I am not saying this is his exact net worth. This is an estimate, given off all the numbers in the game. If you see something wrong, please tell me and I will account for it.
Rules: Best money making crews were used to figure this out. All online Jobs are in Hard Mode
Trying to see how much Lester has in his trading account at the beginning of the game is near impossible, as his screen is too blurry in the cutscenes. I’m going to guess that he has about $500,000 leftover from the previous scores. Ballparking his house is about $350,000. I’d say that he’s day trading about 35% of his saving, which equates to $175,000. Let's say that he makes about an 8% return on the market each year, for nine consecutive years. That equates to $350,000. With $325,000 in savings and at the end of nine years, $350,000 in the market, adds up to $1,025,000, including his house. His factory is about $1,200,000, meaning that the total is now $2,225,000. The first few months of GTAO take place before story mode, meaning that the Fleeca job is probably the first Job he does, as he refers to our character while casing the jewel store. His Declasse Asea is $12,000 and the Granger is $35,000, according to Southern San Andreas Super Autos. The Fleeca Job pays $143,750. I'm going to say this is how much Lester gives the players. He probably takes about 20% of the entire thing, because Trevor notes that without him they have an extra 20%. Lester would then get $35,937. Before the Jewel Store Job, Lester influences the market by killing Jay Norris. I don’t know “Life-Invaders” competition, so I can’t figure this one out. With the Jewel Store Job next, Lester makes $342,462, only with the best gunman. The best Crew for the Paleto Score nets Lester $210,888. The Bureau Raid gets Lester another $39,839. For the sake of continuity, I’m going to place the Pacific Standard before the Big Score. Again, 20% for Lester gets him $312,500. The Big Score gets Lester a whopping $24,192,000. This brings his total to $27,405,626. After doing the math for the assassination missions, I say that Lester has about $46,392,437. The reason I say this is because no one other than someone who has control of the market itself, dumps all their money without having anything in their savings, or to pay off the margin. After the regular Jobs come Doomsday. I could actually use some help, as I only gave Lester 20% of the payouts, and I’m not sure if I’m right or not. Anyway, going off my math tells me that Act 1=$162,500, Act 2=$237,500, and Act 3=$300,000. This gives us a total of $47,092,437. With Casino, we do one of each Job, all with different targets, as well as the worst guns and cars, and best hacker. But this doesn’t matter since we know he’s only getting 5%. SS+Cash=$129,250, BC+Art=$117,500, and Aggro+Gold=$129,250-$0. Everything accounted for = $47,444,937 - $47,315,687
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Non-combat $100,000/hr for noobs.

I haven't played GTA V/Online since 2014, so things have changed a bit. It's all quite overwhelming for newcomers or returning players, especially if you get the Criminal Enterprise Starter Pack like I did.
I snagged my Motorcycle Club, my Bunker, and free vehicles, and proceeded to follow guides for making money with those businesses. I sank too much into them, to the tune of getting down to $500,000 with no profit coming in because I was getting skunked as a solo player, even in a solo public session.
The most difficult part of it all is dealing with the sharpshooter NPC's. These guys are ridiculous! So, we're aiming for non-combat jobs.
That said, here's what I recommend folks do: - Snag the Criminal Enterprise Starter Pack for the $1,000,000. - Link your Amazon/Twitch Prime account with your Rockstar Social Club account to snag another $200,000 (and another $200,000 after 4 weeks consecutive play, supposedly). - Grab a bulletproof helmet ($20,000) from a clothing store, and ensure it's always equipped. (You may skip this, as it's really not necessary, but will help if you get pinned somewhere.) - Purchase a Mini SMG ($8,900). - Purchase a Pegassi Bati 801 motorcycle ($15,000). - Play Mission Repo - Simeonics until Rank 16 (Pause Menu > Online > Jobs > Rockstar Created > Missions > Repo - Simeonics). Profit $16,170. - Once Rank 16, play the Chasers II mission (Pause Menu > Online > Jobs > Rockstar Created > Missions > Chasers II). Queue into it, select Hard, and on the next screen, select Closed so no one else joins so you don't have to wait for them. Start a timer once you load in, go grab the car, ignoring people shooting at you (they'll stop once you get close enough to the destination), and turn in the vehicle once you pass 4:00. Profit $9,480. - Repeat - Once you get to $1,500,000, see this post or watch this video to start making $240,000/hr until you reach $2,200,000.

Notes for fellow noobs

Snacks are how you regain health. Your free CEO office has an executive assistant that provides snacks for free. These can be consumed on-the-fly via the Interaction Menu at Inventory > Snacks.
Ammo can be purchased for your currently-held weapons via the Interaction menu at Inventory > Ammo.
Visit the casino once per day (real time). No matter what, it's worth the drive, even if just for a few thousand RP.
At this point in the GTA Online lifespan, your goal should be to obtain a submarine ($2,200,000) in order to do the Perico Heist. So, after grabbing your free cash, and spending some dough on the aforementioned items, you should be sitting at $1,156,100 before even starting any jobs. You're practically halfway to the submarine already...
The reason we wait for 4:00 is due to the way payout is calculated. Further reading here.

Math

I tried a bunch of things, but what boiled down to being most profitable-to-ease of completion, in order of best to okay, were: 1. Chasers II 2. Repo - Simeonics 3. San Andreas Seoul 4. Warehouse 1x Crate Pickup & Delivery
``` | Job | Avg Time to Complete | Net Profit | Avg Profit per Minute | Profit per Hour | | ------------------ | -------------------- | ---------- | --------------------- | --------------- | | Repo - Simeonics | 10:00 | $16,170.00 | $1,617.00 | $97,020.00 | | Chasers II | 6:45 | $9,480.00 | $1,404.44 | $84,266.67 | | San Andreas Seoul | 9:00 | $11,380.00 | $1,264.44 | $75,866.67 | | Warehouse 1x Crate | 8:00 | $9,000.00 | $1,125.00 | $67,500.00 |
Sample Size for each: 10 ```

Conclusions

Taking into account the costs for each warehouse, we'd have to do roughly 9 hours of solo 1x crate jobs before breaking even. However, these will come in handy with vehicle cargo if I decide to do that in the future.
While Repo - Simeonics is more profitable, it's also slightly more difficult. Taking your Bati 801 to the airport twice to grab two cars takes some time, and has more room for error, especially considering the wanted level at the beginning. That said, the only choke point is at the entrance/exit of the airport, and really isn't an issue. But it is worth noting.
Chasers II can be done in around 2:00, with 2:00 of waiting in Simeon's parking lot to turn in. This can definitely be more boring, so I am currently switching it up between Chasers II and Simeonics.
Once you're ~ Rank 40, you should be able to do some better missions, as mentioned in this post, but you should have already done the Perico Heist by then, and at that point the missions will be less than what you can make with Perico.

Testing Parameters:

Each mission was timed from the beginning of loading into the queue to loading back into free roam.
Crate jobs were timed from leaving the CEO laptop, picking up, taking to warehouse, selling and dropping off, to returning to the CEO office. Office used was Maze Bank West, while warehouses used were White Widow Garage ($360,000) and Convenience Store Lockup ($250,000).
All tests performed using PlayStation 5 with MTU set to 750. With default MTU setting, queuing into missions may be quicker, and therefore even more profitable.

Questions

Why not Sightseer?
Sightseer, the CEO/VIP Work, is definitely non-combat. However, there are so many variables here, that it's just not worth it. You're usually taken on a wild goose chase throughout the northern section of the map. You need a fast airborne vehicle for Sightseer to be worth it. But even then, you probably already have better means of income.
That said, give it a shot! Even if it takes you all 15:00 to complete, it's still $20,000 ($25,000 if completed in under 5:00, but let's not kid ourselves). This comes out to $1,333/min if done in 15:00, or $2,000/min if done in 10:00.

Changelog

12/30/2020 - Added Questions section - Added information regarding Sightseer. - Added information regarding CEO Vehicle Cargo.
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Cayo Perico: My experience

I've done the Heist three times now with duos, I'm pretty sure I could even do it solo now.
Make sure you have the Drainage Tunnel option unlocked by swimming behind the compound during the scope out. UPDATE: Make sure you complete the Torch Prep as well! The Torch Prep will not be available in the submarine until you scope out the Drainage Tunnel infiltration point.
If solo, trios, or quads, Make sure you have bolt cutters by the main bay.
I enter through the drainage tunnel putting me right in the compound. UPDATE: I've used the submarine and the halo jump, but I imagine any vehicle will work. If you use the sub it will give you scuba gear, so avoid the pools while you're in the compound, otherwise it will put the scuba gear back on and remove your active weapon. Once you get out of the pool you'll lose 3-5 seconds taking the gear back off.
I suggest you take out all the guys stealthfully while taking out as few cameras as possible, 1 or 2 will be necessary unless you are really patient.
If you're doing it solo you don't need to worry about the key cards or gate keys. If you are doing duos+, then one key card is held by a guard, the other is up in Rubio's office.
Once you get to Rubio's office there will be a fingerprint hack (its easy once you understand how it works) and get the files using the combination given to you in the basement, don't exit through the gate, go back into the compound, grab the secondaries in the compound (duos+), and exit through the main entrance, that causes a save-state, so if you die you don't have to start all over. If you are duos your loot bag should be full. If you are in duos, I recommend grabbing the painting first and is much gold as you can carry, don't bother with the cash.
If you haven't alerted anybody by then, make your way down to the main dock, if solo, or trios, then get the secondary loot there, grab a boat and drive away from the island. Your escape is undefined, so even if you don't make it to your designated escape route, you can leave the island in any direction.
If you are in quads, there's a good chance your loot bags won't be full, at that point you can decide whether you want to go and grab more secondaries, or leave the island while still in one piece.
If you have been caught, kill everybody and book it out the main entrance towards the main dock where you can grab a boat and GTFO. Because I was in duos I had right around 2mil each time, the one time I set the guards off on the way out I only lost 60-80k.
From what I can see you cant hold more than 800k in your loot bag, I may be wrong though.
Potential cut: 6mil
SOLO: 1.1-1.9 Mil
DUOS: 1.1-2.7Mil
TRIOS: 1.1-3.5Mil
QUADS: 1.1-4.3Mil
That Is my experience. If anybody has any good useful information there, I'm sure it would be greatly appreciated to the community. Such as:
*Better ways out of the compound
*Secondary Target values
*Any way to get the full potential 6mil? (During my scope out I had 4.2mil in Secondary targets. That left a total of 5.3mil, I was probably missing two secondary targets somewhere on the island)
*Anything I may have missed
UPDATE: For those of you wondering how the payouts compare to the Diamond Casino Heist.
The payouts for the DC heist hard modes are as followed, not including aggressive.
Cash: don't bother, reset your heist
Artwork: 2.7mil - 2mil split - 100k per 5%
Gold: 2.8-3.1mil -2.1-2.4 mil split - 105k-120k per 5%
Artwork can be done with DUOS (1mil each depending on cut) but gold has to be done with TRIOS (1.2mil 50%, 600k 25%) unless you want to leave 250k on the table. Which Gold DUOS would pay the sililar to Artwork DUOS.
Your best opportunities to make money on GTA online are going to be Cayo Perico SOLO or DUOS and Diamond Casino DUOS.
On another note: I haven't timed it yet, but it seems to take less time to do all of the Cayo Perico preps than the Diamond Casino Preps (Aside from identifying secondary contents). The Diamond Casino Heist takes 15-25 minutes when done correctly with Big Con or Silently & Sneaky while the Cayo Perico heist can be completed in 7-15 minutes SOLO and DUOS.
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Due to some legal and gambling restrictions, players residing in Afghanistan, Algeria, Albania, Angola, Cambodia, Guyana, Ecuador, Hong Kong, Iran, Indonesia, Israel, Kuwait, Myanmar, Lao, North Korea, Nicaragua, Namibia, Philippines, Papua New Guinea, Panama, Pakistan, Spain, Syria, Singapore, Sudan, South Korea, Taiwan, Uganda, United Kingdom, United States, Zimbabwe and Yemen are prohibited to register and play at Superlines Casino.
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Reliability and Security

The Superliners Casino implements 128 bit SSL or Secure Socket Layer technology to keep the transaction details of all the players safe and secure. At the same time, this sophisticated encryption technology eliminates all risks associated with online banking. The online gaming system is managed to highly professional standards to deliver secure service for all players.
Superlines Casino maintains full confidentiality over all information of players, and it is not shared outside the organisation. Upon registration, you are given a personal account holder and choose a proper username and password. It is your responsibility for keeping the information safe from any unauthorised access.
Complete privacy is provided to players while making online banking transactions for deposits and withdrawals. Authentic checks are carried out from time to time so that your personal and confidential details like bank account number, email address and contact number are not compromised.
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Summary

If you are searching for an ultimate online casino experience, it does not get anything better than Superlines Casino. It maintains an incredible real casino environment with staff members working round the clock to offer an immersive gaming experience to players. The casino uses some of the best gaming providers in the market for top quality games like online slots, table games, video poker etc.
All the casino games are available for free play where you get to understand the game before you start playing for real money. At the same time, the casino is licensed and regulated by Curacao which means that all games are fair and random.
Superlines Casino receives a big THUMBS UP from our team members at Top10-CasinoSites.Net, and we recommend this operator for all the newbie as well as experienced gamblers. We highly recommend checking out the list of restricted countries from the list above before playing. If you are eligible, you must register and start playing your favourite games either free or as a real money player.
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